Member Info for usually_right

as good as could be expected hence the morning bounce but there looks to be a lack of momentum here. i think we will see 30 quid before they move above 36 quid. a close around 33 quid today would confirm near term weakness.

medium term the fundamentals look very good. short term technically you can argue a toping formation in play. recent high was rejected this week and if below last fridays low then could see a shake out. no doubt end of quarter has a lot to do with it and so profit taking behind it rather than anything more sinister.

34 times 21 estimates, 26 times 22 estimates. it is hardly cheap but nowhere near the frothy levels of before when i last commented here. the results need some comments from the management pointing to stickiness for post covid sales to stop it falling further.

fundamentally its fine and will be so for the next 5 to 10 years. so look at the charts, it cant even move below the 50 dma when it pulls back. until it does dont try to pick tops or you will be burnt. follow the trend until the trend changes.

sold position here. they look pretty fully valued to me at this price. technically maybe still room for them to move up to 670/690 but with ftse tapping resistance today, its one that had to go after its strong run. prepared to get involved again by 6 quid.

secular growth for many many years and for well entrenched growth paths you have to pay up. if growth slips then the shares might re rate. until then they will continue to enjoy a premium to the mkt but arent expensive for the growth you are getting. the mkt in the states is still young, the shares could easily double from here over the next few years. if not it will mean they have been taken out by a comp.

non exec director joined you today for 30,000 shares at the same price.

us market is hit by materials shortages (they use a lot of timber for the main construction) and so a large shortage of houses. this is seen in home sales and housing starts. in the us they tend not to build land banks so often are caught up in price spikes. our builders its well known like to hoard land and so can build the right amount of houses in order to not upset the price balance. our house builders are going to have good profits and will be raising dividends and i would use the present weakness to build a new position or add to an underweight one.

house prices will move higher with inflation in the longer term. sometimes overshoots sometimes undershoots. this is the case over the last 100 years. it wont change. the housebuilders are all going to have a great next 12 months at the very least. the vaccine news took the shares to a reaction high of 150p and there is a swing low at 145p. i wouldnt expect the shares to move below there unless we have another major event. there is a gap to fill at 155p which is retty close to the 200dma. i am presently mkt weight these but will begin moving overweight from the mid 150's.

often better to travel than arrive ie. no surprise to see some profit taking on the nes following the strong run. and i would add largely mkt led too given weakness in underlying indices over last couple of days. i see 650-700 as a range where one can add to position although its not a given that range will be seen.

CS upgrades today to outperform and raises target from 1560 to 1805p

today berenberg raises price tgt to 625 from 600

activists tend to look v short term and it can be argued in some cases harm the longer term prospects of companies in certain past cases. however, aviva has already been cutting costs, making asset sales and planning to return money to shareholders so maybe in this case the activist will just move things along a bit.

activist investor cevian has taken a 5% stake and is demanding a quicker return of capital to shareholders. there is a gap at 450p that could make a nice tgt if the move gets legs but hard to see that happened pre us cpi data on thursday. either way the shares are a solid investment, there should be a lot more to come over the next 12 months.

peel out today reiterates its buy rating with a 700p target.

nothing changes here, while martin is on board this one is going to the ft100 in next couple of years. its personal.

sorry that should be 0.4x versus debt convenant trigger of 2.5

current year expects to meet raised expectations and guides forward for 22 and 23. also reduction of debt to 2.5. looking good for the future.

yes earnings beat but they warned that this year hard to predict and may be tough given comps to last year. i think these are a buy on weakness but may want to let it settle down first. i think anything towards 5 quid a steal as they have shown they can execute.

here are two for free. 3i Bodycote