Member Info for usually_right

yes insurers wont be able to hit loyal customers but there are also many pluses. no more big discounts for new clients and the fact that old customers cant be hit means they are likely to be more sticky given that compaison sites are going to be hit by this. add in a cycle that has likely bottomed with price increases to come as well as the post pandemic boost, i think the next few years can be bright.

take bitcoin and bitcoin cash, which forked out of bitcoin in 2017. both cryptos are exactly the same bar two differences. bitcoin cash is cheaper to transact and is able to transact 8 times faster thanks its larger block size. apart from this they are exactly the same. so why is bitcoin trading at 40k and bitcoin cash trading at 500 bucks? simply because more people are buying bitcoin. when that stops, the bubble bursts.

after a pullback in metals, looks like the trend to the up is recommencing with a strong performance across the sectors globally (iron/copper/miners)

gap to fill at 767. if they dont support it there you are looking at 750p

i wouldnt chase them here. they are well priced and there is a question about comps given covid. if they dont close above 475 you can argue for a move back towards lower levels of defined range. i think you will be able to pick these up again nearer 4 quid at some point. a close above 475p would say i may be wrong in the short term.

chelsea i trade from abroad and often my buys come in as sells or vice a versa.

im not yet convinced with the ftse, we need the close above the trendline. for now it has been tracking the rising line but not been able to lcose above it for over a week since it fell below.

company reported well and with recent acquisitions is well placed to benefit from the switch from gas to heat pumps. whilst the new boiler ban isnt expect for at least another 15 years, you are going to see the biggest house builders aligning ahead of time, so you can a steady but ever increase demand feed into heating pump products going forward. think this is one to tuck away.

this usually retraces to well defined supports but last couple of weeks its stayed strong and last week was particularly high volume. i have no reason to think so other than the fact that its a desirable business to be in now, but i wouldnt be surprised if some m&a is brewing.

there has been some good call option buying in this share last week but ultimately the ftse needs to get back above its trendline that tomorrow comes in at 7050. the last 3 seesions we have been tracking on or below it, unable to close above it. if the market can move above, youd expect vodafone to run up with the market. if we cannot, then 6850 looks like an area of initial support and that might mean 120-124 for vod.

ft100 under tech pressure. failure to move above 78030 today means lower. i think once that breaks the market will rally 100-150 points. so you maybe see 120-124 first.

vodafone is trading at an average discount to its sector peers in mobile of around 15-20% in terms of ebitda. if roaming and vistor revs come back, then that ebitda miss of 2% from expectations will easily be recovered. further more, while competition is strong in mobile, all mobile operators are able to raise prices at least in line with inflation. its essentially a defensive cyclical, it has the ability to raise prices in line with cpi. so its cashflow will at least be protected. and thats expected to be at least 5bn nearterm.

the nov gap at 120 which was subsequently filled in decemeber and retested once again, should provide support. ahead of that is a prev low at 121 and also the 200dma and support channel c. 123p. if the ftse doesnt break below 6840 you expect that support zone to hold. however a bclosing break below 120p target the prev high at 113p. i think from 124 and lower we are overdone (pricing in of the vaccine, a return towards normal, took place from 100-120p), but that doesnt mean it has to stop falling. all it means it you are able to buy a bit cheaper than you should. at some point in the future the shares will be priced a little higher than they should. at that point you can then sell some shares.

expect f/c to move higher given last years eps almost at 2022 f/c. despite rally shares on about 13/14 last years pe yet expected to grow strongly over next couple fo years at least. still cheap.

every bid is different but generally its at least 15-20% or more above the prevailing sp before the play is leaked. it can be sometimes 40% if its well hidden. the sp has been moving higher but steadily, there has been no unexplained 10% jump higher. so anything happening will need to be at least a premium of 15% otherwise the board will refuse outright. as i say i know someone was sniffing last year but i dont know the details. im sure it was down to valuation. blackstone were interested in a unit of giant xpo but it fell apart due to price. and xpo has more than doubled since then.

vod sp might look reasonable today thats because its had a big fall already. as the market rises or corrects, different shares lead the move on different days. so you get that churn up or down jumping from share to share and it all combines to move the market up or down. you can arguely strongly that if the ft100 falls another few percent vodafone shares will probably not see the biggest hit. you can expect a few other performers to help move the index lower. that doesnt mean vodafone wont fall, it just means its less likely to head the losers list. today the commodity plays are seeing the biggest drop, they are leading, tomorrow it may be something else. or we could bounce back and there will be new leaders. it market churn and is old as the hills. you use these to add or reduce your positions in line with the underlying trend.

the levels i have provided, the ft100 direction will decide where the next base will be. its a mture business so it pays to buy dips and sell rallies whilst maintaining an underlying position given the business isnt going away any time soon.

PE was definitely in touch last year when the shares were nearer 4 quid. i think it was last august. i cant say but i suspect either they offered too little or the management wanted more and rightly so. a fwd pe of 20 for 2022 is easily possible here and thats some v strong and cheap growth so i would not be surprised if someone comes along. you could say this for many of the uk listed logistics teams as while share prices have run up, earnings and forecasts are going up even faster, so in some cases the shares are cheaper than a year ago even though the share prices have risen. tomorrow wincanton reports and they will no doubt see f/c pushed higher.

market is like a bee, it moves from flower to flower. right now you got a miss in some areas of the report and worries about inflation. a few weeks ago you couldnt drag the sp down even on market down days. its all about buying low and selling higher. use the moves of the market to add shares that have got cheaper while selkling shares that get more expensive. invariably this means buying so so news and selling more positive news. always maintain a position while you believe the long term story, so that if the market gets away from you (you wont always getting the cutting and adding spot on), you will still be involved.

support is now 120-124p. if that breaks you have to look towards pandemic low levels by 113 and 100p. i would be surprised to see those levels but if the market corrects more substantially, then they will mark most shares lower. however you are talking about great levels for the share price in terms of getting involved. i plan to add 120-124 and then again at lower levels if seen. all being well with underlying indicies, the shares should at least fill the gap to 140 before the year is out.