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Looks like the MM's are still forward selling the Conversion Payment shares.

Where is the Conversion Payment RNS as surely they must have notified COPL by now.

Also when all sold we should have a TR1 notification for the buyer.

Leew - spot on. We are seeing market mechanics at play due to supply and demand.

It is devoid from the actual value of Copl.

The Market Makers are forward selling the Conversion Payments for the Bonds that Anavio converted last week. It could be up to 200m shares that they have to wash through at a low VWAP. Until it is done we are at this level. Hopefully nearly there and we will see the RNS next week.

What will be interesting is who is buying and will we also see a TR1 next week.

Death by a thousand cuts - aka - dilution by Art & Ryan

Tiburn - a great balanced post, not your usual rose tinted glasses view :)

Nearly 50m shares traded again today.

It looks to me like the Market Makers are forward selling the Conversion Payment shares on the bonds recently converted by Anavio.

It also appears to me that Anavio may have set a minimum price for the sale at or above the VWAP of the conversion.

I am surprised that we have not had a TR1 yet as someone is buying the shares, however they do not need to notify if they are still buying.

Groundhog day - been going on for 9 months

TIL - Thanks for posting

Looking at the percentages at the end of the article 35.17 + 33.77 it leaves 31.06%.

Is the 31.06% for SAVE after 10% is sold to Cameroon?

There does appear to be a trust issue between COPL, Shareholders and the Market.

We need the May production figures on the WOGCC site to back up COPL's statement of 1330 BOPD.

That may then start to instil trust going forward from here.

On 5th June COPL advise that May production was 1330 BOPD.

25 Days later we are still waiting for confirmation on the WOGC site.

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot - if its good news get it confirmed asap.

Edgein - i agree that it is difficult to amke an exact calculation as the interest rate depends on the conversion date.

However the $130,000 stated in the RNS on 24/02/2023 is the minimum Conversion Payment as it was based on the earliest conversion date (lower interest rate and a Bond expiry of 2024. The later the Bondholder converts means that the higher interest rate applies for longer. Unfortuntely the Bonds were extended until 2027/28 and therefore the 'Make Whole' interest has increased hence $130,000 has substantially increased.

Hope this now clarifies.

LLP - in the RNS on 24/02/23 it clearly stated that the Bond Payment was $130,000 per Bond on 2024 Bonds. However since then the Bonds have been extended to 2027 and 2028 which accrues more interest (Make whole means to the original expiry date). The interest rate is reduced if the Bond is converted early. Therefore i have used £140,000 as the Bond payment. If you look back at the RNS's you will see that not all the Bond conversions have had a Bond Payment redeemed. I calculate that there are still 175 Bond payments outstanding. The Bond payment is made at the average SP over the preceeding 5 days which at present is around 2.15p.

However i have used 2.5p as the VWAP in my previous calculations.

It is not exact but gives an approximation. Obviously if the SP rises above 2.5p then the Bondholders will get less shares for the Bond Payment.

Sorry Ed = Edgein

Ed - the $400k was the bond payment on other previously issued bonds and not the one's converted today.

I have shown my calculations for the number of shares that will be in issue once the Bonds are converted of around 2B shares.

For balance so that i am not labelled as a ramper or de-ramper i will calculate the potential market cap of £652m as follows:-

1. Reserves 38m barrels @ £5/b = £190m

2. Resources 993m barrels oip @ 0.50p = £496m

3. Debt (SCF) (£35m)

The above is based on COPL being able to prove that the oil can be got out of the ground at a profit.

The JVP will shortly give us all the value for the OIP which will end the speculation.

£652m divided by 2B shares = 32p share which i would say is conservative.

DBH - the Bonds are converted at 6.75. However the Bondholders are then entitled to a Bond Payment which is, amongst other things, the interest on the bond monies up to the expiry of the Bond in 2027/2028. In simple terms they get 19% on the principle amount ($200k) plus 13%pa interest. If the Bond Payment is not made in Cash then the Bondholder can convert the Bond Payment into shares at the volume weighted average price 5 days prior to the conversion, which is currently around 2.15p.

The exact number of shares that will be in issue once the Bonds are converted depends on the date of conversion. That is because the Bondholder is entitled to interest up to the original expiry date of 2027or 2028 (make whole). However if the Bondholder converts early then the interest rate is reduced by 2% from memory. It is a complex calculation.

Based on current SP the number of shares would be around -

131 Bonds x 2.44m shares per bond = 320m

175 Bond payments outstanding x 5.6m = 980m

In the 24/02/23 RNS the Bond payment was $130,000 per Bond, however due to the extended interest to 2027/2028 i have used $140,000 per Bond and a VWAP of 2.5p.

The shares issued for Bond payments will reduce as the share price increases.

Hope this helps when calculating the future Market Cap and SP.

The Bondholders are converting now to take advantage of the low VWAP on there conversion payments.

The Bonds notified today were forward sold and so do not have a great affect on the SP.

Unfortunately we can shortly (next week?) expect a Conversion payment RNS which will then add in excess of a further 80m shares.

Wev are now heading to between 1.5B and 2b shares being in issue once the Bonda are converted, warrants exercised and 8.5% of the share count issued to the Sl on payment of the SCF.

We have got to hope that production and the JVP adds enough value to offset the number of shares.

Yes apologies can't count. But the point is the same 20m of 200m - not the route cause of the problem.

Guys lets put things into perspective. We have had over 200m shares traded over 2 days. Spreadex have sold 12m. That 12m was to hedge long bets taken out by their customers (PI's like you and me who were stopped out), therefore they were caught up in the shenanigans that we have recently seen.

Wow 5m trades in first 30 mins - what is happening and why no RNS?