Member Info for Unnd

Some posters appear to be suffering from positive confirmation bias in every RNS that they read.

In simple terms today's RNS was notification that the Bondholders and the Senior Lender have taken control of the Company due to COPL nearly running out of cash yet again due to incompetent financial management.

Yes the BH have put the Company on a more secure financial footing for the next 6 months but it is at the cost of another 70m shares and future dilution due to the reduction in the conversion price of all the existing bonds from 6.75p to 4p.

The BH has stopped the gravy train for Art and Ryan whilst allowing ART to keep some face by moving him to the back benches.

The current position on the JV has not changed but it must be very close to closing after over 12 months in discussion.

We still do not have the production figures to show that the GGS is working and that it will put production on an inclining curve after all this time and money spent.

I am positive about the future of COPL but i am not blind to the fact that PI's keep getting diluted which results in a smaller piece of what we hope to be a big pie.

The drills would still have to be RNS'd.

IMHO we have not drilled any confidential wells - they are in the pipeline for future drilling (excuse the pun).

If drilled they would have to be RNS'd irrespective of a NDA.

The NDA only covers the name of the JVP and the details of the discussions.

That apart COPL do not have the funds to drill at this stage.

Fastfood - the principle amount raised in Bonds was $14.8m but COPL only received 80% = $11.8m

Sorry correction 05/09 should read 05/08.

Shouston/F1 Driver - totally agree with your posts.

I totally despair at COPL's PR.

COPL should have issued an RNS around 05/09 like previous months to state that the GGS had been completed on time and to budget. A production update for July should then have been included to get that out of the way as it is unlikely to have increased much.

I am sure we would have had a more positive sentiment going forward from then on.

The Q2 results is just BAU and nothing exciting.

It would be interesting to know who is doing all the big buys.

We must be due TR1 next week - surely.

Unless they have not finished buying :)

IMHO the JVP will take a 25%- 50% WI in Cole Creek with an option to buy out COPL's interest in CC and BFDU once it is proven that both are commercial discoveries.

The Cole Creek JV will probably include a cash payment to COPL and a free carry on a number of wells.

The JVP may then factor in Carbon Capture in the calculation of the 'buy out' value of Cole Creek and BFDU.

In the meantime we need to get production on an inclining curve for the sanity of shareholders and to increase the SP.

Nelson, if you look at my history and post dated 19/07/23 it clearly details the Bonds at 1.5p

Finwit - it looks like Anavio will now hold their remaining Bonds and therefore that will now stop the death spiral.

The fundamentals of the company should now take over the SP.

It does seem to be counter intuitive for Anavio to convert and sell, They will have there corporate risk assessments and rules to abide by. It is a short term situation for them. It will be up to the MM's to churn through the shares in the market with the aim of ensuring that Anavio maintain the same interest payment on the VWAP.

Fastfood - i am a little confused by the question.

However i would agree that Anavio are pushing Art as much as they can. They have already had an influence by appointing a Director and pushing through cost savings. I would imagine that they are as unhappy at the SP as the rest of us. I am sure that they would prefer the SP to be say 10p+, they can then convert at 6.75p making money on the initial conversion and still get the interest, that would be a win/win for them.

Fastfood - the interest rate on the Bonds increases. Anavio will only convert in my opinion if they see greater returns elsewhere.

Devilboy - why do you have the opinion that they will convert more?

That possibly may be the case for the smaller bondholders but in my opinion Anavio will hold for the time being.

1509 - Copl were paid $160k for each bond.

In return unless paid up in cash the Bondholders currently are entitled to in approximate round figures:-

1. $200k converted at $0.08125 (around 6.5p)

2. $200k converted at the 5 day VWAP

Hope that clarifies.

Once the Conversion Payment shares are washed through this week we should see the SP begin to recover and the fundamentals taking precedence over the Bonds.

It is pure market mechanics due to the Bondholders supplying the market makers with millions of shares to forward sell - supply and demand at its worse. The Bondholders do not care at what price they are sold due to the forward selling pretty much determining the 5 day VWAP when Copl are notified.

There still appears to be some confusion on the effects of the Conversion Payments on the number of shares.

In a genuine attempt to assist i would confirm the following in approximate round numbers.

1. Conversion shares = 2.45m per Bond

2. Conversion Payment = $192k (£152k) per 2027 Bond (10m shares per Bond at 1.5p)

3. Conversion Payment = $242k (£192k) per 2028 Bond (12.8m shares per Bond at 1.5p)

There are 128 Bonds to convert of which Anavio have 108 Bonds.

It is hoped that Anavio now hold after their recent risk assessment and the SP recovers.

With the SP recovery there will be less Conversion Payment shares.

At the current SP there is a possibility of 2B shares which will increase/decrease with the SP.

For balance i have previously calculated the MC at £652m as follows:-

1. Reserves 38m barrels @ £5/b = £190m

2. Resources 993m barrels oip @ 0.50p = £496m

3. Debt (SCF) (£35m)

The above is based on COPL being able to prove that the oil can be got out of the ground at a profit.

The JVP will shortly give us all the value for the OIP which will end the speculation.

£652m divided by 2B shares = 32p share which i would say is conservative.

Hope this helps in these distressing times.

For the record i consider the CEO and the CFO to be financially incompetent.

Fastfood - i do not have numbers but there last conversion was on 29/06 which ties in with the RNS of 30/06 when 18 bonds were converted.

Anavio have 108 Bonds remaining which i would guess they are going to hold more long term.

For the record Anavio have converted 36 Bonds to date.

In my opinion the 72m shares for the 2028 Conversion Payments have been forward sold.

Unfortunately it appears that they are still forward selling the 2027 Conversion payments which should be complete shortly followed by another Conversion Payment RNS this week.

In the short term Copl will have 1B shares and in the long term between 1.5B and 2B shares dependant on when conversion payments are taken and the SP at the time.