Member Info for usually_right

re the us listing, he was v cagey on cnbc when pressed. he didnt want to state the obvious. if he decides on that route theres no guarantee that they get meme status and they may even miss the boat as these things move in cycles. may create costs will little reward.

by miss i mean they missed their own guidance to the mkt. hoever, the mkt is a bit frothy, uk assets are in demand, mkt is looking to pair up asset managers with insurers, the cap return, all of this has helped this morning. the company is moving in the right direction and worth holding. and any take out will be well abv 6 quid (i am being conservative) so well worth holding on to in case of that.

the way the us listing would work is by raising the mkt cap and then trying to sell shares and raise money that way to pay off debt. nobody is going to issue them further debt now, only rollovers or debt for equity swaps. if the market cap can get memed higher in the states, they can then dump shares as amc did. however its a risk and it requires the meme traders to get behind it. its a daft idea to be honest but its the only way that they can pay off some of the debt any time soon.

america is not going to new lockdowns. while variants follow present path, it is never going to happen. politicians may talk, but thats to stop people from getting too sloppy, but thats all it is. talk. delta is peaking or will peak over the next week or two in america and then they are off to the races again. there may be some restrictions in some states, but no lockdowns. it would take a new variant, which is dealier, or a new virus, to reconsider that opinion.

there wont be any more lockdowns. they probably cant afford it in terms of debt but more importantly they cant afford the disruption , supply chain effects and the inflation it brings. given the virus appears to be following typical patterns and mutating to a less deadly form, they may apply some restrictions in the winter but that is as far as it will go, all things being equal.

bit evasive as to reasoning for us listing, but clearly he would be looking for an amc effect. getting the mkt cap up to a few billion is the only way they can pay off debt.

they missed on the operating level so its a surprise that its up at all. the capital return helps but also the positivity of the markets esp towards uk assets. i think the shares are doing well today considering.

it will provide a short term boost for now. but until it happens there wont be any major covering as bond holders need to stay short the shares as a hedge. so you are only talking about some smaller traders or funds which wont really move the needle, although its certainly a positive boost in the near term.

the plan was to slim down and sell non essential assets so not necessarily spend the money elsewhere. tbh you wont get many bargains today so better hand it back to shareholders thru a buyback or dividend. in any case a smaller fitter aviva makes it a tgt for a big asset manager

ex today. a close at 5780 or higher would be a good result on ex day.

the plan will be to become a meme there get to a 5bn valuation or more and then dump stock to pay off debt. so that at least rules out a capital riase or debt for equity swap until that happens.

clear that they want to do an amc with the us listing.

operating profit missed so opens lower. but plenty to like here.

aviva has got really lean recently and while its still a way behind l&g, the valuation adjusts for this. however insurers are now starting to be viewed differently. recently youve had an asset manager buying an insurer in the states and i wouldnt be surprised in they start sniffing in the uk. there are some incredibly well run insurers are relatively low valuations.

most folks have never seen a bear market and think there is nothing beyond tesla, peloton and gamestop. eventually they do and most that sit exclusively in growth go away for good. its a great time to be an insurer, you keep hearing it from the companies, most recently admiral today and given the low uk valuations still, in many cases, i wouldnt rule out m&a here. in the meantime it continues to throw off cash while you wait. not a bad place to be in.

well for a start there is no other offer to accept. transdigm is yet to make an offer and it has not long ago underlined that no offer may be forthcoming and in the case that it is, it may be a mix of cash and alternatives. the parker offer has government consent which is an important consideration given the defence element as well as the issue of jobs. so its very early days and until transdigm make a concrete offer, there is no point in meggit board changing their view.

its a v high price. i know the parker bid was baulked at in some quarters in the states. this transdigm bid is even higher at about 18 times pre covid which is v high for uk historic standards. i run a conservative portfolio but even so i think its prudent to take off the majority up here esp since you are getting well over what parker will give next year, today.

no certainty of an offer and while the price is still less than 20 times pre covid earnings and cheap on US valuations, its very rich for uk valuations. i have taken more off here. there is a chance they dont bid in which case the shares move back to 700-750 and the upside is only another 50-60p or so.

another industry player not pe. no offer yet but both sides reviewing.

volume to price action better last few days and with delta appearing to have peaked, you might see a rebound in the shares from here. ft100 about to hit new highs, you can expect some narrowing of the recent discount imo.