Member Info for wasarunner

anybody know if the webcast is online yet?

just my final comment on what I saw today. $325m debt plus cornerstone $100m is $425m. I think the slide had $461m including contingency and of course we already have $25m raised which the co earlier confirmed counted towards the total. So I think they will raise more, to fund (a big) FS for Vermelho, and that is where the public placing comes in because the numbers above + offtake already hit the Araguaia capex requirement.

It should be easy peasy to convince existing shareholders or insti's to raise for Vermelho FS and this is probably why JM has brought this to the fore in the presentation. Veremlho still has nominal contribution to sp/mcap so advancing it will clearly add much more value to the company than the raise to proceed to FS. I have no idea how much a HPAL FS will cost to do and do well, maybe $25m? Less? Just mustings. I wouldn't be surprised if the total capital raised including the raise earlier this year is closer to the $500m mark to set both projects up for full delivery including contingency.

pp - I think the FS for Vermelho will be completed over the timeframe that Araguaia gets built - i.e. 2 years. I suspect it will be a big study, probably HPAL. 'Fast track' in JM speak is 2 years to FS. We could clarify this with the co but this is what I understand. Then Vermelho will need to get built but it won't be us building it, as he has pointed out, more complex technical project and bigger capex requirement. But the value will be there at FS stage to have a shovel ready project delivering $7.5bn FCF - what price will a major pay to get onboard then?

So steady rise till 2023 then a nice rerate when JV or total co sale is announced?

All the ECA asre Scandi unless I'm mistaken. Does that tell us anything useful? ESG - the Scandi's really care about that stuff. Is that where the product is going? Or is it where they are ordering the equipment from. I have no expertise here.

Nothing in the webcast has convinced me of anything other than the huge value of this company is in the medium to long (which will seem long to some investors) timeframe:
- they can accelerate phase 2 build (obviously) by not relying on FCF and rolling over or refinancing because nickel price will be a lot higher in 2023/24 than it is today. So assume Phase 2 can start build in 2024.
- Vermelho shovel ready backend of 2023 but who will build it? It won't be Horizonte so a partner? That will come online assume +1/2 years

I agree see easy 30p by Araguaia production and a lot more value beyond that but this investment will take years to reach 'full value' and even then the proper deficit kicks in after 2025 so soaring nickel prices after that point will put the profit stratospheric.

I am still going for an earlier sale, perhaps at end of 23/early 24 or at least the JV deal to be done on vermelho around then for the build.

It was telling that an Anglo would just build both lines from the off. They aren't stupid the majors. If they want to maximise returns they should buy early (cheaper that way) and build big (they get more output quicker). All IMHO.

I still put Horizonte firmly in the 'don't sell this share for 4 years and you will be very happy' draw in my portfolio. But we should of course see sp appreciation along the journey, hopefully starting end of H1! GLA

yes doesn't sound like a miner.

Also - horizonte to develop Vermelho to feasibility to exactly overlap with getting Araguaia to production 'because if we were to transact on Vermelho it would be at significant discount to its value'. Therefore the transaction will most likely happen in 2 years, whether for Vermelho or the whole company, take your pick!

The real value is in minimum 2 years time IMO. Whether we are independent much longer than that we will see...

...on my investments in what I anticipate to be a transformational quarter. Lets just say April came and went and was a bit 'meh'. To be honest I didn't expect anything to happen on Horizonte and it hasn't (yet), but no doubt plenty going on behind the scenes. The RNS yesterday hints at what I've started to believe - that Horizonte will finance Vermelho DFS themselves, perhaps the partner is in the wings or not, it doesn't matter, but it will get progressed this year.

May will be an interesting months maybe we will have a hint of progress but I still don't expect finance to land till June at the earliest. If they were closer than that there wouldn't have been a need for the $25m early doors to progress the long lead items, for the sake of a month or two. I expect progress in May on both of my other significant investments which I won't ramp here :)

GLA and may May bring wealth and fortune to us all. I checked my spreadsheet and 1st April closing Horizonte was 7.1p so 8p is progress in a month in any case!

Yes sometimes with fast developing companies reporting numbers in arrears there can be a lag until you see the good progress feed through to the financials but the writing is on the wall here the company have been quite actively communicating the progress. Not sure where they are with the app but that can be a gamechanger too as it rolls out. I took a similar position to Simon and would like to add funds allowing.

I don't think any new II reached 3% in the recent placing or they would have had to declare. Recent placing with Canadian shares included puts us at 1.7bn shares so 3% would be 51m shares. That's quite a lot and probably not one II got it in the last round. What's interesting me is the significant holders list post raise for mine finance! Should be a few more IIs on the books.

actually I tell a lie the not in public hands is defined as below:

"not in public hands AIM securities held, directly or indirectly (including via a
related financial product) by:
(a) a related party;
(b) the trustees of any employee share scheme or
pension fund established for the benefit of any
directors/employees of the applicant/AIM
company (or its subsidiaries);
(c) any person who under any agreement has a
right to nominate a person to the board of
directors of the applicant/AIM company;
(d) any person who is the subject of a lock-in
agreement pursuant to rule 7 or otherwise; or
(e) the AIM company as treasury shares"

Cannacord must be a related party as the related party definition/threshold I believe is 5% ownership.

Slurms - it has, but the percentage has varied. I believe it relates to parties who control >10% or are in controlling position of the company itself (for example the BOD). So at the moment it looks like Teck qualifies, maybe Cannacord doesn't (any more as they dipped under 10%) so the difference between the Teck holding and the 'not in public hands' number must reflect shares held by BOD and perhaps others. At one point this number was well above 20% when both Teck and Cannacord qualified.

When Cannacord took part in the recent placing they were classified as 'related party' as at the time they controlled enough shares to be considered such so it was given a special mention in the RNS in Feb.

I think it tells us Horizonte will take it to DFS stage (at least). I expect them to raise some financing to progress Vermelho as part of this next round - that bit is thinly disguised in the first line Bwana quoted. Whether the market then attributes value - we will see! I did expect something on Vermelho this year, I think Horizonte are likely to do the first stage themselves. The first clue was appointing the engineering chappie to oversee both projects. GLA

jurisdiction is sooooooo imporant. I didn't really get that the first ever miner I invested in then when they didn't get the licence they (and by extension I) were screwed and I took a 6 fig loss. It is ironic that so called progressive countries (western democracies) don't like mining (mine was in Spain!) but yet they consume the end products made from said materials in vast quantities. Not in my backyard etc. No such worries here IMO, Tanzania is pretty favourable jurisdiction if the map of mining licences is anything to go by.....

the partner news will be a re-rate event when it happens (whether it is this year, 2022 or 2023). I would expect it at least by 2023 but it could be sooner. I expect it to be quite a big re-rate event actually and so best to keep plenty positioned in HZM for that event which can land at any time. That and the fact that as we go through the Araguaia build we should start tracking closer to nickel performance (and nickel is expected to start performing well over that period) means it will be risky to be on the sidelines during Araguaia construction. There will be ups and downs of course, it is a big project and a big build but the nickel narrative is only getting stronger.

Apologies if this is a noob question but does Mode allow transfer of bitcoin in, and/or out, to a non Mode recipient (e.g. to an exchange like Coinbase?) I've read it allows Mode <-> Mode transfer between recipients but not whether it can be transferred off Mode. Thank you.

dizzy heights but alas still 0.2p lower than I bought 2 weeks ago! Never mind. Until news I think we drift up and down with bored PI sentiment 'will I miss the rise or is there something I can buy with my money today' and the occasional 'it looks like nickel is rising again though that should be relatively irrelevant for the next 2 years until we are mining it'.

Roll on news I say :) Can only be 2 months and 3 trading days unless Anna Legge was pulling our leg (pun unintended)

Xenor that's fair and each to their own strategy- that is certainly conventional wisdom and there is no doubt that it insulates from downside. I prefer to be invested in at most 5 or 6 stocks so 20% typically isn't my maximum at all - but to be fair I have a lot less than 20% in Argo (something like 5% or less at the moment). I don't know how I'd feel about having 20% in such a volatile stock - I suppose if I were chasing a big upside I could live with it. I do believe in argo fundamentals though I think it will do well but for the time being that's based on btc doing its thing as planned. I think PW is smarter than that though and is building a great company here which will not (in the future) be based on the fortunes or not of btc. And that is worth investing in and is perhaps worth ignoring the btc noise for. Of course that's easier for everyone once they're above b/e. GLA

Xenor that suggests you are concerned that your PF is 4% down. It would concern me to invest in stocks at all if 4% down was worrying! They can go down as well as up (so I'm told, most of mine are up at the moment - ok argo aside!)

Just on the ml - this is true, I have had another cfo of another miner explain this to me - no ml =no value. However I am confident too we will seeml land here.

The interesting thing to me is the ml here unlocks a fully diluted npv of >10x todays mcap. So essentially it is a bet to gain 10x value. Because I think there is far more than 10% chance we get the licence (in fact surely more like 90%+ and soon) I am more than happy to take the bet.

The financing then should be a walk in the park - the grades, test work, and irr confirm it.

There isnt much liquidity - I tried a dummy sell (not that I am selling) this morning and couldnt get a quote. Happy to hold here and hopefully the next few pieces of the jigsaw come together soon. Gla

Well, if they dilly dally, I'm phoning Simon and saying a consortium of PIs, who all recently invested in RMM, are ready to take up the slack and fund the equity portion. Can't say fairer than that. Name your equity price DJ :)

I'm not worried about the equity being hard to raise. What price? I've decided doesn't matter - it won't be below 7.5p. But if it unlocks +$2bn NPV it won't matter. GLA