Member Info for usually_right

very good volume and any rally today will see shares break min downtrend in place from june. a week ahead of results a break higher here would eb significant.

just to make it clear, the takeover is not about cost savings. i read back what i wrote and just wanted to make that clear.

parker hannifin is a pretty big in the field with a very good track record. i think they have maintained or increased their dividend for more than half a century so they know what they are doing and certainly will have the funds to complete. so i dont think any issue will be financial. the government was consulted prior to the announcement and they are on board as things stand, especially the takeover is not PE and about cost savings. Parker is in the aerospace sector and does have some UK government contracts but presently the two companies have little overlap. It allows Parker to move into new areas within the sector. so the only risk i see is dramatic falls in the market or an extension of covid which may cause some of the parket institutional holders to maybe question the price. however its a very small risk imo and i expect the deal to go through. i think the price should find support around the previous high of 7 quid and having taken off a large chunk on the announcement, i might be inclined to add a bit back there.

if bonds stay firm which i expect they will today, the sp will stay firm too. if yields have turned the corner, vod may test 124/125 in the coming weeks. either way, the shares are worth tucking away while at these low levels as 5g commercial flows are a big future growth driver.

i still have these in the possible takeover bin. there was talk last year and i wouldnt be surprise to see a 420p bid if one comes, although i stress i havent heard anything since. but while the company continues to perform and pays an above average yield, you can afford to wait this one out imo.

although on one hand its a great time to be an insurer, bond yields are falling and these act as a headwind for insurers as well as banks. i think once yields turn higher, you will see the banks recommence their move higher, along with the insurers.

well in this case the poster is saying that most of their own picks are down. any broad tracker would certainly have done a lot better. if you are able to do the work and get the performance thats fine, but if the objective is to make money yet the poster is losing, it might be better to allocate the majority to a broad tracker and spend your time doing other things.

i think quite simply, if most of your shares are down, you either need to change your strategy, or stick to funds. if you are getting something extra or something intangible from making your own investments, thats another matter. but if your purpose is to make money, youll be wise to hand the reins to a professional broad based fund or make changes to the way you pick your portfolio. keeping things simple, following a plan, is a good start.

the price was quite low. a day after a quite rich meggit takeover, the mkt was a bit underwhelmed and to be honest the shares had held up well against sector weakness. so they didnt break the bank but smiths have been struggling with the medical business and they do retain a minority stake in the business which can become something material in a few years. in the near term the energy sector should have performed well given the high oil price and thus related activity, while the aviation side you expect should have seen the worst by now. going forward it all depends on whether they can boost margins but i dont think there is a great deal of downside as there was talk of a full take out earlier this year and you cant rule out the americans coming in again for whats now a smaller smiths.

because of the spin off and takeover speculation, the shares didnt really follow cyclicals lower in the recent correction. anything below 14 quid puts them back in line and then some, so think 13-14 quid makes a good addition.

the deal wont clear for a long time, not til next year. so youve got the risk that in the meantime something derails the deal.

the difference between the sp and the offer price is the risk the mkt sees of the deal not being done. sometimes the sp may go above the offer price if the mkt believes a rival bidder my emerge. in the case of meggit, the 50p gap to the offer price probably reflects a small risk that the government gets involved regarding the defence elements of the companys portfolio. i dont believe its a significant risk but thats the reason behind the gap. as time goes by and we approach the deal date, the sp should rise into it and get to just about 800p.

there you go. boom. nice price too. and whats more there are still a dozen or so targets in the ft350 theat may go the same way!

they wont be doing any more lockdowns. they have seen the cost and disruption it causes. and there simply is no more money. however, some increase in restrictions cant be ruled out in the winter, but i would suggest that if the present path stays the same, the new variants do appear to be less lethal than the past (there is a good report on this by jefferies and also jpm).

profits improved due to cost cutting but revenues didnt do much from a year ago, and i think thats why the shares are down. im still underweight these but willing to add around 200 +/- 10%.

decent volume last few days but price moving higher on that than it should. often thats the pattern pre takeover annoucements. im not privy to anything but any bid should be 550p or higher.

there can be renewed restrictions but there is no chance chance they will ever return to the lockdowns of before, certainly not for covid19. they simply do not have the money to do it again and even if they did, the disruptions that followed afterwards and which are still playing out mean the minuses outway the pluses. the refusual to go back to work/supply chain issues etc feeding into inflation is something they dont want to repeat at any cost. currently the virus is following the trajectory of past viruses and if that continues it should mean less and less restrictions going forward, but the onus on getting folks vaccinated. there is simply zero chance of full lockdowns. however, certain restrictions if brought back in can have material effects on certain businesses. but all roads lead to normalisation.

weve just filled a small gap close to 30 quid and for now its bounced. there another one lower down towards 28 quid. id be happier if they filled that early next week and reacted postively off the gap filling to close at least flat or higher on day.

everything is possible and the shares are often taken as a bit of a bond proxy, but the results were surprisingly good so unless markets turn lower, the shares should stay positive. in any case they should outperform today at the very least.

there is genuine retail growth in em as you say and also business growth in the form of 5G. when everything is going to be remotely controlled and connected in real time, there will be huge amounts of data being used. and of course paid for.