Member Info for usually_right

definitely a sector to be involved in when rates are rising and aviva itself is doing the right things to aid in its rerating. i think you want to be buying the dips in this as well as those in L&G and DL with the latter a candidate to be taken out sooner or later

its like dating someone before they get divorced. messy. once the consumer arm is split off i expect the americans will take it off the table quite quickly. until then nobody will want to do the dirty work, what for?

mkt going other way but clipper shares close to breaking out with a target near to recent highs on the double bottom/tea cup and handle formation. a break over 592p could trigger it. PE was sniffing a few months ago.

nav is simply the value of the stocks it owns plus the value of the unlisted investments. these are less clear since they get updated when there is a funding round, but generally if in the tech space their valuations move in line with tech. i wouldnt place too much value on nav in a quick moving market since its just a reflection of yesterdays stock market level. with tech stocks the nav can move significantly overnight so its not quite as important as that of a industrial fund.

i sold mine yesterday purely due to thinking the markets may drag them back down again. i think the details in the report were really good, bodes well for the future, but the uk market tends to do lots of toing and froing. the odd time you may miss out but usually you get many bites of the cherry.

falling sterling certainly wont do glaxo any harm since it earns in $. technically the monthly lows were 1227 and 1235 over the past 5 years. if the shares can close no lower than 1235, that would be a good sign. not that they are out of the woods, but that further technical damage has been negated for now.

contract wins and fulfillment going great guns. the shares do tend to be quite volatile and its tempting trade in and out of this but private equity was sniffing around last year but they could agree. any bid this year will need to be 7 quid plus. so worth holding on to in my opinion. there are quite a few potential targets in the uk and clipper is certainly one of them

$7 billion mentioned on reuters. thats dollars not pounds. seems a bit low to me. if its sterling thats around 5 quid.

re the stop, you can put a sell order in at 7 quid, well above the market. its unlikely to be executed but it also means the broker cannot lend your shares out to be sold again by someone else. the person i was talking about was more miffed that they couldnt sell their shares more than the fact that they were lent out to short. quite often no frills cheap brokers will put somewhere in the contract that you allow your shares to be loaned out but many people take no notice of it. but thats one way you can be sure of putting a stop to that kind of thing.

jayne what you say is quite sensible, people always like a bargain especially the middle class. however, B&M is an essential retailer and so it was able to trade when others werent and the risk is that the superb sales they report now will make futures years very difficult, in terms of growing earnings. in fact most analysts expect like for like to fall next year given covid isnt likely to be repeated and other retailers will be competing for peoples money too. however, b&m is expected to drive growth by openng more stores, so in the longer term i think the growth will be there. in that respect its no surprise an american investment fund has taken a decent stake in the company at levels close to present. at 6 quid i thought they were fully priced, at 480p i think they are cheap. so fair value is probably somewhere inbetween.

i am following the 100 day average for pets. i used the recent bounce to get involved but decided to cash out following todays test. the HOD was bang on the 100dma, so i would use that as a marker.

i think they increased their holding to over 5% from below 3%. its interesting that it has happened with the cable rate being where it is, after a very big rally over the last 12 months. i dont know the tax system in the usa but its possible they booked a profit on something else and had the sterling from lower levels. you never know. but its certainly better for sentiment that they bought in here at what are optically high sterling levels.

headline impressive but what they said wasnt in terms of pricing. they said that input prices are higher but instead of raising prices, they will try to make productivity savings in order to not make the customer pay more. this suggests own brands are creating real competition in the west. i think they need to concentrate on asia and south america, growth mkts where there is little competition.

i think anything that takes advantage of the stimulus package is a worthy hedge to a tech heavy portfolio. they are going to be building and upgrading roads bridges public buildings etc so i thinbk anything involved in us construction is going to get a shot in the arm. some of the stories aren't new and some shares are near highs but there is still a way to go especially if you pare it with the commodity sector and the roll out of EVs and renewable energy. but again you need to pick your battles and not chase highs, nor overpriced speculative areas.

boring is good. its about making money. full stop. absolutely nothing else matters.
if you want to help harshly treated animals, go work in a animal shelter for free on your weekends.
i see no contradiction. i dont know if they will reach 10 quid, i didnt say that. with present fundamentals they are v good value at 10 quid. however if they fall to 10 quid i would argue fundamentals would have softened further, although its entirely possible they can drift lower, why not? stranger things have happened in markets. i dont expect it, but i allow for it. as i said i will then reassess at that support. i dont believe i would hold onto the shares on a monthly close below that support unless the fundamentals warranted it. thats hard fundies, no what ifs, maybes. i believe opening an underweight position in the 12's is warranted on a valuation basis while fundamentals dont deteriorate significantly further.

yes thats an issue which clearly effects the market cap comparison but also the earnings. eps is diluted due to the higher number of shares so any money made has to be spread around more shares, thus lowering the eps. now on current forecasts the company isnt due to make money till 2023, although 2022 is expected to be close and its entirely possible that forecasts can be marked a little higher for 2022 if all goes well with the rollout and vaccine. however the shares wont be supported by a meaningful pe til probably 2023. so they could well be volatile and that means opportunities to trade in or out or lighten or add.

its quite normal to have underweight and overweight positions when running a portfolio. im not sure what the issue is here. i havent had a position in glaxo for over a decade at least and have begun with a position that is a half of what would be a normal weighting. so thats an underweight position as part of the rest of the portfolio. it can be cut entirely or added to given certain conditions. reassessment comes at a fundamental change in outlook or if significant support or resistance is approached. on the downside, the 10 quid support, if there is no deterioration in fundamentals i would hold or add, if fundamentals had improved. however its unlikely the shares would fall to 10 whilst at the same time the company benefits from a marked improvement fundamentally. however, all is possible in markets, even if only for sometimes short periods of time.
it is entirely possible that the shares avoid a monthly close below 1227 and thus negate the triple top break lower. in that case the shares may stabilise in a range between that support and a higher level maybe the 1300's or 1400's. but i dont think we can see higher levels without a fundamental catalyst as the earnings now are just not there and there is the overhang of the shingles vaccine delay, due to the covid vaccine. its too early to say if that will change next year, given that covid jabs may be yearly events.
as for comments on the likes of unilever, you may notice other shares of that ilk are lower too, such as reckitt. these were seen to benefit from the lockdown and now are seen to be suffering as people leave their homes. in addition, unilever has seen some margin squeeze, which is never helpful. its not a huge problem right now, but when sentiment is against you, these little details weigh on the shares. reckitt of course is more cleaning orientated and also has the baby milk issue. no doubt they will talk about this on thursday. but as well as those points, there are arguments that own brand products are finding their feet amongst younger consumers and this may cause structural declines in margins of some of the established brands.

cathy wood is more of the transparent managers, you can often find very recent interviews on youtube if you dont catch her on cnbc. she often says what she has added or sold and hints to her strategy.

i dont doubt what you say but i bought the recent dip and have almost 9 quid a share on it in a short space of time. uk stocks dont tend to run away - there is a lot of backfilling, sideways movement before further progress. i recycled some of my profits into other areas which havent got short term overbought or technically look good for another move higher. if you asked me which shares would be higher when the economy returns to normal in 12 months time i would include whitbread. just a little ahead of itself relative to others, for me personally. looking forward to buying any dip though!

that should be trading isnt a core activity