Member Info for Unnd

HarryWh - Thanks for the correction

It seems to me that the rampers and de-rampers are as bad as each other by trying to score points over each other whilst ignoring the facts which is causing alot of unnecessary noise around the SP.
The facts as I see them for COPL are as follows:
38.2m barrels - Reserves
993.5m barrels - OIP (BFFDU)
1458 boepd - current production
275m - shares currently in issue (market cap £40m @14.5p/s)
500m - shares in issue if all Bonds and warrants are exercised at worst case scenario (market cap £72m @ 14.5p/s)
$16.8m - Convertible Bonds with Cornerstone investor (Anavio - may or may not be converted)
$3.4m - Convertible Bonds with other investors (may or may not be converted into 17m shares over the next few months)
$42m - Senior Credit Facility

As I see it the conversion of the Bonds is presently acting as an unnecessary drag on the SP until either:
1. Production increases and/or
2. The RBL is put in place and/or
3. A JV or asset sale is entered into

With regards to a joint venture/asset sale Edgein pointed us to the recent asset purchase in Wyoming where Surge Energy paid $200m (£175m) for the following (COPL metrics in brackets):
3850 Boepd (1458 boepd)
10.1m Barrels Reserves (38.2m barrels)
400m OIP (993m OIP)
My interpretation of the above is that once COPL reach 4000 boepd production then the read across value of COPL is at least £350m.
With a worst-case scenario in the future of 500m shares this gives an SP of 70p

I guess the market, rampers and de-rampers will still create unnecessary noise around the SP to suit their own agenda, however we are on the cusp of true value being out over the next 2-3months which will see the share price being in excess of 70p per share.

Apologies for the length of the post.

Ed, we are just pointing out the fact that dilution is not good for shareholders. It may be that COPL had no other viable option. However you cannot ignore the effects of the Convertible Bonds. In the analogy if you later find that you own a skyscraper then great but you will only own half of a skyscraper. If people realise that and are happy with it then great.

Good analogy LT, however Ironhide is correct in this instance. The conversion of the Bonds means that you have given away half of your house to repay the bridge loan.

The Bonds were bought at 78% of the conversion price = 13p.
If all the Bonds are converted and the warrants are taken up, then we will have circa 460m shares in issue.

I see that SEPL have just completed refinancing a $350m credit facility at 6% above base and are on with a further $650m refinancing of bonds. Something for SAVE to aim at i would think.

Looks like we are headed for 19p without news !!

To put the current 27p SP into perspective SAVE commenced trading on AIM on 01/08/2014 at 56p with 131m shares.
We now need to at least double the SP to get back to 2014 levels.
I agree that AK is building a great O&G company, but it is painstakingly slow.
Let's not have any more take overs and let's concentrate on getting best value out of the assets we have.

The silence from SAVE is still deafening.
We are all assuming that the results will be next week as last year, but we have not had anything official from SAVE and it is not confirmed on SAVE's website diary of events - poor communications again.
Where is the refinance update.
Where is the Niger update.
We are all assuming that the delay in completing the Chad acquisition is due to the agreement on a final payment to the government and/or the employees, however this has not been confirmed.
We were advised that the Cameroon and Chad acquisitions were not dependant on each other, therefore what is stopping Cameroon?
After waiting 9 months i think the shareholders are long overdue an update so that we can end any speculation and uncertainty in the market.
SAVE let's have an update please as i for one are very frustrated with not knowing what progress if any has been made.

Here we are 1 month on from my previous post below and we are all still in the dark and i am getting more concerned and not bored.
The silence from the Company is deafening.
What has happening with the refinancing?
Where are the Niger plans?
Where are the H1 2022 Results - Seplat always manage to get them out within 1 month of period end so why can't SAVE.
There appears to have been more sells than buys recently - should we be getting concerned or just bored?
AK can we have an update please before we hit 25p and then only manage to get back to 40p with all the supposedly good news.

The silence from the Company is deafening.
What has happening with the refinancing?
Where are the Niger plans?
Where are the H1 2022 Results - Seplat always manage to get them out within 1 month of period end so why can't SAVE.
There appears to have been more sells than buys recently - should we be getting concerned or just bored?
AK can we have an update please before we hit 25p and then only manage to get back to 40p with all the supposedly good news.

To me Aligns proposal is far better as it anchors the SP around 1p with a much less number of share e.g. if £5m is raised through equity, debt and monetising warranties then the maximum number of additional shares will be circa 0.5b to give a total number of shares in circulation of around 1.8b.
Under the BOD's proposal the share price is anchored around 0.3p with over 1.7b of additional shares being issued to give a total of over 3b shares in issue and the SP held at 0.3p due to the 0.5b broker shares being drip fed into the market over a long period.
The possible risk with Align is if the Company is not able to repay the debt in Aug 2024 some 2 years from now. If the BOD cannot get into production before then then we have no hope in any case. If they do get into production as promised then the debt will in all probability be turned into shares at 1p (which is included in the 0.5b shares noted above).
In addition to this it would still leave the door open to Grosvenor under the 'imminent' agreement to close the deal as the share price would be around the 1p level ( i doubt that they would complete with the SP at 0.3p?).
To me it is a no brainer with the advantage of ridding the company of GC and maybe ME who both started this whole fiasco by stating that the the Grosvenor deal was imminent some 9 months ago (where was the due diligence to ensure the funds where available).
Vote Align.

It now appears that the reason that the presentation was given was to deflect attention away from the fact that the Audited results have not been published as promised by the RNS on 20/05. AK has cobbled together a series of slides from previous presentations to try to appease retail investors like myself who expected the audited results.
The audited results need to be published to enable Savannah to move on and put 2020 behind us.

I posted a question ' the RNS on 20/05/21 stated that the Audited results would be published on 28/05/21 , they have not been published - why.'
It is not good for a CEO to state that something will happen on a specific date and it then does not happen.
Did I miss it? did AK apologise for not meeting his own deadline for audited results ?
The whole presentation was underwhelming and a regurgitation of the presentations over the last 2 years with the exception of an additional slide on ESG.

Still waiting ......
It has been 4 months and 7 days since year end.
It has been 3 months and 11 days since SAVE advised shareholders of the unaudited results.
Yet we still do not know when the audited results will be published.
I am getting more frustrated each day.
Once they are published we can tick that box and move on from 2020.
SAVE please advise asap.

What may help is if SAVE officially anounced when the audited results would be published. SEPL managed to release them on 1st March.