Member Info for usually_right

i invest in property and shares. trading is a core activity. i top slice or add around positions.
i certainly wouldnt starve to death. but you would. i can tell. end of story.

i like the story but it tends to go up until it doesnt and then drifts lower til the next rally, so after todays morning mark down ive taken profits. in addition if the americans are going to pressure their techs a bit further kainos will probably suffer too. but as i say i like the story and so hope to rebuy at 11/12 quid.

you are no pro. you resort to insults. when i posted facts. probably the most clueless posters on these boards? me? 25 years doing nothing else. so not me. you let your emotions get the better of you. that makes you a poor decision maker. i will leave that there.
as for my support levels. july 2002, march 2003, july 2004 march 2008, october 2008, march 2009, april 2009. all of these monthly lows were within 60p of each other, just below, around 10 quid or just above 10 quid. all of these yielded moves higher of between 30 to 60%. yes there are some minor supports below 1227 down to 10 quid. but the big one is most certainly that around 10 quid, given its historical significance to producing rallies. and the key monthly support of 1227 releases a triple top worth a drop of around 5 to 6 quid technically. thats the charts. i dont suspect the fundamentals will be bad enough to warrant a triple top play out of a drop from 12 to 6. but i cannot know for sure. i would reassess at 10 quid if seen. which it may not be. regardless of what your opinion is on the direction, stay frosty because your outburts wont help you make any money.

i sold in a while ago when it started to under react to rest of market. sterling gains arent helping and its a lockdown stock so its probably being sold on those two fronts now. big gap lower today if doesnt get filled will point to levels around 22 quid. the problem the stock has is that the pe ratio here is still quite high, yet the growth in revs and earnings going out the next two years arent as good as in the past. so it may be a general rerating that the shares are under. im watching these but wont be prepared to step in within the technicals improving. id be far happier to miss the bottom and get on board once a uptrend recommences.

fwiw, about trust in management. i think they timed the high perfectly with tesla:) also keep an eye on katy wood from ark. she has moved into some non tech names in a bid to have the cash ready to buy pullbacks in her core names. up to now she has been spot on. so when she starts selling these non core name and moves into core again, i think that would be a good signal that tech is back in play.

i have spoke to someone that tried to sell their stock in bme this morning. they were told they could not since the stock was being shorted at this broker. the broker then wrote that the shorter was to be informed about this and i presume asked to return the stock so that my friend could then be free to sell. he was told he should be able to sell his shares by the end of the day.
i think one way around this to stop shorters getting hold of your stock is to do what reddit board traders did with gamestop. they put in a sell order 50% above the market which stopped the broker lending out the stock for sale.

i sold my holding in these this morning. its was only a quarter holding as i was hoping to build it up on dips but its been on a tear since 28 quid and by 37 quid i think its priced for perfection according to some analysts that talked about the stock on the last rebound to 33/34 quid. technically a weekly close at 37 or higher would be bullish, but a poor finish to the week leaving a bearish weekly candle and room for retracement. fundamentally i like the stock and expect it will return to 40 quid plus over the next 12 months. however, here it hard to justify buying in the short term after a strong run up. i could be wrong and it powers even higher but once you get to 40 quid you are back to where we were pre covid and i think thats hard to justify today.

the technicals are pretty poor on the move below 1227. you are looking at the 2000 decade lows of just under 10 quid as big support. also the opinion on reopening is often that due to the covid vaccine, gsks shingles vaccine uptake will be hindered, as they shouldnt be taken together. i have an underweight holding as i believe that post split the shares could be worth around 15 quid if both parts are added together.

approaching initial support at 536, next support 515. market is selling what worked in lockdown and buying what worked before lockdown. its happening pretty indiscriminantly now so B&M lower. however in time mkt should start sifting through what will continue to do well and which pre covid plays will not return to past glories. so i think those two supports should be watched for potential re-entries.

i would take there headline tips with a pinch of salt, some of them looking like they are written by school kids. yes the shares are cheaper than then and more profits have been made since then but the question is the outlook back then was probably clearer, allowing one to allocate a higher multiple. when do things go to far? the world was ending in march last year and the shares hit 36 quid. if we get below there i would be surprised if you dont get at least some talk of activists or a bid coming in. it would mean either selling bits off to raise value or a buyer coming in and selling bits off themselves while integrating the rest into their business. in the meantime margin compression and reopening the market has decided arent great things for unilever and it may next a set of improved results to change this tune.

you can choose to ignore it but that is how it is. its not looking into the future. the techs are the techs. they may play out of not. thats how it works. as for the other side, the fundamentals arent too hot right now with the dividend cut and the strength of sterling. so you can understand why its being used on the short side in pair trades. but you can make a case for a small of parts around 15 quid. as long as things dont deteriorate on the money side from here, you can make a case for the shares in the 10-12 quid zone, giving you upside to 15-16 quid. and any bid on the consumer side once split is going to come in at a premium to the prevailing price post split.

now that 2015 low of 1227 broken, the shares have next sup just under 10 quid, the lows in the early and lates 2000's. the triple top of the 12 to 18 quid range has a target of around 6 quid technically. its another question fundamentally of course. you can make a case for drift to a tenenr before some inspiration from the split works its way in to support the price. you can see a bid for the consumer division coming in after the split which should put a floor under the shares at a tenner or so but some will say dont argue with the techs.

you got a bounce of a quid nearly, what more do you want. besides, not all sup/res holds forever or even the first time. next sup is 1396. a break there may take you to 1316. to negate downside pressure any bounces need to close above 1443 the now rising former trend support. longer term support is by 11 quid, however i think youll need a significant mkt correction to see that. think low 1300's should be as low as it gets before reopening kicks in. thats whats going to fundamentally support these despite any negative techs.

yes thats the gap to fill. if not today then tomorrow maybe. good area to add if one has since reduced. 292p gap would be target. caveat is that technically under 250p the shares look awful with a head and shoulder tgt of 200p. on rising oil i cant see it fundamentally but if goes below there will be sellers. id hint at a false break at that point for a return back abv 250p.

lower of results miss. channel support 1441. if broken opens up 1400. given we are back end of covid, i wouldnt chase these lower, but if techs keep breaking on downside, the bounce will be put off. mt the shares make sense however.

a mixture of higher us yields spooking the market and crude got hit intraday by the saudi headline which was sort of expected but you never know when its going to hit so mkt reacted to falling crude. going ex-d tomorrow probably drew in some support when crude stopped falling. there is a gap to fill at 262 and also one above the mkt at 293. youd expect both to get done over the coming weeks.

the only similarity with dunelm is that the holding family sold a chunk of shares recently. the thinking might be folks will be released from lockdown and will spend less on homes, more on adventure and outdoor events. but as has been shown by b&m investor sale, it doesnt necessarily mean the story is over. while both are retailers, you can argue that dunelm is more cyclical, given homewares are not essential, so id be more cautious there. i dont own dunelm shares. b&m offerings tend to be more essential. food and drink, cleaning products. i think the discount store still has legs to run here, but i wouldnt chase the rally, rather add on weakness, given the market in general is susceptible to a pullback, taking most shares with it if it happens. so i plan to keep my half holding now, adding on weakness to 510-570 if seen, otherwise staying pat.

it hit channel resistance around 6 quid today so i sold half my holding out of prudence but recent interest in the shares is down to US fund buying. a US asset manager has taken a 5% stake in the company, this comes after SSA sold a third of their stake recently, what many thought signalled a possible pause in the trajectory of the shares. the shares may have got a little ahead of themselves here from a financial standpoint but if US buying is yielding rumours of more, then the shares may remain supported here.

depending on how the vaccines work not just in the uk but abroad, its too early to say whether novermber will see another lockdown. if it comes at all its likely to be a lighter one than at present, since you assume most will have had a jab and those ill will be experiencing it not the first time, but second or third, so it should be weaker too. mutations eventually should weaken it too. so i would say its touch and go but what you can say is that youll get a free run from march to october.

yes spread over ten years should mostly draw a line under the issue for the developers. and the taking out of the uncertainty is a positive. so sector is a hold if you have them imo and buy on weakness.