Member Info for usually_right

many negatives such as input prices which consists of wages, production costs, logistics. then youve got coming out of covid which means tough comps. add in rising fuel prices (nat gas is up a few hundred precent since the summer) which will destroy consumer confidence and temper spending in many cases.
all of this wont last forever but it does look like supply chain and wages are not something that will pass in a few days and will drag on into xmas. the mkt will eventually reach a floor but until you see some light of the end of one of the above tunnels, the going will be tough.

conditions will get worse before they get better. sp may or may not see thru that. i have sup at 140/150 and would be prepared to have a go there. otherwise its possible that more could be priced in. many are sitting ducks here, i wont mention names we know who they are.

yes next have said that things may not be as good as they seem. worried about warehousing and logistics staff for xmas, as well as cost of living which may reduce demand.
next is a v well run ship. if they expect issues, others will fare worse. if you want another retailer thats coping better and has actually raised margin forecasts recently, thats b&m, bme ticker. add in the fact that increased heating and power bills will force folks to the discounters, they should outperform the sector and probably provide an absolute return too, given that they haven't pointed to any supply chain issues and have actually raised prices enough to raise their margin forecasts.

xmas will be an utter supply chain disaster. and if we get a cold winter, energy prices are going to wipe out the consumer. energy is already up a stronger, but gas could easily double from here if theres an early cold snap. there just isnt enough supply thansk to the eco warriors demanding funding cuts before the infrastructure for renewables is in place.

importers have it worse. but thats not the point. no reason to be exposed to so many unknowns. these issues could continue into the new year. you just cant say for sure they wont.

they are marking down margins, thats not coping. fuel shortages, fuel price hikes for consumers, exiting covid, rising input costs, supply chain. anyone importing anything esp from asia have huge probs. until theres an end in sight u just dont know where it will end.

wages, supply chain, tough last yr comps. perfect strom for boohoo. strong tech sup by 140/150. otherwise its anyones guess.

fuel, wages, supply chain and rates all dogging the sector as a whole. it will take results and trading updates to sooth nerves, or not. either way many shares in the sector arent at too demanding valuations so you can certainly nibble on some in the sector now, others soon.

for stagecoach v much so, its a long term job. no doubt they see the economy on the mend and will act like they may pass it up but in the end they wont. more likely imo is someone coming in for nex us assets. thats my view. in the past there have been us noses from pe sniffing and if they wait for the stagecoach nex tie up to complete, its years away and the price will be much higher to pay. so its now or never.

its end of quarter coming up so any shorts wanting to book this quarter need to close their positions by the end of tomorrows trade (since its t+2). todays move is on low volume so generally not expected to mean too much, but it is going to close above the 50dma and since theres a proposed tie up with stagecoach, you cant rule out another suitor and in these cases the price moves abnormally on low volume (due to insider trading regs).

those with ties to macau have been crushed as china clamps down. stay away from macau. compare performance of wynn resorts to penn national, the former has a lrg position in macau while penn is us based.

ft100 membership is muddy waters given dual share structure. but we all know why martin chose this route. he is not in the habit of building something up only to be asked out of the door. happened before and its to ensure it wont happen again unless his wishes it to. there is no more to it than that. besides the city knows there is no better placed opinion than his when it comes to media.

because its v v messy to do. mgm is a partner and has final say on any us assets while draftkings sp isnt looking too hot. its v pricey im not sure how many would want to exchange entain shares for those v lofy draftkings ones. lot of variables but if draftkings shares keep dipping this deal has little chance. imo entain better off doing a deal with mgm for the us betting.

absolutely. this merger action will force the hand of any us suitors as once it begins it will be too messy to get involved and a higher price would be needed at the end of the process so anyone that wants the us buses will need to man up in the v near future. hence the big move in nex.

not the biggest of premiums, i wouldnt be surprised if the americans try to get involved with either of the groups. nex itself was talked about in terms of its us ops.

the market in general is correcting, so most shares will follow the market to varying degrees.

iron ore futures in singapore touched a 6 year trendline at todays low of $90. for perspective, the covid low, when the world was ending, was around $75. so are pretty close to the low in terms of iron ore prices.

iron ore futures hit 108 today in china. down from over 220 a couple of months ago. covid low was around 80 bucks so not far from there. at just above 90 there is a gap and channel support stretching back to 2015. so in other words i think youve seen the worst of the falls.

they are doing many things right and it looks a good little business but as you say, there seem to be sellers holding the price back. i think its certainly one to accumulate on weakness as sooner or later the business is going to get rated at a higher price.

recently martin sorrell has been talking about a thrid bow and todays announcement is the start of building that out, tech services.