Member Info for usually_right

after wolseley demerger i suspect its more of a takeover tgt by a us firm. its now pure us play

after wolseley demerger i suspect its more of a takeover tgt by a us firm. its now pure us play

most of the house builders have fwd sales books well ahead of last year and add this to higher selling prices, the next 18 months or so of profits should be stellar. the smaller riskier plays will probably do better in terms of sp. but the biggest wont disappoint. you could easily see a return to prev highs for the big 4 imo and with hefty dividends for anyone in at 2020 levels. even buying dips this year should pay off. i certainly hope i can add whenever pullbacks come along.

more stimulus means more printing and so high inflation, which leads to higher rates. higher rates are good for financials. uk is doing its bit too, rishi is printing like mad. also remember that many were underweight or even short uk for a long time. now that brexit is done, funds are moving back in but finding few sellers at these levels. the whole market could do very very well this year, regardless to a certain extent what happens elsewhere.

a lot of tax selling in big losers for the year but also no deal yet for eu financial services so that may be a factor

yes shes bad but lets be honest kamani is a car crash for this kind of interview climate. he clearly is v important on the garment side and in the business in general but i would limit his input as it can come across as harsh and lacking remorse.

boohoo is listed and seen as low hanging fruit given the history. it will be interesting to see if they publish, as requested, the list of 64 factories that they struck off their supplier list.

if breaks 58p and stays there will drop to 46p to fill gap

any over extension of sp has been worked off from 20th thru 30th november, the sp is now capable of making another break. one thing to remember is that technicals are important but sometimes fundamental news will take over and the sp will keep moving, extending further. on another thread i have written about a positive technical set up, which if triggered might yield another big move.

updating this one with a new pattern. again we see another double bottom, this time a much bigger one, with a 70p target move on a break of 172p, which would take us all the way up to last years high and marginally beyond. once/if a break takes place, youd expect the early part of this move to take place reasonably quickly. so keep an eye on that level.

move higher late on is on news that brexit deal is now on the runway awaiting takeoff. small chance something could go wrong but the odds are now of a bare bones deal happening, which while isn't the best folks might hope for in terms of trade, it does take uncertainty off the table and opens up the market again to foreign investors.

a lot is in the price. at these levels hard to call a buy. maybe reasons not to sell, but few reasons to pile in here. technically a close at 4 quid or lower today marks a short term top (gravestone doji)

handle and cup forming on daily chart. a move above 25 quid could see the gap to just under 27 quid filled. as always the pattern is looking in isolation, a lot will rest on the underlying market but a technical break higher usually gives shares a period of outperformance vs the mkt.

200 day average nearby at 142. may offer a pullback there but likely to now see buyers all the way down to double bottom neck at 123. while this level holds, the double bottom target 160 area remains in play.

yes but who to vote for. the right to continue this nonsense and higher taxes to come or the left to continue this nonsense and even higher taxes to come. generally the world has moved forward as people haven't accepted their fates but where we are today, it does appear we will be close to breaking down if we don't stop digging a hole.

strong sterling and operations held back due to covid are the major concerns. however if you can look through these and see a future, then picking these up on dips is a worthwhile strat imo. while the dividend wont be ground breaking, you couple that with earnings growth and in a few years that dividend will be twice the price in real money terms. one to keep an eye on imo.

a close above 122p may draw in buyers. a double bottom has formed on the daily chart and a break above the neck line, the last high at 122p, can lead to a technical move of the distance between the lower end of the double bottom and the top end. here thats worth a move of 122-98, so thats 24p which would take us to the region of the 200 day moving average, also a key technical level. we witnessed a similar moved back in march where the double bottom yielded a move from 123 to 160p.

its maybe a little surprising aviva went up as in another world they may have been part of the bidding consortium. i picked it up most recently a couple of days ago and have taken profit today simply because of the magnitude of the gain. id be quite happy to hold onto it longer term but i also wouldnt expect any fireworks given the rate situation and covid. its something i plan to keep but when you see it regularly disappoint on sp performance you tend to take quick profits as it can always be rebought. this may change next year as the didvidend should become a focus and there is more clarity on covid risks. in the short term the morning gap is likely to be filled sooner rather than later. however picking this on on dips still makes sense.

since he has a lrg shareholding i expect he will fight tooth and nail but debt holders will not agree to a haircut for nothing, there will need to be big concessions. debt for equity is always on the table in these situations.

good news for the company doesn't mean good news for the shares. it very much likely means a debt for equity swap. ie. present shareholders are wiped out.