Member Info for wasarunner

>>Certainly not a bad time to be getting onboard here
I bought my first ACP share around a year ago at 3.98p. I thought it was good value then. So assuming we are now a year closer to the 'action' and the ESIA has been granted and we have had a couple of updates on the quality of the product and an upwards revision of the NPVs etc I would argue all of that together, plus the 'opportunity cost' of not being invested over that year for the new investor, makes it quite a good investment at 10% premium to what I first paid a year ago!

Since then of course bought at all sorts of other figures I don't know what my average is but it will be a lot less than it will be at production. Fingers crossed the ML lands in the week or weeks. GLA

It's actually hard to look beyond the fact that $11k/t of profit at todays nickel price but the nickel deficit hasn't even started yet. Then you read that the likes of Glencore (who know their onions) think nickel demand is set to treble and you go - kerrrrrching. Best not to overthink why Horizonte is cheap and just buy, IMHO.

I think the key word is in this bit 'are expected to trade at ' and the word is 'expected'. So, if you believe A-D to be true, but the market values the company at 1/7th of what the market is expected to value it at, there is a 7:1 disconnect I am very happy to participate in.

Just for another contrarian thought if Horizonte was 35p a share now, would people be buying? Would they be looking at the NPV and going still upside from these numbers? I bet they would - just like people buy companies much higher in relative valuations. Sometimes significantly underpriced companies are not attractive to investors because they don't have confidence in themselves to invest - i.e. - maybe there is something in A-D doesn't stack up but I'm not seeing it. I think in the case of Horizonte - they're wrong - no red flags for me (or the company it turns out, on it's path to financing).

It's a very good stat - the challenge I see is that Horizonte's NPV ($2.9bn on the slide hence we are trading at 6% of NAV or whatever) is of course huge, but the capex relative to size of company is quite large and the company is not proven to be able to deliver a finance package or mine (as yet). Hence the huge discount. One hopes that once we have delivered the finance package, which by implication means the financiers are happy that Horizonte can and will deliver the mine, we should re-rate.

I don't know how that factors for Verlmelho. When I spoke to Simon Retter he said the market should value Vermelho differently (i.e. higher % of NPV) when Araguaia is financed. I guess the logic is - once the market has financed one mine, you have the credibility that you can get the other to the same stage, hence some of the risk has been removed. It would be really nice to see a bit of value in the mcap from Vermelho at some point. I'm pretty sure there is very little in there. About a third of our mcap is cash at the moment (unless they've spent much of the $25m).

I tihnk the size and complexity of the projects (and Vermelho is a large, and complex project) must affect the valuation metric somewhat. With a large and complex project there is less certainty that it is in the bag so I would maybe expect Vermelho to be valued slightly lower as % of NPV at the same stage as Araguaia. Araguaia one hopes is bread and butter with so many RKEF plants around the world. GLA

Ditto that Fabiano looks like an explorer on the photo and not a producer.
People must be selling because nickel only went up $200/t today adding $2.9m to our annual income from stage 1 of Araguaia alone....

>>9.2 million tonnes
That's insane. That's nearly 2.5x our proven reserves PER ANNUM and we have not 1 but 2 Tier 1 mines. Where is it all going to come from?! You need 150 Vermelho's over a 30 year period to supply it.

If offtake is soon to follow ML and a precursor to financing though surely the commodity price is highly relevant? Yes we won't be producing it for 18 months or whatever but my understanding is it does actually matter to secure offtake (and establish a price that lenders will lend against).

My hope is newsflow is currently stalled on two counts:
- ML first, then newsflow
- Kabungas position. Is he fully out yet? If he isn't out they might not want to run the news for him to sell into. In any case you want the ML first anyway.

With a bit of luck ML lands, and Kabunga is 'sufficiently out' (even though from the last warrants RNS presumably still has warrants left?) that he can't completely tank any share price appreciation on licence. You just don't want him to pull the price back down ahead of the equity component of the financing and MB will be well aware of this IMO. It is always tricky where you have a significant entity selling down.

Anyway hopefully not long to find out on both fronts. If Kabunga wants out and the licence is close I would hope the company could look to place his shares. I have a sufficient holding here (now >1% of co) that I'd really like good news to be followed by rerate thank you very much :)

Best get Vermelho prepped and ready for mid decade!

Seriously guys, this is like a tennis match where the ball has just been hit from the far side and it is going to take 3-5 years to get to us over the net. We (or rather Horizonte) have that amount of time to position the racket to hit the sweet spot for the winner. In our case that's to make Vermelho to produce 'whatever it is' that the battery market will demand in full swing - intermediate matte, or nickel/cobalt mix, or whatever. You have to figure out what it is then build it. I still think we've got 2-4 years to get it right but I do sense there will be urgency once Araguaia funding is done and dusted to progress Vermelho. 12-18mths DFS then rapid finance/JV then build. It could be producing a year or two behind A1.

18 Jun 2021 6.50 6.70 6.40 6.65
Open/High/Low/Close

You'd say on the balance of probs at deal price 6.6916 given the stats for the day above, that's a buy almost irrespective of timestamp.

I just felt we're below fair value when I added my 1m, then we had the delay RNS, I think this is the turn. Some entity or other is taking a position, if it's a PI then they have a lot of spare cash to enter in that size....

I'm also not seeing hybrid cars pushed. I think the manufacturers realise there is limited shelf life to the hybrid and pushing on straight to full EV? I don't follow the industry closely but if as a layperson that's what I'm seeing, then plenty considering the switch will be looking at the same options when talking to their dealers? Huge transformation coming in next few years that's for sure...

Interesting watching the Euros every second advert is for (electric) cars. So it becomes obvious why everything will switch - if you are big auto you really aren't spending your R&D right now on the next version of your petrol/diesel cars, you're probably catching up to stay in the game at all by developing your EV capability. And once all the innovation is in EV and Jo Public must buy new car and the only new models are electric and the Jones' already have one etc...

I think we're on the cusp, just really need to understand how infrastructure can keep up. One analyst I read suggests because EV charging is just so much simpler (than burying huge tanks of highly flammable fuel in the ground) it's a much easier problem to solve and eventually you'll just charge your cars when you go grocery shopping etc. If I was a supermarket chain right now I'd be figuring out how to capture market share in this? GLA

Yes of course it was tongue in cheek. But the point is even 60kt/annum (the initial production) with a mixture of flake sizes is likely to fetch very good money. FWIW I suspect the DFS numbers are on the conservative side on sale price and of course - because the baskets etc. are negotiated it is very difficult to come up with a figure rather than my other investments where an ounce of gold is priced at an ounce of gold. From the podcast Matt Bull also confirmed the graphite market has hotted up in the last year so prices are likely to be above DFS numbers anyway, reading between the lines. Just hope we get ML soon and those offtakes nailed.

But always good to do the topend calc if for nothing more than giggles I love to see 100:1 disparities on gross earnings to mcap you know you are invested in something with quite a lot of upside!

https://twitter.com/ZaimCreditSyst/status/1406901582373982208

I like the comment "I would say now Zaim is a money machine which is growing..." by CEO Siro Ciccone...

https://www.ft.com/content/053ae1cc-993d-45e1-8f80-e1a758a7a38e

Not sure on the chemistry here but every little helps. I can't help but notice one of our ECAs is from Sweden and Northvolt is Swedish and Volvo is (or was?) Swedish. Hopefully they need clean energy nickel to go with their clean energy gigafactory.

blimey. 120kt/annum of the battery grade would fetch up to $2.4bn(/annum). What's our mcap again? Oh yeah £25m....

Thank you. So another ~£750k in kitty in next 8 mths.

I think optimism comes from the fact that it costs $7k/t to produce the nickel which today sells for $17.5k/t and in the future can easily sell for $27.5k/t and all parties around the table at Horizonte know it. We now know there are many parties interested, 'no red flags' reported, and they have suitors for all the components (debt, equity, offtake). I'm optimistic that $80bn+ value will be unlocked here. The timescales were never certain and to be fair the company targeted a timeframe but never fully guaranteed it as they can't. I think if you are in the 5 year+ investment camp as many on here are, delay is just noise always supposing the deal gets done. I think the deal gets done and we're all wealthier after it. As others have said 5p also isn't scary, for a lot here they will still be 100% up at 5p. I see the sp rising from here not falling. Hasn't done too badly today considering. Caution is always worthwhile but I would be interested if the people urging caution are actually invested. If not then it is always generous to be concerned about the welfare of others investments of course.

Incidentally the future of this company was of course always almost entirely dependant on the successful closing of this deal. At each turn in the last 1 year through the various announcements it has become more certain that this will complete - first announcement from the cornerstone, the naming of the banks, the advanced discussions with 3 offtakers etc.etc. You have to be optimistic to make money and so the bet here is 'finance gets done'. The upside I estimate at minimum 5-10x on 5 year view, the downside, well, probably your investment in the worst case. GLA

I'm going to see if Finverra will lend me some ECA to buy Horizonte shares with. They'd be kind of insuring their own insurance.

That's brilliant. They have an 'apply for financing' button on their page. Maybe Simon clicked it...