Member Info for usually_right

elliot is a disrupter, it wont be taking over gsk but it can use its influence to massage the board into moving faster or moving in a different direction. its not a long term player. the hedge fund looks to release value in its invest quickly on the whole, but it does have certain positions which its held for a number of years. but back to gsk, it may well want to speed up the break up and may have try to extract maximum value for the consumer arm. its always expected pfizer will buy it out but elliot may throw in a third player to increase the take out price. thats my view. i dont elliot have commented yet.

nm

revs ok how could they not be, bottom line stinks as usual but expected, but biggest issue is cautious guidance, that usually isnt a sp booster, we'll see

sweaty crease "arch" "egos" related sales behind the drop

ft100 is the target for MS. he is a determined and proud man. so of course the target was always to overtake wpp. health is the only issue going forward, but theres no question of any issue right now.

back in march 200, a company called lastminute.com floated. this was at the back end of the then tech bubble and the company like deliveroo was pitched to retail investors. history doesnt repeated but it may rhyme. please consider this. below is an extract from wikipedia re the lastminute.com float
From foundation to flotation: April 1998 to March 2000

lastminute.com was founded in London by Martha Lane Fox and Brent Hoberman in 1998 to offer late holiday deals online. The founders were colleagues at media strategy consultants Spectrum.[2]

By January 2000, the site had more than 500,000 regular users[3] and its offerings had expanded to include travel, gifts and entertainment,[2] with a specialisation in selling distressed inventory.[4]

Prior to its flotation, the company raised a further $31m. It opened offices in Paris, Munich and Stockholm.[2] During the ten months ending December 1999, the company handled £37m of transactions, which generated £330,000 of income.[5]

The shares floated on the London Stock Exchange on 14 March 2000. The shares were placed at 380p, valuing the company at £571m. The price rose on the first day of trading to 511p, giving a valuation of £768m, before falling back to 492.5p later in the day.[6] The paper wealth of the founders of the business went up to around £300m.[7]

Two hundred and fifty thousand private investors had applied for shares in the flotation. 33m shares – 25% of the company – were being offered for sale, the bulk to institutional investors. Private applicants received just 35 shares each.[7]
Public listed company: March 2000 to May 2005
lastminute.com share price (14 March 2000 through 14 March 2001)

Two weeks after listing, the share price had dropped to 270p.[8] In the first week of April, the shares dipped below 190p, half the issue price.[9] On Monday, 17 April 2000, after the biggest ever one-day fall in the New York stock market the preceding Friday,[10] £35bn were wiped off the value of the London Stock Exchange. By now, lastminute.com was trading at 30% of its flotation price.[11][12]

Its share price was rising again when the firm announced its first quarter's results on 6 May 2000. The company had handled £7.16m of transactions, up 68% compared with the previous period. During this period, the company had invested in a new version of the website as well as international expansions. These factors pushed pre-tax losses up from £6m to £11m. The market responded to the better-than-expected figures and the shares closed the day up 8p at 245p.[13] Two weeks later, however, the shares closed at 141p, as concerns over dotcom stocks increased, after boo.com went into liquidation.[14]

The introduction of a new website – allowing late deals to be targeted according to users' personal tastes – was delayed[15] but finally unveiled on 27 November 2000.[16]

Meanwhile, on 14 August, lastminute.com announced the acquisition of Degriftour, a French online travel agent, for £27.1m

also i would add look at the forecast pe, clipper has a much higher growth rate. the fwd pe for 22 is around 22/23 pre upgrades which are sure to happen.

private equity was sniffing around here. i bet they will be back. especially now that sterling lower. and yes, this is more ecommerce than wincanton, but wincanton equally fine its its segment.

today and yesterday you are probably seeing a relief rally in no profit techs. i think they have much further to fall. big tech with earnings should be ok however. not stay at home or those without profits. many of those have been hit hard and will never return to highs. but the likes of apple amazon microsoft etc, i dont think they have too much more to fall. i think they will generally follow the market to slightly underperform, until rates peak later this year, but i cant see any big downside since they are backed by earnings and have good prospects for growing those earnings, as well as undemanding fwd pe ratios. i think you can do a lot worse than buying them here although as i say, there may or may not be a little more downside.

this is nothing to do with london/lse. this is all stock specific. more problems than prince andrew.

yes spending on takeaway wont go away. however one of the big mrgin boosters for these types of firms is the fact that they dont pay wages nor associated costs such as benefits. the ground is shifting here and eventually these firms will be forced to do so. just eat, the market leader in the uk, is already paying a minimum wage and holiday pay. deliveroo will need to step and in addition it needs to fight the market leader for share. this means lower prices and so lower margins. during the lockdown, it was all delivery, yet they still couldnt squeeze out a profit. this period of time isnt coming back. so going forward those comps are going to be tough. if you are talking 5 to 10 years, maybe maybe not, but the fact yields are rising means future earnings are worth less than a few months ago. hence why cyclicals are in favour, companies that make money now and more importantly can raise prices not cut them.

its no longer the same market as 2020. when yields rise tech stocks, in particular one that dont make profits lose support because their future earnings (if they come) are worth less. and those will stock specific issues get hammered. i think deliveroo has a huge amount of problems.

give drivers free shares? they wont even pay them a minimum wage or holiday pay! there are serious esg issues with this company and its why many fund managers stayed away. but another reason is that these types of businesses are no longer in fashion, the jam tomorrow type. fund managers are in cyclicals in line with the theme of rising yields, so the promise of future earnings is no longer of interest given its reduced value. in addition deliveroo is a stay at home company and it couldnt make a profit then, so what hope for it going forward? the worst thing they can do is use their money to undercut justeat, because it will just be a race to the bottom. the bottom of the bank account.

yesterday the cdc in the states warned about a potential fourth wave. so reopening stocks over there took a knock. i would expect the same applies here given that cineworld has screens in the states.

yes thats unfortunate if trading on margin but this is why 75% of margin traders lose. in the long run 100% cash is best, you trade on your own terms. it may be a touch more expensive but its cheaper in the long run if you understand my thinking.

i think some liquidations are taking place this morning related to the hedgie that blew up friday last week

there isnt a great deal of oil affected by the blockage. it will have a minimal effect unless the blockage takes longer then a couple of weeks. however such a long time frame then calls into question the supply line of products to europe from china and vice a versa. this could hamper trade and actually have a negative effect on the oil price. net net there isnt a great deal of push either side in my view. oil is going to be more interested in the coming opec meeting, which imo will be positive for oil. until the recent drop there was some risk of more supply, but they have seen how quick things can change to the downside and this will keep opec honest in the near term.

for knife catchers only!

easy money has now been made. now that rates are rising, its not only a question of sales/revenue but also that of servicing the debt, so the bottom line is now the new TAM.

"Democratizing trading"
is nonsense. well no its actually a good money spinner for those handling the trades. when markets return to normal, those used to one way markets will lose interest as they did after 2000.