Member Info for wasarunner

I could only afford that if it dropped to 5p which none of us want!

almost tempting just to level with Craig and JM both on ~28m shares odd I think :)

I have ~£500k invested elsewhere at the moment. Goes any lower it will be mighty tempting to see what I could do to the sp. Problem is I can't easily do it for many reasons, not least liquidity in what else I'm invested in but ~7m shares to buy, would it make a difference? I'd be back above what I ever owned. Goes down into the 6s I'll have a serious think. Problem is if it doesn't suit the bigger players they'll just wait to do the deal. That's the problem you can always exhaust the smaller players, if that's your game. Big tends to win, in most walks in life alas!

I think BOD should have tried to do a smaller raise at premium. When they did the raise I think IIRC we were above 9p. Say see if we can get any away at 10p to new insti's. It would have underpinned the price and if the intention was to show the cornerstone they weren't the only show in town, that would have been nice. Now, we're at and below the last placing price which was done at discount. Participants might rightly be concerned that the cornerstone price or next placing price will be done at discount to the now discounted price.

All lovely in hindsight but the raise definitely killed momentum and some seller or something killed the recovery when we went back over 8p. It'll be interesting - if they already have a price agreed with the cornerstone all of this is moot of course. but they shouldn't be doing a dicount off 7p - 7p was the £100mcap mark until the recent dilution. GLA

I think it is worth being aware that it does happen (particularly but not exclusively on AIM). PIs get in, BODs do deals that don't really favour the PI. Not necessarily a deliberate shafting, maybe sometimes, but just because it doesn't matter sufficiently to them.

Here the situation is, I think if JM could do a non diluting deal, he could. But simply not possible for $500m capex when the companies mcap only a year or two ago was £50m. So he's trying to get the best deal he can - for existing shareholders, and obviously with half an eye on his options. If he wasn't fussed about the best deal probably could have done the deal sooner but it would have been punative to existing shareholders. I'm sure at bargain rates Orion would have parted with a lot of cash very quickly but they would have been essentially buying the company out.

I don't think we'll get shafted but it might take a medium-long (by PI timelines) timeframe to see proper return on an investment at this price. By proper of course I mean multiples - we should see an initial 1.5x on finance at least. But for people looking for crypto or covid gains here, it might be possible, but it is years down the line I feel. Araguaia will be producing in 2024 so unless people are buying for the 1.5x after finance, or for the 'what happens next with Vermelho' news, that's probably the timeframe to be thinking about investing here. All IMHO. That said still feel 7p is very good value and be very surprised if finance is done any lower. So buying tomorrow one would be buying at the placing price, or lower.

I think if people are prepared to wait long enough there will be cream aplenty, the question will be one of patience. Say Orion is the cornerstone, say the cornerstone price is 7p (I really hope that is worst case btw). Orion are looking for 4-5x their money and they can probably get that back on Araguaia alone - 30p-35p in due course, hopefully more with A2. For many here who invested around 3p that's 10bags on Araguaia alone, with Vermelho to come. I suppose the question is, are people prepared to wait the number of years. I don't know how many it will take. I've been invested 3 and for the time being very happy with around 2.5x return for 3 years wait (so far). If it can double a couple more times in the next 2-3 years that'll do very nicely thank you very much. But I hope people more optimistic than me are right, and we see bigger multiples post finance than I am expecting. GLA

Classic chicken and egg though. Finance brings the rerate but to do the equity for finance you want the high sp. One for mb to sort :-)

mainly I speculate because I can't fathom how the SP can be at the year low (effectively) with 5/6th of the time the BOD allowed themselves to get finance in place has elapsed. And when something smells fishy, it usually is. Especially with nickel over $18k. All IMHO.

So I'm not saying its them, but I do find the following titbit interesting. 19th April RNS Cannacord dropped below 10% holding (to 9.936% to be precise) due to the dilution effect of the raise. Thereafter, conveniently perhaps, they don't have to declare further drops until who knows when.

Now I am merely stating the coincidental factor and in no way implying any causality either way, but at around that time the SP was 8.3p. Since then some (not me) have surmised 'we may have had a seller' be it bored PI or otherwise. But 6 or so weeks on we find ourselves at 7p.

Now who would benefit from a low(ish) average price going into the mine build fund raise, I ask myself. Clearly parties who can expect to participate (in size) in such a fund raise. And there's the rub - on low volumes it is easy to drop a share like Horizonte nice and gently. Not enough PIs with deep enough pockets to stop the rot and also, it erodes short term sentiment watching the price fall every time it rises.

But as I said above, this is all just idle speculation, mainly just aligning timelines and events. Lets see what plays. As I said in an earlier post it's harder now we have a bigger mcap to make much difference for a PI we are 'at the mercy of larger forces'. Some of us benefited from these forces earlier in the lifecycle - RG selling, City Financial selling etc. But being fully loaded up and watching them at play can be painful. GLA

The shares haven't been issued/admitted yet AFAIK. Not to say someone who already owns some can't sell what they owned.

I think (sadly) the SP is stuck in this range until we get 'unblocking' news which really signals next stage. We thought it was ESIA but obviously that doesn't seem to be enough so it must be the ML. I expect pretty good newsflow after the ML personally so that's the ticket and lets see when it lands. I assume MB must have a sense it is coming to raise the cash now to progress with everything else, so lets hope he's right! I was thinking more April/May but if it's June or July so be it....as long as it lands in due course!

Is this the month it lands? 22 trading days to end of H1 (not that I'm counting really or anything). GLA

Yes my guesstimate for 20-25p is really just for start of production, I appreciate there are multiple upsides yet:
- expansion to cover the further resource
- better than average basket for the product as has been mentioned on posts here
I always like to estimate on the pessimistic side and then the upside is all upside. I guess we have multiple steps with this company - in the next few months/rest of this year progress on the offtakes and financing, then 9months-1 year later first prodction, then expansion. Broadly it would be nice to see around 10p uplift to the SP in each year - it feels doable. So maybe 35p after 1 year of production (if not sooner) plus some debt will have been paid back.

What do people think we might end up with here with the mine financed? If they could do equity at 10p for the equity portion of mine finance 100m shares would be £10m / $14m. Is that enough? They might not get 10p so I guess maybe more like 150m shares for the equity part.

We're bang on as near as makes no difference 500m shares right now. I have unfortunately no idea on historical warrants still outstanding but yesterday there were 18.8m issued.

So maybe worst case 700m shares in total after everything is added up. Trading at $200m mcap would be around half NPV, that would be 20p I think - £140m GBP. We should be able to do better at production, perhaps less well on finance. My shares in issue might be worst case I don't know.

So I'll stick my neck out and go 25p at production. Maybe half post finance? I'm certainly very happy with the 10-15p post finance, and targetting the 20-25p+ range for production because the build is not that long. What's a year to double your money etc.

If anyone thinks my calc is way out please let me know. I've seen these kinds of numbers mentioned before. When we spoke to Matt Bull I think for graphite we can't get prepaid offtake so offtake can't feature in the capex it will be debt+equity.

I don't know how much of the new cash will still be around for building a mine but I'm assuming it will be spent on all the prep work so we need to find the capex totals. Of course there is also contingency which we might later recover. GLA - exciting times and hopefully the timing of this latest funding signals that progress is about to kick off on next stage.

I'm also hoping for a mine development type director appointment. Hopefully they have been looking for some such big hitter as you want them in pole position to start building a mine with finance complete. You'd want them onboard sooner, than later to get up to speed with the project.

who knows where we will get to but presently enormous discount to NPV. I suspect we need finance in place to understand the capital structure for a really good % of NPV. But of course should see a decent rise on the ML itself. I am hoping once the ML lands these binding offtakes mentioned in the first RNS can come soon after. Then we're cooking on the finance deal. Have a good weekend everybody.

I'm hoping it signals confidence the ML is soon, and enables rapid progress beyond that with a strengthened cash position. I don't think the company needed immediate working capital (happy to stand corrected) so it looks like strategic finance to me to enable the next stages post licence.

rns' are like buses. You wait a week and two turn up! I'm hoping for one more along the lines of something like 'and we also found gold on the site'. That would be a nice lead in to 3 days of fine weather and holiday. GLA

nm

what's a bit fishy is, why would there be selling this close to anticipated news. Yes, there is sp weakness elsewhere so a bored PI might decide to make a switch. But all other factors (nickel price etc.) point to this deal getting done. I anticipated the price rising, not falling, this close to financing. My guesstimate was 8-9p to allow a discount at the previous raise price (7.5p).

Part of the problem with the higher market cap now its higher for PIs to swim against the tide and soak up any ogranised selling. Back in the day if you went in for £100k you really could get the price up. Not so sure today. Plus I don't know anybody who is invested already who has a spare £100k to chuck in which is a shame.

hmmm ;) good news coming here in due course methinks