Member Info for usually_right

iron ore futs fallen $100 from highs of $220 plus. they are now about $30 away from covid lows so i would think the worst has been seen as far as pricing of iron ore is concerned. this should mean rio doesnt have a great deal more to fall.

various factors working against them but those such as fuel and covid you can argue will be temporary. there is tech sup by 200-203. below that 187 then 167, a full retracement of the vaccine spike higher.

the general market is feeling alittle pressure now so im surprsied they are holding up so well as despite whats been and the clear potential thanks to a proven ceo, the valuation isnt cheap. however i personally havent cut any of my position and am looking to add more on further weakness because there arent too many of these stories around.

some folks that have less patience or dont yet have a holding are using one of few pullbacks to get involved. a flat or positive close would be a sign folks will need to chase this higher if they want to get involved. that said, a general mkt correction would be healthy and would set us up into early new year at least.

i hope for bigger falls but i have no reason to expect them. if the mkt corrects we may get a chance to add at below 700p otherwise i dont think there is any chance as things stand.

peel also goes to 500p on this report. this acquisition is all about bigger margins going fwd, in a nut shell.

i bought a while ago so im in no rush to add unless we see a significant pullback to support that i mentioned elsewhere. imo these are going to reach the mkt cap of wpp in time. the results are great, nobody is really interested in the bottom line right now, the sahres have fallen back due to the bg run up and secondly, the mkt in general has got soft. i dont think theres any cause for concern in the medium to longer term.

600p channel and 200dma about there too. thats where i plan to add unless we get a general mkt correction and the shares show a reversal earlier than that. i dont have a crystal ball so prepared to add then, or just wait for the channel test, whatever comes first.

results are as expected. yes they beat and raised, but thats what we have come to expect. but its one of those that you want to buy more of on any significant dip.

martin will be on cnbc at 08:30 BST

there is a very good business here and i would give my arm if there are not interested parties in the company particularly at lower levels. however its a waiting game and i suspect any short term disruptions which lead to a mark down in the price may draw opportunistic bids out.there is a gap to fill at just under 3 quid while i dont expect to see the shares move below 240-260 unless stock markets drop more than 15-20%.

cycling business is currently impacted by the considerable disruption in the global supply chain

there had been some expectation across sectors that there would be some improvement here. the fact that its dragging on, means those affected are seeing the sp suffer in many cases. the question is whether they will be able to talk about an improvement come the results, which are likely to be pressured to the downside as things stand.

technically the shares filled the gap from late july and it might mean a bounce from here. ultimately getting folks back on the buses etc is what will move the sp going forward. if the shares do move below the july low, you can make a technical case for them by the channel which is presently around 200p. i have an underweight position in these but would be prepared to add there assuming nothing changes materially on the business side.

but they did throw in supply chain worries. i think input prices may be an issue too. but i think a miss in november due to these factors would probably be the right time to buy. that may be around the 3 quid mark or possibly a little lower than that.

when you think asos, input prices and supply chain springs to mind. the whole sector has a question mark until each company individually addresses it. b&m and halfords are the latest. b&m isnt seeing a problem, but halfords is. however they still chose to stick to guidance, while b&m raised theirs. anyone ordering goods from abroad is a potential banana skin as far as risks go.

great trading update from b&m. the risk for many retailers is higher input prices and margin erosion but here we are seeing none of that, with the company actually seeing higher margins. sometime ago there was some talk of a bid from the states after a us fund took a stake, which seems to have put a floor under the sahres over the last few months, but following this update, they may be able to break above the recent range as analysts move their estimates higher.

in the long term i think the shares can more than double from here. i would not be surprised to see this happen over the next few years. i hope to add more but will only do so on noticeable corrections. i try to avoid chasing shares higher, particularly if i already hold a core position in them. the market, over time, offers many many opportunities, just not necessarily in the order that one might want them.

the parker bid, when it came initially, was already talked about as being full. its was very unlikely transdigm, which operates more like PE, would be able to extract significant value on top of the ones parker was seeking at 8 quid. the parket bid all things being is equal, will probably go through, but the noise from the uk government will ensure the shares wont see the takeout price until close to when the bid is set to complete.

the pe isnt at all demanding so you have to be careful as it could easily add 50% and have a pe in the low 30's which drops moving into 2022 and 2023. sometimes you have to stick with names that will provide strong earnings growth. over the years i have been tempted to be clever and trade in and out of such names and often it has ended up where i missed getting back in at a lower level and ended up paying more. im not saying dont take profits as everyones situation is different, but if its just about trying to be clever, often the market will make a fool of you.

unless the results are truely outstanding and i mean a massive massive beat, its likely that the shares fall back, given the run up. but this is one of those names that you hope will fall back significantly, as its one you want to buy more of. 600-700 would be a great area to add but one cannot say if we will see it. more certain we can be that martin will be working to get s4 bigger than wpp. his conviction to get it done is as certain as death and taxes. and thats good enough for me. so lets hope the market throws us a bone and we can buy some more on a solid dip.