Member Info for wasarunner

also those numbers assume a decent nickel price of course. Nickel price probably matters more and more closer to production we get for valuation. Consensus is it should be pretty good. I noticed on the calculator pages Horizonte have mentioned Woodmac long term incentive price $26k+/t. At $26k/t - well, the NPV is pretty big :)

Hi Smoggy for de-risk personally if I were looking at it (I'm considered pessimistic here btw) I'd be looking 20p post finance when the dust settles - around £400-500mcap but maybe not till 2022. Depends on how many shares in issue.

At production I'd be looking for 30p end of 2023 + some upside from Vermelho.

If you are thinking longer term than anybody's guess but north of 30p. At 30p and my 'worst case' 2.5bn shares you're looking at £750mcap. To be valued higher than that there has to be a clear pathway for Stage 2 Araguaia or something happening with Vermelho.

Others may have higher targets. 50p is possible probably in 2023-25 but it needs progress on Vermelho and personally feel we want less dilution the better :)

Two things which can rapidly influence the price here though to bear in mind:
- unexpected news on financing (for example, accelerated Stage2 A or a JV on V)
- an offer for the company

Either/both of the above are possible in any of the next 12 months or indeed any time after that.

Hi notready1 yes we might have slightly different strategies but its all for the same thing - making money! I've diversified around 10% away from Horizonte I had my eye on ACP quite a while (I had an opening stake from last year) but added heavily. I always liked the mine dynamics but needed a better feel for political risk before I invested more heavily here. I've taken smaller position with some others but for now ACP is my biggest non Horizonte play. I'm here for production but may de-risk a bit as we go - would like to run my main holding for a lot longer though. One of the attractions here is the 1 year build - Horizonte its 31 months + Vermelho which isn't at DFS yet. There's pros and cons in investing in oil tankers and speedboats (metaphorically speaking!) So I've tried to blend some investments which have upside on anything from 1-10 years and ACP has many catalysts I can see for both short and long term upside.

It'll get sold on news of course and any potential rerate but that's all part of the journey. Just on NPV/IRR basis the valuation at the moment is peanuts.

added again this morning now close to 4m shares and will leave it there. There is clearly a seller rushing to get out this morning these look like all sells to me. This is now quite a chunky holding for me and would like to run my holding through to production.

24-Feb-21 08:12:29 4.11 200,000 Sell* 4.10 4.30 8,220 O
24-Feb-21 08:12:17 4.11 300,000 Sell* 4.10 4.30 12.33k O
24-Feb-21 08:11:49 4.15 300,000 Sell* 4.10 4.30 12.45k

None taken jd all good.

stevedd in Horizonte 3 years already and plan to hold till 2025. ACP likewise though I may sell some (of both) along the way depending on progress. The value in these miners is for the cycle. I don't see graphite being out of all battery chemistries as a significant risk as I think there will be so many batteries needed that many chemistries will be supported for ages. I'm very bullish on EV.

As I see it then here, licence is essential, after that the quality of the product and the mine economics should make financing hopefully straightforward (that and the mine economics - the capex is very modest - for e.g. Horizonte is $463m by comparison!)

I also like the fact it is a 1 year build and we are only utilising initially 25% of the resource. I only have 1 miner I own shares in which is producing right now. Armadale could become the second one...

hi stevedd3 - 2140377 shares today if I've marked it all up correctly. I added to a more modest prior position. My goal here is around 3.5m shares. I have a main holding over on HZM at a very large number of shares and looked to diversify a bit.

To be really honest I thought I'd struggle to buy in bulk and would need to stagger it out over this week. Surprised I could get that many and relatively good price i.e. price didn't budge up.

Some people have been commenting (I don't use IG) that IG introducing new rules on liquidity might be causing some to sell?

O/T apologies to the board
Bwana that email address bounced.

don't be fooled by buys/sells indicators - I added £90k here today and many of my buys are showing as sells. Found the liquidity surprising clearly there is one (or more) sellers and/or the MMs have stocked up on shares from seller previously. I now have a decent stake here to licence - finance - production ideally. I like the product, love the mine economics, dislike the jurisdiction but no risk no reward right? GLA

jd I got unlucky. 1 week = 1p. Now below 8p I think.
I got unlucky buying £100k or shares at 3.5p one month before covid hit UK. 1 month later = 1.7p.

It's called luck. Horizonte had some bad luck too. Maybe they were close to a good deal and maybe Orion money could have paid for all the preworks if we hadn't lost a year. But we've lost a year we won't get back.

British_Mike my estimates were always pessimistic compared to others posting here but I hoped 30p might be commanded by Araguaia alone at 2bn shares. Now I don't know about the £2bn shares but say £500-600m seems not unreasonable assuming nickel price would put the NPV above this. But as I said, mine are pessimistic, for e.g. pickedpeck reckoned maybe 1.2x NPV at production.

That factors in nothing for A2 or V. Of course everyone believes something will happen with V in the next 31 months which will add value. My problem right this minute I just saw 280m NPV of V evaporate at 7.5p.

So the reality is extrapolating is hard. We'll have a better idea I think when the finance deal is done and dusted. I'm bullish on nickel 2023+ - always have been. I think EV takeup globally will be faster than most anticipate and there won't be a near term better alternative to nickel.

it's more honest than just saying 'I topped up'. Which is all I hear on twitter. From the bottomless pits of cash everyone has. Nobody ever sells, do they?

I sold (some) and gave a reason for selling. It is no more or less interesting than, say, JD saying he bought at 8p.

I say it how it is. I don't like mates rates. 7.5p is a bit cheap to give away $280m NPV.

keep buying and supporting the shareprice to 55p. I did that from 1.7p to 10p. Happy for others to do some heavy lifting. As I said - not selling any more till financing and I believe financing will happen and hopefully in the year Horizonte promised it most recently (2021).

JD don't know if your LOL was for me. Your forecast was:

" My sell price is about 55p q2 next year - although may take a little bit out if we get to 20p this side of Xmas."
From your post:
"RE: I think....27 Aug 2020 22:10"

Is 55p still your forecast to happen within the next 4 months? Or have you revised it?

I've taken ~1.7m shares off the table. For no other reason than I need multiple ways to achieve my 12-18 month goals and everything was tied up here. I had hoped for better than the initial raise and I can't take a chance with all of it on the terms of the finance deal. Shares I sold were bought 2-3.5p and it frees enough capital for what I consider equally good bets in the same timeframe. Others invested here already have these other bets running and many of course would advise against being all in on one stock. I have no regrets but I have taken the opportunity to consider options here. I won't sell any more until at least finance is done and dusted and probably until next year. I have remaining 24m shares inc family and intend to run 20m to production and beyond.

Had hoped for better on the first tranche of financing. It wasn't institutions that got us to 10p. It was the PIs invested here. I bought 10m shares since Orion invested and at times kept them from falling through the floor. Remember a couple of times distinctly halting a fairly free fall in the shareprice. Maybe 7.5p was all we could get here but it still feels like a kick in the nuts. We have to remember these entities like Orion, Teck etc. they aren't our friends. They want what we want - maximum bang for their buck. That Horizonte couldn't get Orion to part with more for these shares shows what a hard negotiation this really is. Hopefully the next round will be better, this strengthens our hand, and de-risks finance not happening (I'm sure it does). Maybe new entrants get a bargain at 8p and I hope they do. But we have to wait and see. I know the institutions joining now aren't taking much risk. How much risk is there being shown what they are shown, post covid, and with nickel $19.5k/t? I was invested when nickel was $11k/t.

I have no motive here. I don't want to influence people to buy, or to sell. I see huge prospects for Horizonte in the 3-5 year timeframe, as I always have and continue to do so. My confidence in the next few months and terms of the finance deal is a bit less concrete but on the plus side - not long to wait now. But if I hear another timeframe from JM I'd like him to deliver on it. You places your bets ladies and gentlemen.....

OT (apologies to the board) Bwana are you on twitter at all? Could chat re: ACP/HZM. I'm wasarunner1 on twitter.
Taken a decent position here now. Again, apols to board.

Just to qualify it it doesn't preclude a good final finance deal (and lets face it, that is the one that matters!) There may be some disappointment from people who thought the extended timescales were to negotiate a big joint deal leveraging Vermelho. That still isn't completely out of the question but more unlikely before Araguaia finance complete, I would say, based on the raise? If you were going to leverage Vermelho do it before you raise.

The big positive to me is my money is (nearly) safe as is everyone who got in below 7.5p. For those with a higher average of course should also be OK. I just don't see finance not getting done - providing they get on with it while the stock market is bullish and nickel is flying. But the proof will be in the pudding - in this case - the final package.

JD there are two sides to every argument.

The project is late. How much? 12-18-24 months take your pick. Not at all the companies fault of course but have some sympathy for those who were invested throughout and have been waiting patiently here for a result.

Secondly we gave away ~14p/sh of Vermelho NPV through the raise. It answered the question (at least for the time being) of 'will Vermelho be protected'. Many were touting project level financing. This wasn't project level financing.

I'm on the fence with it - of course, it is great news that the project is moving forwards, and (at least to me) all but de-risked on the financing not happening. But it will leave some lingering doubt as to the terms of the final finance deal. Personally, I've revised my numbers to be on the pessimistic side - 2.5bn shares. Vs 2bn shares that makes 50p=40p, 30p=24p, 20p=16p and so forth once the mcap settles.

Against this backdrop we have nickel flying (over $20k/t overnight) so begs the question if we have 3 Onca Pumas how much could we sell the lot for? $80bn in the ground value.

We have to remember the Board of Directors have ONLY 1 JOB. Maximise shareholder value. They have no other job. Therefore it is very valid at every turn to question this. I am not saying they are or they are not, just reminding us all of this fact. Maximising shareholder value here of course means making sure the mine is financed (it has little value without it). But we are allowed to question the means and ask them that question.

JM put some weight on I think on the video. Lockdown maybe hasn't done him any favours but then it hasn't most people. GLA

Sasha introduced me to Simon and I have no reason to doubt what he says. Whether the oversubscription is significant or not - guess we find out in time. Dont know what number of shares has to do with anything it doesnt make one right or wrong. I have a lot of shares but still bought higher than friday closing price a week ago because I didnt see it coming. Gla

Haha not me. I added a few. Wish my house sale had gone through today and not last friday though!