Member Info for Unnd

BigBear - we would all like to see the bonds paid in full but it will not happen. Anavio are in the driving seat and if they expect the SP to substantially increase then they will not accept repayment at 4p. The best we can hope for is that the $37m interest payment is paid in cash to stop the selling of shares at the lowest VWAP. Anavio will be expecting to hold the shares, after taking the interest payment, and then slowly converting and selling over the next 12 - 18 months when the SP is substantially higher.

Pilot - I agree that the RNS does point to Anavio and the SL expecting the JV to be concluded by January and that the JV will include a cash payment.

IMO as part of the recent committed refinancing we will see the 8% of the share count that the SL is entitled to increased to say 10%. The principle loan and interest will then be repaid from the JV payment.

Also in my opinion Anavio will retain the convertible bonds at 4p but that they will renegotiate the $37m 'make whole' interest payment to take cash on completion of the JV to reduce dilution and stop the catastrophic effect of selling the shares to liquidate the interest.

Sweepie - Anavio (or an associate company) are paying $3.5m for 70m shares (a placing) which given that there will then be 784m shares means that Anavio will hold 9% of the shares, In addition they have been granted 70m warrants to buy shares in the future at a fixed price of 4p.

Hope that clarifies

Tiburn - the end of June accounts included $2.1m spent on the GGS. Therefore they probably incurred a further $2.1m+ in Q3, hence the need for further funding and going back to the Bondholder yet again.

IMO the CEO is waiting for the $3.5m committed funding to be completed, the cash in the bank and the 70m shares issued prior to detailing his plans going forward. The market may then rerate to the 4p placing price.

We are now at the effective price of the reset conversion price which is 4p x 80% = 3.2p.

Hopefully this should now be the bottom.

The drop has nothing to do with the incorrect RNS being posted.

Fastfood - yes i am aware that 1B barrels is not recoverable that is why it is valued at 50p for OIP.

If the oil is classed as recoverable then it would be valued at around £5/b. Therefore say 1B at 10% recoverable = 100m x £5 = £500m. Agreed that we do not know the recovery factor that is why it is only a rule of thumb valuation. Lets see what price any JVP puts on it.

Fastfood - i am not sure that your take out price is correct.

Obviously no one knows what CC and BFDU is worth to a JVP until an offer is made which will be based on the recovery factor of the OIP.

However, having said that a simple rule of thumb would value it at approx 1B OIP @ a conservative 50p/barrel = £500m.

At that stage we will have around 1.5B shares in issue so about 30p/share.

That would then leave COPL with the BFSU and 40 years of production (subject to the GGS working of course).

Tiburn - the other party is the Senior Lender (I cannot remember their name)

Fastfood - agreed Anavio could have pushed for an equity stake and a conversion reset at a much lower rate than 4p given that we went to 1.5p.

It is also worth remembering that Anavio have still not taken their interest payment on most of the Bonds that they have previously converted. It was confirmed in the RNS that Anavio will negotiate the 'make whole' interest quantum if a satisfactory JV is entered into by COPL. It would appear that Anavio are being fair and reasonable to all stakeholders and playing with a 'straight bat'

With Anavio's input this is leading to a JVP on Cole Creak with the ultimate goal of an eventual buy out on CC and BFDU.

Tiburn - IMO the multiple news had to be put into one RNA in this instance to draw a line under the past shenanigan's of the previous CEO rather than drawing numerous lines.

Art no longer has any power as he is not a Director or major shareholder.

Fastfood - you may be right regarding the Bond conversion price v SP.

I have noticed over the years of trading that the SP always meets the placing or fund raising price irrespective of the buys and sells - how that happens i do not know.

In this case the market has noted the Bond conversion price at 4p which is effectively 3.2p (4p x 80% )

I would imagine that we will hit around 3.2p and then consolidate and move up.

Stas20 - agree the RNS is open to various interpretations. I initially thought that the saving was for the remaining period of 2023 as you would not expect the Directors to repay the monies.

Also in your build up you have included Ryan as a Director when he is a Senior Employee.

John Cowan would be entitled to a higher salary as he has taken on the CEO role.

All confusing but lets not read to much into it and celebrate the fact that they are moving in the right direction.

Trans, as i posted earlier Art is President of a subsidiary company COPLA. He is no longer a Director of either Company. COPLA reports to COPL and its CEO and Chairman.

Just to clarify.

The CEO is Group CEO of COPL. ART is President of a subsidiary COPLA. He will be allowed to retire gracefully in 2024.

Blackstout - Anavio have taken shares at 4p. The only Bonds to be issued are to the Directors in December.

Deadgrateful - where does it confirm that lots of short positions were opened today.

I would be very surprised given that COPL has now secured funding into 2024.

Tiburn - i can agree that the Convertible Bonds may have been a necessary evil at a point in time 12 months ago. However i am not sure that they were necessary each and every subsequent issue.

The positive in todays RNS is that Anavio have elected for a straight equity raise at 4p and not for the issue of more Convertible Bonds.

On that basis I and some others may no longer need to mention the Bonds.

34 - you will probably find that the word Bond is in over 90% of the RNS's .

Some posters appear to be suffering from positive confirmation bias in every RNS that they read.

In simple terms today's RNS was notification that the Bondholders and the Senior Lender have taken control of the Company due to COPL nearly running out of cash yet again due to incompetent financial management.

Yes the BH have put the Company on a more secure financial footing for the next 6 months but it is at the cost of another 70m shares and future dilution due to the reduction in the conversion price of all the existing bonds from 6.75p to 4p.

The BH has stopped the gravy train for Art and Ryan whilst allowing ART to keep some face by moving him to the back benches.

The current position on the JV has not changed but it must be very close to closing after over 12 months in discussion.

We still do not have the production figures to show that the GGS is working and that it will put production on an inclining curve after all this time and money spent.

I am positive about the future of COPL but i am not blind to the fact that PI's keep getting diluted which results in a smaller piece of what we hope to be a big pie.

The drills would still have to be RNS'd.