Member Info for triumph1

By AZN. Results were rushed through due to pressure and being browbeaten from shareholders and other pharma companies releasing results, so are very unclear making it all too easy for US pundits to nitpick. I really love how these media fools suggest that A is better than B because A is 90% and B is 62%. Its so much more complicated than a single headline number and many don't understand this. There is still tons of data to analyse.

The way US protectionism has been and the FDA attitude towards AZN has been during the trials, it will come as no surprise that the US will not approve the AZN vaccine for use.

Perhaps vanv, although I did buy a lot of cyclicals at the bottom which have seen a strong recovery so I am not completely against risk and frequently go against the flow. I admire your optimism that covid19 is only the small fix and novacyte are the company to implement the bigger fix, but I just cant see how anyone could make that call yet based on a meaningful time scale re company performance.

But the argument i make that NCYT cannot be valued at a significant premium to contract face value already secured remains valid, even more so as governments and health services may think twice before placing massive testing orders when a vaccine is around the corner, so future contracts which looked a certainty a couple of weeks back are simply no longer certain, so will obviously at present trade at a discount until an announcement is made for good or for bad.

It's all well and good doing research on the company, but some need to look at the bigger picture as the company is not at a stage to be in control of it's own destiny. It has not reached that critical mass, and the probability of it ever reaching has reduced.

Sorry vanv, but this has been weak ever since I suggested the party was over at 1200. Artificial constructs such as director buys never have a lasting impact on shareprices. A lasting impact vaccine could however.

I'm just talking in terms of aim mechanics and broad stroke fundamentals. The company may be great and have a fantastic team; not disputing this (in the last 9 months). But the landscape is changing and the probability of novacyte adapting was small to begin with....even smaller now with a narrower window to "make hay" as dusk has come a whole lot quicker than most expected....even you dare I say.

Why is everyone hanging on broker estimates. They are not exactly impartial. Most brokers have ridiculous targets for aim shares, some several hundred percent away from the actual price. For aim companies, they mean jack.

And those thinking this deserves a p/e rating is just ridiculous. 9 months of revenue deserves a pe of 25 or 30??? Crazy. Bioventix are in a different league in terms of track record of delivering consistently before covid. The SP pre covid speaks volumes. Bioventix have earned their p/e rating. Novacyte have not.

The sp will continue to gap up/down if and when contracts come along and are based almost purely on cash value of the contracts....like they should be. What savvy investor would pay for a p/e rating when they havent even traded for a year (relatively speaking)??? A very daft one.

As sentiment towards vaccines bringing everything back to normal continue to be strong. Who knows if those hopes will materialise, but is weighing big on the huge valuation which is almost entirely based on future "potential" earnings, potential being the operative word upon which there is absolutely no guarantee of materialising. So all this talk of 1bn revenues is pure bluster and should be taken with a huge dose of salt.

More downside once vaccines approved by US regulator, more downside if vaccines actually do work, more downside when governments realise they dont need the massive orders of tests any longer and are replaced with massive orders of vaccines.

Basically telling her to get her facts right before she speaks. She has just been made to look a right knoob.

https://www.drapersonline.com/news/boohoo-hits-back-at-leicester-mp

That depends on the magnitude and how discounted the RI is. Just a guide, IAG got discounted 35.9% from TERP (theoretical ex rights price) and RR got discounted more. I can imagine CINE RI at an even deeper discount, perhaps 50% TERP?

Then you have to wonder how much they will raise. Mcap is about £600m now, and it looks like they realistically need to raise well over £1bn to begin to put a dent into that massive debt pile. lets use the example that they will raise 1.2bn and an approx 50% TERP from today's price (so 22p), around 6.88bn new shares @ 17.4p would be issued which would result in an approx 82% dilution (unless full rights are taken up). You would expect the SP to settle at 22p (TERP price).

Basic calculation, but gives you a rough idea of what to expect. Each CINE investor should definitely keep powder dry for an inevitable RI. It would be a travesty for current SH if a private placing via "accelerated order book" occurred as SH would not have access to the deeply discounted stock. I doubt they would do that though.

Cine wont be going into liquidation or cease to exist. The landlords have little choice with CINE under a CVA; basically reduce the rents or get diddly squat as lets just say there wont be a queue of businesses wanting to rent out massive, usually out of town units with the added cost of the landlord refurbishing as cinemas are very bespoke. 90% of landlords will have no choice but to lower the rents or face the axe themselves, the other 10% will play hard ball which will result in their units being empty for years.....very foolish.

However renegotiating rental terms wont be enough to help reduce the massive debt burden and the debt markets would not touch CINE with a barge pole at any coupon rate, besides the bond covenants would not allow additional debt.

Thus we are left with one option. A huge dilutionary, deeply discounted RI or placing, and bu looking at the debt pile i would suggest at the very least a 80-90% current SH wipe out is on the cards. At least they will survive, but then you have to contend with how fast it can recover from covid. A very very risky play here, with limited upside in the short term. I would wait after the restructuring, then maybe take a position.

that barrel wont have a bottom left.

Any negative SP action after the Nth regurgitation of the same news will be a most welcome opportunity to top up.

No one cares about the limelight seeking backbencher who has a chip on her shoulder regarding boohoo. It's so obvious to see the personal vendetta against the company.

This MP seriously needs to get some perspective in regards to sorting out far bigger social problems in leicester instead of attacking the only source of income and work for the area. Quite laughable really. The IIs, in particular SLA must be laughing as they subtly load back up under the radar.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13215252/mums-disgust-ocado-bags-urine/

This tickled me. I have a warped sense of humour

MAB looking fully priced now for the foreseeable. I cant imagine why anyone would want to buy this share so high now. If I were the CEO, whilst the stock is much higher I would do a placing to bolster the balance sheet and take a chunk out of that debt to guarantee survival. It would be the smart thing to do right now.

MAB are still bleeding cash, currently zero revenue, divesting left right and centre, threat of lockdowns until vaccine has an impact (if and when that is)...yet the SP continues to march up.

Makes zero sense to me.

The excuse of "pre-scheduled 10b5-1 trading plan" is the oldest excuse in the book. A very well trodden and rehearsed excuse used throughout the years. Its no coincidence that vaccine news is released one day before the scheduled trading plan is able to trigger a sale and to ensure trump don't benefit from the announcement. I am convinced the trial results could have been made available prior to Nov 3. Not that i care that trump didn't benefit, but it kind of tells you all you need to know regarding the political games being played with this vaccine.

There is nothing illegal in what he has done, but ethically and given the circumstance very questionable and dubious indeed as this has surely dented confidence in the vaccine. Very foolish and a total misjudgement on his behalf to allow that sale to go through the same day news is released knowing full well the SP would likely cross trigger threshold. No excuses really, a very poorly timed sale.

The only thing REAL investors should take heed of is this;

" In the medium-term, Novacyt expects to leverage its reputation, market intelligence and relationships developed during the COVID-19 response to commercialise new products, as well as expand its presence in respiratory and transplant clinical diagnostics, to continue to meet significant unmet market needs."

The company have more than once tried to ween the market off the fact that growth from covid related products won't last forever, yet they still only dedicate a vague 3 lines regarding what will happen to the company after covid. The truth is that they don't have a clue in the medium term, let alone the long term. Lets not forget, the company does not exactly have a good track record pre covid regarding other products.

Short term covid products are fully priced in now, maybe a spike here or there on news of a big contract win, but thats about it. Despite what the cringe super rampers and their even cringier "reports" say on here, until NCYT come up with a detailed plan for the medium/long term and prove it can work, NCYT will continue to be a one trick pony and valued as such.

Wake up people and stop listening to fools on here.

Hahaha castle you muppet. Continually deramping IAG whilst ramping the bejesus here. Regional public transport has been hit far harder!!
Watch out guys, if this fool says SGC will hit 100p, it's most likely to hit 10p. The SP will undoubtedly fall now.

If only you didnt sell and topped up in the 30s castle ;) if only you followed the pros.

1Agreed WASU...blind luck on IAG; fortunately i was holding when vaccine news released. I was not so lucky elsewhere such as hospitality (MAB, JDW) but I held a few stocks solidly and been paid handsomely.

Trading is not my usual strategy, but this year it has been the only way to keep your head above water. Profits have evaporated faster than they have came, and then some. I certainly am not as foolish to think this is the end of covid and another down wave could be had once the economic damage is laid bare for all to see, but it is the beginning of the end and and the days of any down waves are surely numbered and will be brought heavily into.

Errr you misunderstood 3300. This has nothing to do with new technology and everything to do with the prestige of being the first to release a vaccine, regardless of the underlying technology. The US obviously wanted a US company to be first, so presidente trump can take the credit. AZN was robbed of first place thanks to the FDA dragging their feet re trial resumption which took over a month, even though EU, japan and many other nations resumed trials within a week.

However Trump failed to realise US pharma allegiances....Its also no coincidence either that this news was released after the US election. We all know about pfizer's contribution to the democrats.

AZN trial delay tactics clearly worked and allowed pfizer to pull ahead.

To think that this vaccine is not the beginning of end of this terrible virus. Some on here try to cling onto the hope that this virus will stay, mutate ect...but science will prevail.

The money is moving back to cyclicals...NCYT has had its day and done well but like all good things, it must come to an end.

Indeed. as far as i am concerned, very little changed here. Happy to continue to stake build at these levels

The funniest thing is; his beloved INFA has not budged....pure and utter sour grapes. Give up WAM...you sound like your best pal trump, admit you were wrong and bow down to my superior skills.

I told you many times to follow the pros....should have taken the advice ;)