Member Info for Unnd

It appears to me that the rampers and de-rampers are as bad as each other as they do not entertain the others point of view.
The SP is currently where it is as the Bondholders were not prepared to pay more than 5.4p (6.75p x 80%). The market always finds a way to get to the placing price.
The facts as i see them both positive and negative are as follows:-
1. Reserves - 38m barrels (to be updated shortly by the RS report)
2. OIP - 993 barrels (no RS report issued so difficult to value. If a JV happens that will value the OIP.
3. Production - 1400 bopd (based on 01/03 RNS. Figures quoted at flaring hearing dismissed for now. Update due end of March).
4. Debt - SCF £40m + 6% of share base (currently 18m shares)
5. Shares in Issue - 316m
6. Warrants - in excess of 120m
7. Convertible Bonds - 181No. ( 103 Anavio: 10 Others: 68 Anavio/New Investor)
The Bondholders will eventually convert, any time between now and 2018, as it is at their option and not COPL (why would they not convert at 6.75p if the SP is in excess of say 10P - free money for them).
The number of shares for conversion are 181 x 2.448m = 443m shares.
If the Bondholders take the conversion payment in shares then the number of additional shares is 181 x 1.57m (based on conversion payment RNS on 24/02) = 284m shares.
Therefore the potential number of shares = 316 +18 + 120 + 443 + 284 = 1.18Billion shares.
I do hope that COPL do not draw down any more monies from the Bondholders as it is even more dilution.
As an aside the Bondholders pay $156K for each Bond and in return they currently get back the equivalent of $330K.

If an offer is made for COPL now then that offer would have to be divided by 1.18B shares.

To end on a positve if all falls into place i see the SP increasing with production.

The above is not an exact science and therefore i am happy to make any corrections.

Pique991 - the next form of lending will be a drawdown from the principle Bondholder to prevent a default on the Senior Credit Facility (SCF) by 22/03/23. Copl are required under the SCF to maintain an average bank balance of $2.5m to prevent default.
I imagine that the market is waiting to see the terms of that drawdown and the affect on the conversion rate of the existing bonds.
Following the above i expect an RBL will be entered into following the issue of the updated reserves report and the 2022 year end financial results towards the end of March.
The RBL will have to include $15m to cover the next 12months costs which will enable the going concern statement to be withdrawn.

Smishman - i expect that they are discussing the conversion price of the Bonds given that the sp has dropped from 16p to 5.5p since the last issue of Bonds

It stated in the RNS on 01/02/23 and in the Prospectus -
'The Company is also actively negotiating and intends to issue additional 2025 Bonds and warrants pursuant to a second tranche of the Winter Bond Financing (announced 3 January 2023), which is expected to close in February 2023 to support its near-term capital requirements for the Company and its affiliate, COPL America.'
Why can't COPL ever do what they say in the timelines that they set themselves. So frustrating for all.

Correction 104 Bonds

Dougb - Anavio then added a further 20 bonds under the tap facility giving them 106 Bonds.

Tiburn - COPL do not receive any monies from the conversion. it is the Bondholders who recieve shares only.

Doug/SteveV - you are both correct in that Copl can buy back the Bonds if the Bondholders do not exercise their rights under the conversion clause. The Converible Bonds are stacked against Copl and the Bondholders hold all the cards.

Steve V - Copl cannot simply buy back the Bonds as there is a conversion clause which gives the Bondholders the right to convert up to 3 days prior to the term of the Bond.

Houston - In essence the TG group believe Anvio are securing this company for somebody else much larger.
If that is correct then Anvio have the opportunity to lower the strike price on the next drawdown on the Tap facility so that they can get a bigger piece of COPL - we shall see shortly.

Tiburn - i do not understand your question. The draw down in my humble opinion will be as previous circa $4m ($3.2 to Copl). If Art manages to get the bondholders to hold the conversion price at 13p then the SP will rerate to that figure. I think it is more likely that it will be between 7p and 13p and the SP will rerate accordingly. Obviously there will be further dilution. An RBL and/or a JV will only follow once COPL is on a more stable footing as production increases.

DBH1956 - please read the Convertible bond document. There is an anti dilution clause. Art will be hard pressed to get them to stay at the existing conversion price of 13p.

The next big news will be the draw down on the Tap facility which will mean the issue of more convertible bonds. The effect on the SP will be dependant on the conversion price. All remaining bonds will revert to the new strike price.

The next news is likely to be the drawdown on the tap facility and therefore the issue of further convertible bonds. The effect on the SP will be the conversion price of the bonds which will reset the strike price of all remaining bonds. In my opinion a JV or RBL will not be entered into until COPL is on a more secure financial footing around April/May.

The first news should be the recompletion of well 11-27 which was to be done by year end 2022.
Presumably it was delayed due to the awful weather in December but must be imminent now.

I guess we all now appreciate the effects that the conversion of the Bonds has on the SP - rightly or wrongly.
Lets hope the remaining minor Bond holders are happy to sit it out collecting their 13% interest before they convert in 2024/25.
In the meantime COPL needs to fulfil its promises and its 2022 Strategic Goals :
1. Substantially increase production
2. Sign an RBL on better terms than the current SCF
3. Commence construction of the high pressure gas gathering system at BFSU ( that was the reason for the additional funding as mentioned in the recent update
4. Recomplete the first well at Cole Creek Frontier 2 to enable reserves to be booked ( as stated in the update by year end 2022)
5. Continue discussions with a large oil company on the appraisal and development of BFDU.
Once progress on the above is seen by the market then the SP will increase and stabilise.

Judging by the number of sells today i would imagine that the drop in SP can only be down to non cornerstone bond holders converting following the bond reset on 26/12/22 and the further dilution noted in the earlier RNS.
Until we have an increase in production or positive news on the RBL or JV this will happen each time a conversion takes place or further convertible Bonds are issued.

Unfortunately it is like catching a falling knife at the moment.
A similar drop happened yesterday around 2.30pm

The silence from SAVE is deafening - wtf is going on.
I wish I sold at 40p
I wish I sold at 35p
I wish I sold at 30p
I wish I sold at 25p
I wish I sold at ???
Holding this share for 6 years has been like death from a thousand slashes.
AK please let us know that you are still alive.

HarryWh - Thanks for the correction