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closed its gap today and a big reaction off it

dividends trigger a tax event, the buyback is a more efficient way of returning money to shareholders. you might not feel it in the hand, but it supports the shares by way of reducing the float.

sooner or later these will be taken over, its just a matter of time. could be aviva could be someone else. while the shares are where they are 420p is going to be the price offered if forced to stab at a guess. for me this is a well run business and a hold. i add and reduce as price fluctuates but always maintain a position here as i think eventually we get taken out.

on a run up or down in the shares, it doesnt matter which when talking gaps, as gaps can be filled from top or bottom. as for predictions, nobody knows for sure. tailoring your portfolio to the trends of the market is all you can do and within that try to maximise your returns by adjusting when runs are outsized. for example im now out of oil shares, i feel the run is overdone. i was cutting until last week, when i sold my last portion. i think we retrace a bit from here, but i may be wrong. however, i have been investing long enough to know not to chase. patience is what is required.

im not able to post charts that would visually explain a little more but if you pull up the daily chart of barratt on tradingview or something else, you will see how the shares reacted a few times when the gaps on the way down to march lows were filled, when moving back up. the shares reach the gap, sometimes overshoot, the proceed lower over the following sessions. all the while the trend has been largely higher, yet buying adding and reducing, you could compound your gains. its quite tricky to get every move right, probably impossible, but the odds of a reaction from a gap are much higher if the shares have been on a run (up or down) into the gap. rio tinto is another one that reacted well following the filling of its gap to 58 quid from mid feb. gaps work best when in the direction of the prevailing trend or after a strong run when coupled.

discount or premium to nav doesnt mean anything when you are talking listed stocks and movements on a day to day basis. the managers have played the tech run as well as they could but when sentiment is against techs investors are not looking at nav which changes day to day depending on whether the nasdaq is up or down. i would watch sentiment as a whole to the tech sector, that way you can figure out when the selling is done. look at us bond yields, once those stop going higher, i bet tech puts in a floor. but the days of stuff trading on 100 times sales is over.

a lot of the holdings are high growth high pe or non existant pe so while the nasdaq did rise, those electric vehicle types actually ended lower or flat. over night the futures are lower the nasdaq but the likes of tesla are lower than that, 3% at this time at 580 vs a 598 close. also the sterling exchange rate isnt helping as the higher the pound goes the less the holdings in foreign currency are worth. however, i may be mistaken, but i dont think we are far from a blow off low in the nasdaq which should allow smt to bounce maybe 10-20%. where it will be at that blow off low is anyones guess but id expect it to then put in a few days of good performance at least.

partly self fulfilling prophecy and partly a look at where supply and demand may come in based on past events. so while charts look at the past only they can give you an idea going forward.

we were less than a penny way from filling the gap early to 178p so its as near as damn it. often and especially after a solid run, youll see a retracement once a topside or downside gap is filled or almost filled. almost filled happens when folks short or long ahead of the gap fill expecting a reaction. 158 and 144 would be levels of support that youd expect to hold unless we had another severe correction. i dont think the rates story is going away and that should support the shares. i have taken some profit friday with the intention of adding back on a pullback. this may or may not happen. i simply think its prudent after a strong run.

you can hit it two ways. try to time it by buying support or you can watch the us nasdaq and buy when that is at support. because a lot of the holdings are listed on or closely follow nasdaq tech stocks, any big moves there are going to be replicated by smt.
you can look at technicals such as retracements levels, for example 50% of the move from march 2020 lows to highs is at around 934. thats an area that might interest dip buyers. however be sure that if techs in america keep falling further, then support levels on charts will only slow the fall for smt.

dual listed on nyse today will bring it into the focus of us funds but not only. think the likes of home depot may be looking for bolt on acquisitions to help them build on what has been a stellar year and which may not be repeated organically. fergusons niche should interest a few bigger us players. hard to see past it becoming swallowed up eventually.

the discount i applied was to the 200dma in march 2020 at the lows. it was about 17% away from that line which is at 1028 today. so its no surprise it offered some support, question is will it be able to hold one. one can only look to the nasdaq and firstly us bond yields. if yields higher tech goes down.

a gap to fill to 178 then maybe a pause and some retracement.

i suggest you look at the prospectus but just as a rule cost of capital tends to be higher for riskier investments. now while a lot of smt investments are in tech, they are mostly large cap and listed, so i dont expect they will be paying double figures. i would think it will be low single figures, but youd need to check via the website.

rising yields means lower values attached to future cashflows. that is all that is taking place. nobody is saying this or that company which was good yeasterday is now bad. but if something is at a pe of 100 and falls to 50, its still quite a high multiple. so its not just a question of how far something has fallen. when yields find a resistance level, shares in techs will make a base too. so i would watch us bond yields.

according to the blurb but thats not quite true. many of those names are valued like tech and on very lofty ratings. just look at the names
Tesla Inc 10.75%
Amazon.com Inc 7.34%
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd ADR 6.27%
Tencent Holdings Ltd 6.24%
Meituan 4.26%
Illumina Inc 4.12%
ASML Holding NV 3.77%
NIO Inc ADR 3.40%
Delivery Hero SE 2.65%
Kering SA 2.52%

gearing is about 6.5%. so they are barely leveraged. which is good news when markets are falling.

tech shares are falling because yields are rising. at some point this calms down and a bottom can be made. but the days of these shares going up hundreds of percent are over unless yields were to fall to lows again. if you expect economies to begin recovering, this is not going to happen. so future gains will be lower than past given similar timeframes as the valuations afforded the techs will be lower than before.1028 is the 200dma which may offer some support. in march last year the shares were about 17% below that at their worst fwiw.

a few days ago the weakness was down to shares in lockdown companies starting to go out of favour as part of the reflation/reopening trade. also there has been some talk of taxing the ecommerce companies by way of a delivery tax. all things which could squeeze margins. however this hasnt come to fruition in the budget but the shares are still suffering from being in the lockdown camp. it may take a trading report or results update to see the shares rerated again, if of course business continues on the up, which i understand it to be so. i have lightened up on these on the failed break but still hold a position given that there are obvious M&A risks in addition to the underlining growth story. well worth picking these up on dips.

the miners deserve a pullback. copper was already pulling back, asia was weak overnight and both bhp and rio went ex so a lot for the shares to take on board after a great run. however i think there are some strong arguments to suggest iron and copper as well as other commodities continue to perform this year and into the next, so i would favour sticking with them. the best strategy would be to lighten on big runs higher and add on weakness but you wont always get it right. i dont think we will see much more than 5% downside on either rio or bhp from here and i will be looking to add on weakness in either or both of those names.