Member Info for wasarunner

Can I check please my understanding of the block listing review.
Multiplying remaining by warrant price I think we have (circa) £750k / £750k outstanding on the two schemes around £1.5m in total. Does anyone know when they all expire? I am wondering what kind of dent these would make in our interim working capital requirement until the main financing deal is sealed.
The latest ones at 7p I know don't expire for 3 years and of course unlikely anyone will be cashing them soon, probably wait for financing complete or production as you wouldn't cash them until well in the money.

Bwana indeed but I think in the last announcement the 3 ECA's mentioned are all Skandi. I just can't find the reference to it - I think JM had them on a slide in his last presentation but can't find the names. So my reading of it is those countries are providing the loan guarantees and perhaps the supply of the furnace is coming from there as a result - the most expensive mine component which has been sourced form Europe?

If anyone can locate the ECA's would be really appreciated. I vaguely recall Sweden/Finland but could be wrong.

15 weeks till end of Q3 folks, you heard it here first. Buy why you can :)
I see it as an opportunity if it stays this low selfishly I prefer September for finance (but that's being selfish) because big money should land Sept 1st for me. I wouldn't hesitate to top up because like others I don't think the equity price is going to be done at this level due to the amount involved and the long term fundamentals. The market placing may be higher also if the cornerstone deal is announced first I would expect the open market buyers to be buying a higher price. 6.5p is a steal IMHO.

We are very close to a fully derisked project (execution risk and jurisdiction risk always remains). I have no doubts about nickel fundamentals so that isn't a big risk as far as I am concerned.

I remember when we were talkikng about offtakes after DFS and one knowledgeable poster posted 'we must not do any offtake under the base case' which for the DFS was $14k/t. I have no concerns that offtake will be tied in sub $14k/t. So I think all good here. We also have to remember ECA is generally long tenure and low interest rate (Simon Retters words to me) so the more they can get, the better the overall package as it frees up cash flow in future years to fund for e.g. A2 instead of paying back short term debt.

I'll be buying here if money lands pre finance deal complete.

And another million share sell, 16th June we were Kabungered again. Just how many can he have left! Fingers crossed for ML and Kabunga gets bored or just runs out of shares to sell....

of course 'better than average' returns is what all investors, including for example the likes of Orion Mine Finance want. Therefore I take it as a huge signal when they invest (and I'm sure they will be participating in the main funding round) that they see better than average returns investing in Horizonte. Follow the money as they say.

Mr Fibbles my calc is on the expectation of 3bn shares including options (we are at around 1.8bn including options pre mine finance dilution) so as such no dilution to the 66.6p assuming A2 is operational and nickel is $25k/t and we are valued at 100% of NPV. Shareholders would see 66.6p shareprice.

Of course, the NPV calc will change over time with costs et al but it illustrates the potential we have here. I think independently each of Araguaia and Vermelho could end up being worth say 50p+ to shareholders, perhaps Vermelho can achieve that even with a JV as it is a bigger NPV project (plus a major can probably build a bigger mine).

I'm aware it potentially returns much bigger than a tracker of course that's why we focus our investments (in my case I currently only hold 4 stocks). I think on 5 year view Horizonte is probably the best of them, and partly to do with the vast resource at production if we sell the co I think we get very good money - mine life comes into play then. 2xtier1 resources no less! Anyway after COB today only 10 trading days of H1 and by all accounts the company will update us in that time, yet here we are, mr seller must exit at any cost. GLA

>>I think financing will not be less than £100m mkt cap share price
I hope a decent bit more! £100m I work out from the last holding RNS from Teck to be 5.899p now post last raise. Hoping for north of 7.5p.

chunky looking sells after 8am this morning? Someone selling into the liquidity?

No substitute for talking to, or even better, sitting down with a director and asking them the question before you invest. I doubled down after I met SR because I asked him straight questions he gave me straight answers and I believed him. Unfortunately in 2020, Covid was a thing, otherwise I'm pretty sure we would have had finance nailed in 2020. But no substitute to talking to the mgt if you have any doubts.

And what a team it is:
https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/board-of-directors/

We have ex "Group Head of Exploration and Geology" from Anglo American, an NED from Teck, and Mr Fisher who sold his last business for USD 1.2bn. I think they know what they're doing here even if they aren't buying shares right now on open market...

contrarian - I sold my house and put it into Horizonte. Currently living in a caravan. I will be buying a mansion with the eventual proceeds so pretty much along the lines you are suggesting.

Directors bought last at 1.81,1.82 and 3.13p. They're already in the money with more to come.
https://www.lse.co.uk/DirectorsDeals.asp?shareprice=HZM&share=Horizonte-Min

Yes they could have bought more but it isn't really the point - these are top professionals and the register contains two top 10 international miners. And if you don't like investing in companies where directors don't hold higher numbers well maybe it's not for you this one. I'm happy with the risk. I held a miner where the director owns close to 20%. Didn't stop him continually awarding himself more shares in lieu of other payment when the sp was on its arse. So I sold it. GLA

as to whether miners are valued at 100% of valuations, I have it on reasonable authority that during commodity supercycles they can be, and above. FOMO applies as much to miners as anything else and I think here Horizonte, if independent, will be uniquely positioned because there are very few (if any?) pureplay nickel miners around. If funds want nickel exposure they will need to be invested because investing in a co which mines a basket of industrial metals they will have exposure to other mining operations they don't necessarily want. I think Horizonte being a pureplay nickel (with a bit of cobalt) will add to the investment case if the supercycle happens as expected. There are rare times you don't want to be diversified and it's when your commodity is the really hot thing.....

I took the NPV calculator for a spin this morning at current nickel price $17.5k just to make sure my investment yesterday is sound. I always work on the 'Stage 2' tab because firmly believe Horizonte will not be raising more equity once initial funding is in, to build stage 2.

NPV nickel @£17.5k/t = $1.395bn = conveniently £1bn GBP ignoring rounding
3bn shares in issue post finance = 33.3p/sh at 100% NPV

So it is a good investment at todays nickel price.

But because I believe nickel will be $25k/t+ by the time Araguaia is producing (certainly from Stage 2) if you rerun the calculator NPV almost exactly doubles at $25k/t to USD $2.796bn

So that's 66.6p/sh at 100% of NPV, for Araguaia.

Then there's Vermelho.
Yep, good investment yesterday at 6.72p. GLA

There's a chance we are benefiting from someone who has to leave under duress here - a bit like city financial, etc. Clearly someone wants out and literally can't wait another couple of weeks. I'm happy to take their shares off them because I think they will be worth a lot more in future. Obviously being heavily invested we'd all rather not be 'benefitting' from a low sp but rather a high one but you have to play the cards you are dealt in this game so if they're going cheap, it would seem like buying is the best option. GLA

yeah there is a seller at 6.7p. More for others at this price if they want. I think we're as close to the low as I care about. I'm expecting an update from co in next couple of weeks on progress whether in the bag, or not. I've never been able to time purchases perfectly but I've been buying recently at 8.3p and 8.0p so 6.72p is a bargain even in relative terms!

140k chunks so I could recognise them! Haven't looked at the trade listings I only have 15 min delayed. Plus a couple of smaller trades with remainder of pots etc.

I bought because:
a. I'm rubbish at not meddling. As I've stated elsewhere
b. I had independently come to the conclusion over the last few days that the current price is mainly b****x
c. I had some shares albeit at a loss that I considered short term play now gainfully repatriated into my investment pot
My other investment shares are intact, I don't intend to sell them really irrespective of Horizonte's fortunes. I see only upside from 6.7p. I think it cost me around £70k. My conservative target is this doubles from here once the news sinks in, institutions are brought onboard in the next 6 months or so and the price settles post euphoria of the deal. Then a longer upwards trajectory to production. GLA

every little helps. I think they're cheap at current price, too cheap. Has it made a difference to L2?

I got this from Sasha on twitter he posted to our group. He has spoken to the company on Friday and again yesterday. I have had a conversation with him also and believe things are going to plan. Understandably, there is no confirmation right now that it will be by end of this month:

"I contacted HZM first thing on Friday morning and had a long chat with Simon Retter at about 10:35 relaying a lot of the chatter, speculation and etc.

Simon could not bring Jeremy into the conversation due to his schedule but he did update him and they sent a further invite over the weekend for us to speak again this morning, and that’s what we did with my raising many of the points from the market. They are extremely busy at the moment but they will be responding to the various queries they have received.

They are right in the crux of the debt piece at the moment, they are aware of concerns and will take suggestions on board. With 5 major banks and some minor ones it is a complex piece but what they say is that there are no red flags for Horizonte as far as financing is concerned and that they are making good progress with the PF lenders with a lot of activity moving the process along. It is the debt side which is their major focus and referring to documentation around offtake and cornerstone investor both of those are in process of being finalised as well.

I very much got the impression that they are pushing as hard as they can and moving it along they are (certainly not now anyway) (not-sic) ambivalent to market desire for updates."

Saw a tweet that really resonates with me courtesy of Ian Cassell on the weekend I'll 'retweet it here' because definitely something to be taken from it in current context:

"Successful investing is hard work because it means disciplining your mind to do the opposite of human nature. Buying during a panic, selling during euphoria, and holding on when you are bored and crave action."

So with Horizonte now we have neither panic nor euphoria but it is very tempting to just 'do something' when almost certainly the right thing to do is 'do nothing'. I considered topping up simply because I find the shareprice too cheap but to do so I would have to sell down other potentially great companies so the temptation to meddle is too great. Actually trusting that the BOD is on the case here, we will get financed, and this will be a multi billion dollar company in the future and all you need to do is nothing is actually surprisingly hard. Well it is for me anyway. Still, the days tick on, we get closer to financing, I'm sure of it. Whether it's next 2 weeks or next 6 weeks who cares, they will get the best deal they can in the timeframes they can I'm sure of it.

I think if enough of us say it it will happen. What is the film where he says if you build it they will come. If we want 7.5p it will come. etc.....