Member Info for usually_right

i see them earning between 25-30p in 2022 and thats about 10 times fwd which i can live with.

rising covid, merkel looking to ban uk travellers, half year profit taking, all meant travel and leisure got in it the neck today. given its not a new trend and that they have been falling for a while, some shares are getting towards november 2020 vaccine levels. i think you will get a bounce in the second half but it will be more selective.

stockready, i think the point compound is making is the longterm picture is no longer clear with BP. you can make cases short and even medium term, but the longer term outlook survival even requires them to execute rather than just go through the motions as before with their up to say end 2010 business plan.

nobody was expecting the crude we have, most forecasts were $50/55 and the ratings houses had an eye on further cuts if prices fell. however given the half year weve had and the demand expected, you could even see some ratings upgrades over the next 6 months. but as i say, given the esg angle, its safest to trade these.

quarter/half year end profit taking is surely playing its part too. youve had a massive run and youve been given one last upside squeeze before the half year is out. all too tempting on the back of what can be seen as negative news from opec. im in and out of these when i see value. imo you want to be looking at 290-300 as a buy zone and 320-330 as a sell. with a mild upside bias to the ranges as the year runs through.

if you invest or trade long enough, you will understand you cant buy the low or sell the high every times, or even most times. all you can do is buy and sell as per a pre set plan. this might be technically based, fundamentally based or a mixture. and possibly you should avoid putting all your eggs into one basket.

200-230 otherwise i will stay underweight. they are quite high beta so its not as bad as it sounds as i run quite conservative.

there was large volume on the friday down day. but as i say, quarter half year end you get these big swings and volume prints. i would be more concerned about the share price if it doesnt hold its ground in july, in which case you can expect lower levels. however if 250/260 holds and provides a bounce which takes out 290p, id dare say the low for the next few months at very least should be in. this has of course no fundamental bearing and is only technical

you have to remember that quarter/half year end is also having an effect. so far today the performance of travel and leisure hasnt been great and theres some reasonable volume. however there are some small shoots of growth appearing today as there has been some buying in the afternoon which has lifted many well off the lows. time will tell as to how we finish but any intraday reversals bode well for nearterm performance.

cybersecurity is an in fad on the market right now but eventually the mkt will start to pick and choose. the issue with darltrace is the mike lynch involvement, which will create a headwind in the states. they would do well to divest of this asap. as for crowdstrike, its hardly cheap but its well followed and is winning business so you can make the case they can grow into their valuation. i prefer that and fortinet also in the usa to the uk players. but for both i would wait for them to fall out of favour as both has been taken up on the back of recent cybersecuirty interest.

today youve got more bad press for the travel sector and more covid related bad news. but the sector already has been in a profit taking driven before today. if the recent low at 260 doesnt hold you are looking at 250 and maybe down to 230-200 if that doesnt hold. you need to see a reversal on strong volume or a strong volume up day to change the short term trend. the area between 200-260 should see a reversal happen but its impossible to know when until its happened.

its a classic action when theres a shortage of stock. a mark higher in the morning to draw in some sellers followed by a drop to draw in a few more. biffa shares have seen this action periodically over the last 12 months.

buybacks are almost always better than dividends. the tax event that dividends create is a major headache that buybacks avoid

on close higher high needed so not quite there yet.

bought back into this one today. intraday a big move down and then back up on decent volume on the up move. dragonfly doji if we close around flat or higher. which would indicate a change in direction of the prevailing trend. so a move higher can be expected.

reaction by end of day now key to near term direction. if they can managed to finish flat or higher, this should move higher in coming days. if they move below the gap 462 price, then more weakness due.

danielh, yes when a lot of folks are following something and or aware of something, it then becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. so at the very least you need to be aware of these things. using technicals can shave a lot off entry prices and add basis points when exiting.

important day technically as falling below the 200dma so far today. not seen since around the time of the vaccine news last november. a close below the 200dma puts 119 into focus. if that holds then it would look like the 9 month range holds for now (c.120-140). if not and 119 breaks then 113 is the next target. the shares are good value but you cant argue with the trend, so if they close below the 200dma today you are going to get some technical selling.

the whole sector has been moving lower in varying degress since april. youve got higher input costs and the stamp duty cut off along with rising rate risks all combining to put pressure on the sector. however order books overall are strong as will be selling prices so i believe its will soon be time to add to the sector.

i bought the dip but will be adding once 1475 is broken on a closing basis, or on a dip after that has happened. time will tell.