Member Info for usually_right

mkt cap is still 1bn. if doesnt close at 74p today then technically also looking v bad. 40/50p. its all about the pathway to being able to service ones debt.

explains why the shares have outperformed over the last month. i was hoping to add to my position on weakness but despite a lower ft100, these shares have stayed firm.

results are fine. the shares, unlike some builders, had a run up into results. today is a blood bath for the markets so the fast money is leaving as well as the natural selling.

bp isnt alone here. many other oil majors have struggled to match crude gains. in fact the xle etf has really underperformed crude. so maybe its not the best way to play it if you think crude will go higher. i think you can trade in and out of oil stocks such as bp, otherwise you are risk being right on crude but possibly losing money. i will be interested in 260-300 otherwise i will let it do it own thing.

the prev days close was unrepresentative. if you take a two day view, the shares are slightly higher on a report that can be called a positive sandwich. they confirmed strong trade, although warned about a driver shortage, but that they were taking steps to mitigate this. so two positives and a negative inside that. so the shares are a little higher on the week.

you may be able to trade that figure down. one of my best performers in terms of money banked this year has been bodycote yet it hasnt move a great deal this year. buy lows sell highs while maintaining a core holding. repeat the process.

given the esg pressure its hard to justify owning this for a lot of funds. so that leaves trading funds which move in and out. and that makes it more volatile. as i said before, with crude at 52 week highs it could correct and bp is likely to go down further in percentage terms given the lack of support for the sector. but that would make them a trading buy on the over sell. id start looking in the 289-300p range, but be prepared for a gap to be filled at 262p, which is a long way and would require a bigger drop in crude.

consensus estimates are a bit lower than that at around 76p but they havent been raised for a while, so that is still to come from the brokers. even at present f/c its still only a 8.5 fwd pe for 2022

no reason why they cant test 750-800 later in the year

markets are selling off in general today, large cap tech is the only real area of relative strength. so vod can be expected to be hit given it falls into the value/cyclical sector. as for the predictions, they are just supports that may be reached if those sectors keep falling. it is just as likely that upside resistances at 124-125 then 130-132 are tested. you just cant know in the short term. anyone that says otherwise either started yesterday or is writing untruths.

the low when it filled the gap was just under 120 so a close below there is bearish and points to 113/114, the previous break out level off the double bottom. if that doesnt hold you need to look to 100 where the rally began.

many of these names have moved back towards levels last seen 6 months ago and now offer a good entry point. i think thats lost on nobody hence the recent broker noises. personally have added to the builders over the last week.

speak of the devil liberum published a positive note on builders today. persimmon and taylor top picks

the ceo spends 100 grand on shares at 32p each. doesnt increase his holding a huge amount as he already owned more than 10% of the company but the purchase says a lot about what he thinks about the price of the shares, which are up strongly on this news. think these are ones to tuck away until next year at least, given the runway logistics will have in the next 12 months.

pullbacks should be limited to 500-580 unless there is a major market correction. i think any small correction might give 550-580 at best, which would be a chance to add. as i said before this one is going into the ft100 eventually.

with the reopening getting dragged out in the uk and europe, its their 2021 numbers that they adjusted to reflect this, while 2022 stays as is. i dont think this is any surprise. on 2022 numbers even conservative ones the shares are cheap and even an average 22 estimate gets you to a single figure pe for 2022.

stockready, i havent accused you of ramping. i have been doing this for 25 years so wouldnt be suggesting anything of the sort would have any kind of effect on a large cap like bp. the thing with this green revolution and what gives it teeth is that its going to be the main global growth driver over the next couple of decades simply because there is nothing else. the advent of MMT means governments have so far been able to print there way into this policy change. the effects of this on inflation may or may not show themselves in the net few years. right now we simply cannot be sure. however you can be sure that certain vehicles such as those using ice will be banned from between 2030-2050 depending on where you live and there will be a forced decline in demand for crude and related products. i dont think we are there yet and as you suggest there may well be overshoots as policy and esg army appear overkeen to get to zero in a hurry. this will create price spikes which will make majors a lot of money. however you have to understand that its only short to medium term. longterm ie. 10 years out, you cannot say today that bp will command the position in green energy that it did in fossil. because of this uncertain future, its a position to manage rather than hold with conviction today for the next 10 years becuase there is no certainty on that timescale. the near term is easier to map and so my suggestion of underweight and trading around that position.

august 12th

stockready all the things you say about dependancy are true but you have to understand that its an industry in structural decline. these are assets that are going to be managed into run off. the governments across the global have decide to bank on esg as the new growth driver which means certain industries are going to suffer or disappear because of it. whilst it can be argued bp is doing more than some other oil companies to shift to green energy, its not clear now that they will enjoy the same position in that industry that they did in oil over the last few decades. this puts its longterm future cashflows into question. hence it is very volatile as you are working on near term flows and demand change which moves the price. in a utshell, fifty years ago you could say for certain that bp would be one of the biggest oil companies in the world with the biggest casflows, but you cannot say the same of its place in the green energy industry. hence i believe at best you can be underweight and trade in and out of it. that doesnt mean it cant make a ton of cash and pay solid dividends over the next 5 to 10 years. it just means government policy and time is against it to make a shift to an industry that has much lower margins than oil.

hence the shares sharply underperforming the general market open but at least its early and if gains remain on the broad market theres a good chance this drop gets erased and forms a nice reversal.