Member Info for triumph1

if the bottom of 300p surprised you, you are a poor trader. The upward channel support which coincided with MAs at 302 and 301 could not be more obvious. A massive buy point and was always going to bounce. Got a load more at 299.9p

I think there has been some decent discussion on this board recently around the topshop acquisition and what it would mean for the company. Also we know in H2 the company "broken EVERY record as a business" as quoted by Mr Kamani the founder on twitter and was subsequently removed. Here is that link again for those who missed it (link cache)

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:xrqP-zAt1DoJ:https://www.trendsmap.com/twitter/tweet/1332457818847211520+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk&client=firefox-b-d

The trouble makers are very easy to spot; 99% of people can clearly see who they are and their intentions. The 1% who don't will only have a few hundred quid to invest anyway....makes a drop in an ocean look big.

bound to hit support at 300. i have averaged up and continue to stake build at each support.

Eyes firmly on the prize. Blowout H2 + Topshop acquisition = Huge SP growth.

The rest is just noise

Well done for you guys that loaded up at 1p ;)

Big profits made!

At 300p which it has bounced off a few times now. A dip to 300p and buyers will make this bounce offthe channel.

I think many are overestimating Mike Ashleys potential to make a serious bid for Arcadia assets. He is clearly interested in the brand despite him saying he wasn't, and his ploy the other week to attempt to loan arcadia £50m, watch it fail and scoop up the brands which would have been used as collateral has backfired so he wont be getting them on the cheap! He is already thinly spread with HoF, debenhams in terms of retail space already and would have to put his hands in his pockets big time to get Arcadia brands considering the competition. He usually goes for ultra distressed companies though and does not like paying out. He obviously has the financial clout to, but fighting a bidding war is not his style evidenced by him trying to go through the backdoor route via a cheeky £50m loan.

Hut group are in the scattershot e-commerce consumer goods sector which is very broad in nature so i don't think lack of experience in the clothes business would be the problem, but it would be a very risky bet for them and SH appetite is questionable. They have the financial clout to put in a serious bid however.

One thing is for sure; Boohoo could do great things with Topshop and give the likes of Zara a run for their money. They are massive contenders and raised money back in may specifically for Arcadia assets. Topshop would be a gear change in terms of growth for Boohoo. I don't think they will get it on the cheap though as the administrators will want to keep the brands together as much as possible and bids that keep the company whole will get preferential treatment.

My entire PF cash holding at today's auction UC of 853p. Better buying shares here than holding cash until another opportunity arises.

Showing fantastic strength after the funny drop last week. Things will get very interesting around the £15 mark. There will be a real bull vs bear scrap at that level.

And age is absolutely no guarantee of "wisdom". I'll take my chances with empirical scientific knowledge and fact as opposed to the vague and relative constructs of wisdom.

Either way, NCYT is coming to a crucial juncture technically. Its either going to break down or take a leg higher. This is becoming a binary bet and i don't gamble. Phase 2 NHS trigger will mean a step up. Phase 2 NHS fail would mean total annihilation of SP.

Interesting post TD, but it is the growth rate that on the surface looks sluggish. But i am starting to wrap my head around the differences in PS vs non-PS, and understanding the clientele is key in understanding the lack of growth compared to zoom for example.

Mass market clientele are totally different from the much more bespoke clientele their core PS operates in. I am assuming we will see a lag in pipeline conversions due to this type of clientele needing to run much more thorough tests on the product. This would explain FY20 perceived sluggishness vs FY19.

As you say TD, i just hope this theory can be validated with a decent contract win and can make up for loss in non-PS. I am slowly convincing myself to take a position, but really want to see some conversions first in this pipeline. I would pay a higher price if a contract win landed, but would be worth it as this would then look very cheap.

I agree with what you are saying too masqood regarding the pipeline and most of that report looks to be priced in now. Don't get me wrong, the company has some decent points such as the massive debt reduction and potential new contracts which makes it worth something.

However with the market being forward looking in nature, today's revenue is irrelevant and the SP must be based on next years outlook which forecasts a large growth deceleration. However, if the company can begin to convert their pipeline and announce contract wins, then this forecast will begin to look outdated and the SP will readjust accordingly.

Until then, LOOP will continue to tread water.

err maqsood you may want to take another look. The 43% revenue increase was comparing H1 2019 to H1 2020. Hardly the bigger picture is it. Lets put that into context...

H1 2018 clocked 39% growth in revenue compared to H1 2017
H1 2019 clocked 86% growth in revenue compared to H2 2018
H1 2020 clocked 43% growth in revenue compared to H2 2019

If you look at context, the growth seen even in H1 is at best mehhh. The thing that drove the SP up was the bottom line EPS which increased massively. However even this is biased and partly a one off as the company stated that there was a large increase in gross margin, but a "modest decrease in staff and overhead expenses" which are one off events and are not associated with organic EPS growth from top line growth.

More concerning is H2, which historically is usually the better year. If we take FY 2020 revenue of 50m - 52.5m as expected, so H2 2020 revenue will be £18.1m - £20.6m. Taking the best case of £20.6m revenue, this is a H2 YoY increase of a meager 2.2%. Worst case of £50m FY 2020 revenue will be a drop of 11.2% revenue! This is the slowest revenue growth for H2 since the company listed.

Even worse, YoY revenue of £50m - £52.5m gives a revenue growth YoY of just 17.6%-23.5%, the slowest YoY growth since the company listed, and quite unacceptable after the year we have had! Even taking into consideration the best case revenue of £52.5m, the revenue growth rate compared with FY19 vs FY18 which was 24% will drop 0.5%, or 50BPS.

The worst is the company forward statement which implies growth collapse.

There are some bright spots which is the debt reduction which makes the company more valuable. But until this pipeline can be materialized, that really is just about it. I have pointed out before that because of the sector they operate in, it may be a harder sale thus more of a slow burner in terms of turnaround as companies need to trial, expect pro bono periods ect which is unlike zoom which is mass market, but this is all speculation. The facts we have currently look bad and point to sluggish growth, seriously lagging other sector participants like zoom. But one thing is for sure, never mind cold water that report has just poured liquid helium over what was considered a scolding hot stock in H1.

But that last report left many perplexed, confused and disappointed and am not in the slightest surprised to see this continue to fall.

A very puzzling H2 and an even more puzzling outlook which estimates revenue decline by 32%. Yes, they have got a good pipeline in place, but then why base future sales on a silly metric such as an ARR which does not take into consideration sector outlook or new contract wins. It would have been better giving no forward guidance at all like many other companies. Either they are very stupid, don't believe they will make any new acquisitions or orchestrated this drop by using such a silly forward looking metric.

If you allow the market to speculate, worst case scenario will always be priced. Especially on a growth company. 18% YoY growth simply is not good enough for the year we have had, H2 was a complete shambles and a FY21 revenue drop estimate of 32% is taking the p155.

Now you will understand why zoom has a 32x sales multiple, and why 1x multiple here is still too expensive.

But I don't understand the logic in saying that if boohoo were to keep wholesale side of any acquisition, then we would no longer command a higher valuation multiple. High multiples are earned simply by higher growth revenue. I don't think the market distinguishes so much the business model regarding how growth occurs, whether operating on an efficient scalable platform, or physical brute force growth in revenue via other means. As long as growth is there, the company will have a higher multiple.

I as a growth investor see little difference in growth multiple regarding how "quality" the growth is. Personally, i dont care whether you have a nice efficient fancy scalable platform vs growth through dirty brute force, higher sales via any means, acquisitions and breaking into new geographies, as long as the company is growing revenues consistently year on year. Growth sustainability is a more interesting concept (better term than "growth revenue quality") and questioning which business model has the better ability to maintain high growth rates. I agree that the scalable platform is more sustainable, but a wholesale business on the side for a brand that already has an established network would add a whole new facet that would compliment the business and would just be another way for boohoo to grow revenue.

Boohoo have no intentions of getting into the wholesale business, but if one landed at their doorstep handed on a platter in the form of Topshop, they would be crazy to dismantle any efficient wholesale network. Not in a million years would they refuse the opportunity to further increase revenue (regardless of revenue "quality"), further grow into the multiple in terms of bottom line EPS, further diversify and further expand into new geographies.

Boohoo equity story is quite simply, growth! Grow the top line via any means at their disposal, as efficient as possible and use that EPS to fuel the growth engine. A bigger EPS would mean bigger growth for their (IMO) far more sustainable online business. It worked pretty well for Amazon.

You will most likely be the first to exit stage left at 8am along with 90% of the others who tell the noobs to hold. The more you try to reassure people to "hold hold hold", the worse it sounds and will more likely "sell, sell, sell" come 8am. All this theatrics and emotion over one sensationalist, slightly overzealous headline? Have you guys never met Mr press? You want to try holding BOO for the last 4 months; this is nothing compared to the media onslaught there! Some of the sheep on here need to grow thicker fur and realise it is pointless whining about media and political agendas. These things will never change and are known unknowns in every investment.

Most have come to terms with the fact that this will most likely tank in the morning, caused by traders panicking or trying their luck in picking up a few extra shares. Its best to try and asses the damage once the dust settles, i.e. could this news lead to a decrease in probability of phase 2 being triggered, or is it all just fake news? After all, this share is hypersensitive on news regarding phase 2 of the NHS contract. Any smoke regarding the potential for phase 2 not going ahead will cause a fire. The worst thing you can do is be in total denial regarding the last 3 weeks and the reduction in probability of phase 2 not being triggered.

What a commotion this evening. The twatter crew on a warpath with an NHS procurement guy and the usual rampers desperately rubbishing the independent article. I must admit, the headline is a bit sensationalist and is somewhat regurgitated which us BOO holders have had to put up with for months now, but other than that why is it fake news RE the logistical, practical, accuracy and cost issues with the Primerdesign units that have been outlined by the hospitals?

Looks like there will be a review due to pressure from govt opposition, and based on that review the government will decide whether to trigger phase 2 based on their comment “We will continue to analyse and determine the best clinical use for all of our rapid technologies, including Primerdesign, and will deploy these tests across the NHS in line with the latest findings.”

To dismiss the contents as "fake news" is idiotic. There is no smoke without fire, and like it or not it has added yet another element of risk for SH here re renewal of NHS contract which i have been warning about for weeks, and govt spending becoming increasingly in the limelight and questionable. We all know how sensitive NCYT is to these sorts of news releases as the SH base is full of novice traders/retail investors that will get spooked by this, so expect a retrace to last low of 550p with note that there is a big gap to fill from 450-550p.

You cant help but think NCYT will now be priced as if the NHS contract extension will not be triggered, so a SP implosion will come as no surprise.

I agree lion and caravan boy. They did say "no lower than £50m", so whatever that means exactly is hard to tell. I am guessing anywhere between £50m-£52.5m as they did say "moderately below market expectations". Panmure Gordon penciled in the £55m revenue estimate for FY20 which was thought of as quite conservative at the time as this didn't account for Microsoft Teams direct routing sales, which i would have thought would have pushed FY20 closer to £60m.

Caravanboy is right in saying that the drop in earnings expectation mathematically doesn't add up, and a sector with just a 14% weighting really cannot account for such a drop. Even if that sector that makes up 14% of company revenue brought in zero revenue for H2, revenues still should have been higher than £18.1m so the magnitude of the SP drop can come as no surprise as there has to be something else afoot. Considering the market they are in and other companies like Zoom, YoY revenue growth of 17.6% - 23.5% really is not anything to shout home about, and in fact is less than the growth of 24% managed in FY19 compared to FY18! Perhaps because they operate in a niche which is far more formal than zoom, initial uptake is slower as clients are more thorough in procurement thus sales will lag compared to Zoom which is mass market. They have built a decent pipeline, but i guess we will just have to wait and see how/if they convert this.

But there are still many positives, such as a massive reduction in debt position to sub £3m and as Lion said there are some decent contracts secured and a very good looking pipeline. A good look at the full year results will tell us more whether this is simply a mere blip. But certainly will keep an eye on this one.

Certainly food for thought but to me, worth no more than a punt. I for one am very confused with the sudden deterioration of H2 2020. For example, in FY19, the revenue split was 48% H1 and 52% H2. This year FY20, 63.8% H1, 36.2% H2. What happened???

The months march to July were obviously excellent, revenue was £31.9m H1. However to say that full year will be just £50m represents a material slowdown, far beyond the non-PS sector churn which makes up just 14% of revenue. To report just £18.1m for H2 FY20 which is a 10% reduction in H2 FY19 is very disappointing! H2 is usually the stronger half, so what on earth happened?

For the company to tell us that this is purely down to a sector that makes up just 14% of revenue is rubbish. There has obviously been a massive slowdown across the board.

Boohoo were waiting for this as the writing was on the wall for Arcadia back in April. I strongly believe Topshop was precisely the reason why the £200m placing was done in may. No way will they let the likes of Mike Ashley outbid them.

Topshop could be huge for boohoo, next level stuff if they can bring it back to life.

Fantastic insider snippet there. The tweet is genuine and legit, it can still be reviewed on google cache. That should give the SP a boost on Monday!

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:xrqP-zAt1DoJ:https://www.trendsmap.com/twitter/tweet/1332457818847211520+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk&client=firefox-b-d