Member Info for wasarunner

fair point but I think at least part of the reason for the mini raise when the price was higher was to set the bar. Can't see raise under 7p (not to say the market price in the interim might not go a bit lower). Maybe the cornerstone already agreed a vague number.

If the cornerstone takes the majority of the remaining equity then of course, it is that price that matters most, not what the wider market gets for the smaller offering.

I don't personally see why anyone would wait to participate in the public raise. You're not going to get better than 7p. You might be limited by oversubscription or be offered something token like 1 in 20. So they only point of waiting is the binary 'will it get financed won't it get financed' de-risk. I think it will get financed, be very surprised if any equity is raised under 7p, so if I had cash right now this is as good an entry point as you are likely to get.

Last trading day of May then 22 trading days left in H1 after today. As SJ said, let's be having you HZM.....

1. Finding the opportunity.
2. Having the patience.
So I think we have a winner here but when I first invested I didnt really see the full upside and I also didnt understand the timescales. Now convinced it would be a real mistake to sell before 2025 unless that decision is taken for us by the BOD. This whole process that I have waited for 3 years already to kick off in earnest this year with reward down the line. I dont know what nickel price will be in 2025-26 but $25-30k is certainly not out of the question.

So really just leaves the question - who can (afford to) leave their investment alone that long? Only the pattient of course. Hoping to be one of them, it doesnt come naturally to me. Gla.

Only one letter difference between pi and ii. Agree it could slip into h2 only positive for me in tbat would be the opportunity to buy a bit more. I was on the verge on selling some arb shares to add maybe 0.5-1m horizonte when both tanked. If the former recovers and horizonte hasnt risen significantly or finance slips a month or so I would makte that switch. Still holding 20m+ and will now not go below that number as finance could as you point out land any day.

pp not necessarily. Don't forget Cannacord sold 15m shares last year, then participated in the raise this year. Might be a similar manouver ahead of financing? Someone wants the raise price not too high then that's the way to do it....

swest true - and that's why the current SP is what it is. Based on everything else we know, it should be a lot higher.

I am convinced from my conversations with SR that there will be one and only one raise here. Vermelho is different but at that point the company will be a very different beast. SR told me they had to raise enough money to absolutely guarantee they can deliver Araguaia. Also, to some extent, that the 7.5p raise will draw a line in the sand.

That means, in my risk analysis, there is only one point of risk (with regards to what you identify here) and that is in the main upcoming raise. That means by H2 this year we will have a result - good, bad, mediocre. But I don't see them raising for Araguaia again so for at least Araguaia once this raise is complete you can do your picked-analysis for what the outcome is going to look like in 2025/26 on the forecast nickel price.

The key to not getting shafted is to have a decent BOD. I think we have one. I'm impressed by my convesations with them. Yes, they will have to give something away - we know that, and I have made peace with it. But they will get a result for us - I think Craig's instinct here is correct. I think the worst price equity will be raised is around the recent raise price and they can get enough that we see an awful lot of upside from there, in years to come. GLA

picked 20% of £4bn NPV with todays issued shares (~1.8bn) unless I am mistaken is around 45p. If that's the minimum we might see, I'm happy to take the risk that my shares would only fetch 45p. I really would rather hold out for 50 though, you can call me greedy if you like :)

I've read a fair bit now about arguments for gold v btc and I have to say I don't struggle with it, personally. I see both as decent investments, my horizons being 3-5 years. Even if Mr Saylor is right and btc one day becomes the standard (instead of gold) these transitions don't happen overnight. I am invested in a gold explorer/producer which mines at $600/oz and sells at $1850+/oz. What's not to like? If I believe in my investment timeframe 3-5 years gold is unlikely on average to fall below $600/oz, then it is a sound investment.

Argo mines btc at 85% profit, maybe less at lower btc price, I don't know what the b/e is but lets pretend $10k. I like the future potential of btc and I think the average price will be a lot higher.

So to me one doesn't have to do 'either/or'. I don't know which one will do better. I have a suspicion, and historical evidence suggests, btc has more upside, gold has less downside. So why not hold both? I am super bearish on $, £, and largely I hold a portfolio so my net worth is not in currencies people can at will print more of. Both very viable investments and I'm very very comfortable holding both.

To the argument of 'which will perform better'. If, like me, you are very comfortable with 'not maximising returns' which I am, it is very easy to hold both. Who cares if gold does 1.3x and btc does 3x? Of course, I have to have enough of both that the difference of not only investing in btc in this scenario doesn't matter to me, if it is mainly inflation I am hedging.

I think to a lot of PIs this is difficult arithmetic because people feel they have to chase the big returns. IIs don't have to chase the big returns. They have to moderate risk. They can't go 'all in' on one asset. And that is as good an argument for holding gold against bitcoin as any because I am certain many institutions will continue to invest in it over a timeframe I care about.

Anyway thought I'd drop that in because on the gold forum/discussion group I follow I see a lot of anti crypto sentiment, on the crypto boards you see a lot of anti gold sentiment. This is missing the point. There should on both boards be lots of anti $ sentiment and big institutions will be well aware of the pros and cons of both of these asset classes and if they are remotely smart are already investing in both. All IMHO.

Vermelho will be producing by 2025/2026 for the very simple reason that nickel is going to be in huge demand. It is a low cost (C1) asset, modest capex, so it will get developed by then. Nobody is going to leave an asset of that not producing during nickels bull run. How will it get financed? Maybe the JV partner but Horizonte as a company will be in a completely different place in 2 years - it will be a producer, with committed financing partners already onboard, who have trust in the company, management, and will already have parted with significant $ (for e.g. Orion but possibly others).

Horizonte will not have to go through exactly the same process with Vermelho that they had to go through with Araguaia financing, no way. When Horizonte started financing Araguaia mcap was round £50m. I don't know what it will be by the time DFS is complete on Vermelho and we are ready to finance Vermelho but the mcap will be significantly north of this, particularly if we have reached production on Araguaia.

Nickel prices will already be (probably) a lot higher in 2023 and 2024 than they are today. I think all these factors combined will make either Vermelho easy to finance, or, the company such an attractive asset that we will be purchased for some decent $$$. All IMHO

Xenor 3-4 years is very reasonable for an investment. No PI really holds for decades, if they say they do, they don't really know what they need the cash for in 4 years. My own investment timeline is for 2025 and happy to hold ARB till then. I also think people who think they will definitely make money in 3 months or 6 months or whatever - Mr Market doesn't always see it in that way. Somewhere between 'get rich quick' and 'decades' there is good money to be made, I think it is on a 'few years' timescale. All just in my exprience others have got lucky quicker of course.

also last thing before I do some work - if you don't have faith in btc direction long term, it's a gamble. You can't tell if it will go up or down. But my money is on the big insti's wanting you to feel that way and that is why I think this manipulation suits them. I am fairly comfortable btc will rise long term (hence invested), I don't see it is a gamble. I see these wild drops as trying to encourage people to think it is a gamble (and part with their btc and argo shares). All IMHO.

yes sorry missed that bit.

Current bitcoin price of course affects sentiment about future bitcoin price. You might emotionally value argo differently if current btc is $30k than if current btc is $60k or $100k because it affects your emotional response to what the future btc might look like hence what the company's value might be.

But one thing I've learned in the (brief) foray into investing in crypto is - that's part and parcel of this industry. If you want steady you invest in lean hogs, cocoa, or lumber. All three are readily tradeable. You have to invest here because you have long term faith in the overall direction of travel of the asset.

Also FWIW I think Argo will diversify and before the next btc bear market. It is prudent to do so and I think they know it. I expect Texas may mine btc/equivalent but it will also 'do other things'. And the other things are quite interesting to be invested for also.

See a lot of posts saying btc is this shouldn't the sp be that. It doesn't (with good reason) work like that. Companies should be valued on future earnings. The reason you hold the share is for future earnings. You are not expecting argo to mine the btc today, convert it into cash today, and give you the dividend today. If all three happened today the sp should reflect the btc price. In all other circumstances, it shouldn't.

The company should be priced on future btc price. If you think future btc price will be high, it's cheap. If you think future btc price will be low, it might be fairly valued or overvalued. What makes it even more complicated is, because argo isn't actually selling its btc right now, the current btc price is even less relevant than it should be (for e.g. an oil producer which is producing oil and selling it today). The HODLing actually exacerbates the uncertainty over what future btc price will be and therefore makes a valuation even harder to make but it makes the correlation to todays btc price less relevant.

FWIW I think btc will be higher, I am invested and see this as an opportunity. But the valuation is less straightforward than people make out. Has this current BTC cycle been manipulated? You betcha. The big banks manipulate things in the past with much bigger consequences - libor, forex rates etc. Why wouldn't they manipulate this lightly regulated industry/asset? Does it matter in the long run. Hopefully not if BTC's value will out. I think it is here to stay otherwise wouldn't be invested. But their agenda is their agenda they are late to the party. There will come a time when they can't sink BTC because insti's will be loaded and it won't be in their mutual interests. Probably getting in ahead of that is the name of the game here. I can't call when that is and have no spare cash, we could go lower yet, or not. All IMHO. But argo is a solid hold for me, and if I could, I would add. GLA

Flavour it's about risk reward. Is there better reward out there? Probably. Does it come at higher risk? Almost certainly. With Horizonte it is all about bagging the finance because the mine build - should be straightforward and the product - will be in demand. So I'm confident you will reach your goals, provided of course, we get the finance. JM's language was positive but we need to see delivery.

On the subject of 'zooming out', well technically I retired at the end of April, my last regular paid employment and hopefully that's it. I'm 47. Horizonte enabled that decision. Does it make me look at the sp any less? Hell no. In some ways better to stay gainfully employed to wait for that 50p sp target (or whatever your target is!) cos in retirement it is all too easy to watch it, I'm sure there are other 'retired' and 'retired' investors here who probably glance more than once a day at the price. GLA

Market jitters. US inflation fears. What will that do to interest rates/debt etc.

Needs to seal the deal while market conditions are favourable then the macro is largely irrelevant (well, a nice nickel price at production is of course very helpful). Just get financing done before US implodes itself as it is wanton to do every decade or so. You can bet your bottom $ participants to this financing deal are very aware of the macro and are turning every screw they can to get the price they want. That's just business. Still, hopefully equity markets live another 6 weeks and JM is 'on time' with the package. Maybe even just-in-time delivery will do...

shame I got no more cash. And everything else I got has fallen by more than Horizonte so I can't even make a tactical switch! Value will out but what an opportunity for a top up, who saw this 6 weeks from end of H1, not me, for sure. Markets ignore company specific news when there is a general correction. And why - nickel is flying? There could be something in someone trying to drop the price to get a better equity deal. Either way we should find out soon enough. But as I said, wish I had more cash....

FWIW - I hope the cornerstone is Orion - and I hope they like our BOD. They will try to get a good price, of course, but they should also be hyper motivated to help with A2 when that falls due - remember they can do streaming/offtake/equity/debt. I like the partnership idea and I like that they might protect us from unsolicited lowball offers. All IMHO. Then there is potential to partner financing in Vermelho for the JV bit. They have all to play for in this negotiation, there is a lot of pie to be split.

yes there might be contingency leftover from A1 also. They have to forecast conservative then with a trailing wind get it built earlier. These mines will make so much money capex of $200m will pay back in around 2 years for A2...

Bloodshot you might be right - I'm looking at page 15 of the recent presentation:

https://horizonteminerals.com/news/en_20210510-investor-webcast.pdf

Hard to be sure but I assume year -3 is 2021 which would put 2024 (the first year of production) at just below breakeven - I don't think 2024 can be the highest return i.e. Year 1 if the mine has just gone operational. Thereafter there are two very solid years of returns returning around $300m in two years (best ores) which would be 2025 + 2026. I don't know if the FCF here allows for capex payback - but if it does, then $300m FCF would be sufficient for A2. I would also imagine it is possible to start construction of Phase 2 without having all the cash in bank once the company is making steady income you don't need to wait for all the capital cost to be in, you can start a year ahead.

All of these estimates are based on nickel prices which I think will prove very very conservative in the future. FCF will be much higher in 2025 and 2026 as long as the nickel price is north of $20k which I think it will be.

Interesting thinking guess we find out in around 6 weeks time! Not out of the question but also equally likely they just didn't feel it necessary to say. I don't know how these deals happen, whether we would see finance first then offer or offer even prior to finance. I would imagine the buyer would want to see those banks committed? My guess is still a sale at around production but who knows I've been wrong before! If it is this year lets be having 30p but quickly before my other plays take off....

>>So if building from FCF I would expect it to be 2-3 years later.
A couple of years FCF would generate most of the revenue to cover Stage 2 capex, as they are mining best ores first. So this scenario I would expect them to start maybe building Stage 2 at the beginning of 2026 (having produced in 2024 and 2025). But I think it will be earlier because I don't think it will be from FCF.