Member Info for usually_right

some decent volume yesterday, looks like you may get your lower entry. personally think +/- 550 a good entry/trade, anything sub 500p not on cards unless 530 broken.

i would use the WCI and look at the sub components there too. they are all pretty must near highs with marginal declines. shanghai la while down 15% or so off highs is still 200% up on a year ago. it will get better but drewry expects it to stay steady for the near future. i would expect a decline early next year as you just cant see it before xmas and the usual run up.

bme and abf up, asc and boo down, nxt flat. as you would expect on an online sales tax trade. would underline there is no certainty or even suggestion, but it does look like either something was leaked/someone leaked or a rumour spread. if there isnt an ost announced and if the shares continue to fall until wed, you might get a relief bounce on wed.

id guess it has something to do with the budget on wednesday. shares in the online retailers have been weak since the start but started falling off a cliff after media reports of rising minimum wage. while that itself isnt a game changer, its possible that other budget news has been leaked such as the online sale tax which has been in the papers recently. its an easy target to go for given what happened during the lockdown and what adds credence to rumours is that the physical retailers are all stronger today as well.

notry, this is what happens when money or funds are plentiful. this time its zirp. due diligence goes out of the window. the dot com peak was the same. i was in the process of selling my internet company and got to see how it all works at the management level of those doing the investing and then the exiting. it was an open secret that most of it was rubbish. but while the music was playing everyone played pass the parcel and scraped a bit off the parcel each time before passing it on.
you can fake it til you make it while money is cheap, but when rates start rising, its show me the money time. the city is never your friend unless you are on top of your game. thats often a shock to folks when the tide turns.

ingenuity is a DTC platform. i use the phrase v loosely, a little amazon for consumer products. its has clients like nestle coca cola for which it offers a complete solution (as far as retailers are concerned, but hosting is done elsewhere so its a cost to ingenuity) from advertising, to handling the goods for delivery. the similarities with amazon end there. amazon the complate package (cloud), has scale which ingenuity does not and its going to feel rising costs in a way which amazon is partially insulated from.

here is a very good piece from Lex, part of the FT. It's gated for premium access, but well worth it. Often a cut above the rest of the paper which itself is very good on the whole.

https://www.ft.com/content/8856db24-644b-47d2-8311-dcf9fc288b3a

more from the standard ft, still gated by at a lower level or just simply a trial level
https://www.ft.com/content/8b88d9d9-1ee4-496c-ba8b-342659401401
https://www.ft.com/content/cc8095b7-5b9f-4b01-a3a9-a1a5e3d6e29f

the gist is the group trades at a high valuation and it is becoming clear its not as scaleable as they have suggested in the ipo

forward order above pre pandemic. that is the most important headline once you have read that they are not experiencing disruptions due to supply chain or other and that set targets are expected to be met.
as i have said before its next years profits that will be the biggest and youd expect shares of the better builders to test recent highs within the next 12 months.

i dont think there is that much potential when you get down to it. scaling while keeping costs down looks difficult. but you get these kinds of businesses towards the top of a cycle. the way the float and a lot of the business itself is handled leaves a bad taste in the mouth. i dont have any position and dont intend to either way.
i wont name names but a couple more that floated this year on the lse will have their "coming out" days soon enough.

has lastminute.com write all over it im afraid. and it felt so from day one. and it appears the squid has impeccable timing as ever. do as goldman does, not as goldman says.

wpp isnt the best example, its not even got back to pre covid highs. today commodity plays and financials are higher, much of the rest, esp high pe is lower. a number of factors are causing derisking.

general mkt profit taking on a range of issues such as inflation gas prices etc and this one isnt immune. sup at 7 quid then and 6 quid. i dont think they go any lower than that.

bond holders are not going to let the shares move to to over a quid and then do a debt for equity swap. they want it as low as possible and then they will step in. thats how it works. or they pay their bonds off, which they cant.

bond only did 56m in the states, a bit of a miss, hence the weakness.

130-150 is where theres sup. if anyone will step in its there. but for now there will only be bad news from supply chains wages fuel etc.

construction pmi woeful. all construction or build related getting it in the neck today

better to travel than arrive is what its termed - the sp moved higher in anticipation, then fell on the news

prettywild, im saying the run up in the shares in the few days before bond was the pricing in. now folks are taking profits. buy the rumour sell the fact. other films, depending on the underlying coverage leading into them, will have their own effect, positive or negative.

bond was priced in in advance, thats why they say its often better to travel than arrive. now its a question if interest will be maintained until streaming release, thats an unknown and will affect the price over the next few weeks. also worth monitoring online piracy figures, as this will be taken as a negative.

not suggesting, its a sup thats all. if gets there, to be considered. whether it gets there? like anyone else i have no idea.