Member Info for TrekMadone

Https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/24/eu-spends-more-russian-oil-gas-than-financial-aid-ukraine-report?utm_term=67bc23bc0130fea90bb3de313a2eaa8e&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

Trek

Fabulous update with divestment at a premium and to secure 39m at a fixed 4.1% shows the reality of the fitch rating!

I will continue to add here at this insane discount!

Usual caveats

Trek

“ Stocks sold off on Friday as new U.S. data sparked fear among investors over the state of the U.S. economy, leading them in a search for safer assets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost around 687 points, or 1.5%. The 30-stock Dow has tumbled more than 2% over the past two days. The S&P 500 traded 1.4% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.6%.”

CNN….

Not surprised but will probably bring cheap London down with it!

I mean my income pf of what I consider well crafted investments at this juncture is yielding now well over 9.5%!

Should I cash out and wait for 20%!

It’s bonkers!

Usual caveats

Trek

I got down to 120 and a fraction today after some in and out trades. But yet again it’s gone lower!

Still I will stick to my strategy and work my average from what I think is an oversold position.

I also think (no evidence) that given the sp decline even bad news in the results won’t be as bad as has been accounted by the sp running up to them! A 12% drop in 1 month and 25% drop in 6 months against an insipid Q4 update in which they still raised the dividend feels like contagion rather than reality!

I started here at 129 average so not to bad but then … why did I buy at 129 and bring this work upon myself! Doh!

But not worried a few well timed trades will bag a solid +10% yield increasing with inflation! What a prize!

Usual caveats

Trek

JC that’s a very reasonable post. I totally agree with your sentiment.

It’s a shame as these BB’s and associated blogs are intended to help each other and not ridicule. Share ideas long and short, sell or buy. Challenge one another respectfully. Post links and data etc.

OB knows that more than anyone and has let his guard down imo!

Not everyone can endlessly average down or trade or be fortunate enough have a huge pf that can carry losses.

I am pretty confident that once the placing clears the SP will trawl back up.

It will though likely be 6 months given the dilution and other adjustments but I don’t see the yield changing. Rusty has nailed his colours to that and the ii’s probably said it was a condition or else!

So for those underwater and not in a position to trade I would close my eyes, enjoy the gas macro and take the divi’s. The sp on an asset basis even if it goes lower from here should climb back to £14 and I think £15 is still likely.

GL to you and all!

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Trek

AIC is a good gauge of sentiment being on its floor so at last we have new entrants!. But really do PI’s that have sought out the likes of ENRG need to pay them?

I get the risk balance but would rather be accountable for my own decisions.

E.g I sliced a few well performing stocks today to crystallise profit and pick up more insanely valued IT’s to substantially increase my yield and spread risk.

Now I am getting 9.8% in the pf across 22 stocks! These types of vehicles aren’t that dynamic but I appreciate it suits those with less time.

GL

Usual caveats

Trek

Not the vol here of prev days but sp moving up- may head back to 45p range as insti’s make more noise!

Trek

Started to build here. Good update and divi increase.

Trek

This is from Reuters on US wind. Here in Texas reality is different from current Trump sentiment…

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/texas-power-system-set-new-clean-milestone-winds-pick-up-maguire-2025-02-20/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Power-Up&utm_term=022025&lctg=65d3a4d7962245101d037748

Sentiment can change in a ‘breath’

Trek

JC - I hold HEX from 10.4p average. I posted the tip here after the IPO and gave it to GG as a free tip to help him make some money. But unfortunately he couldn’t see through his hubris and vitriol at being such a bad loser!

I have made a packet there, and offered to share with him!

I was one of the early posters on the BB. I only have a percentage of profit in there now having exited most in the high 20’s and used the winnings to build some income.

But yes the placing churn there is likely coming to an end now and the SP is due another run.

Any investors that took profits should consider buying back in now.

Timing is everything!

GL

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Trek

For those that hold the prospectus is out. I highly recommend reading section 3 which is very well set out explaining the terms of all the significant contracts and the ABS notes. Not seen all that data in one place before.

Trek

Hi Worya,

I echo JC, this is no longer for your average PI’s and I mean that respectfully. It’s really a traders stock now and the price points move very quickly.

There are much safer plays with huge NAV discounts and outstanding well covered yields in the investment trust/REIT and ETF sectors atm.

I would recommend looking there and spreading across a few. E.g SUPR is one I hold it has 100% letting to major supermarkets. The sp is down as bond yields (like here) have taken money away. Their income is also tied to site sales volumes = tied to consumer spending. But they have Lidl as well as Tesco on their books. The rents are secure and divi safe.

There’s also plenty in healthcare, I have a big position for me in AGR, just received a bid as so cheap but there are others in the sector like CRT.

Then you have renewables, out of favour following Trump. But if you dig into the books you can find ones that don’t depend on subs and don’t have wind like SEIT which has a diverse pf and growth. Yields 12% absolutely crazy!

I could go on but you get the gist. There are easier ways to make coin than DEC. That’s not saying DEC is a bad investment it’s just very volatile and needs at least another year now for Maverick to start to bed in! And that’s even with it being imo a good long term deal!

Usual caveats

Trek

Yes 27th is what’s on google finance as well. I am wondering if some money is coming off in advance of results.

Historically results days haven't been good for many uk stocks.

I may have another go a trading my average here. Down 22% over 6 months, indicative sells ahead of indicative buys and no BB and bond yields easing slower is driving poor sentiment!

But with an increasing well covered divi and hedges it should change at some point.

Still shouldn’t fight the market just try and make some nibbles! I am at 125 average atm so still have a chance to improve on that and stay in touch.

Usual caveats

Trek

Terry,

I wish you sold the lot as well. Hindsight eh! Hate seeing fellow PI’s fleeced!

Unfortunately these placings have to be funded before they are announced. So the brokers and ii’s know exactly what’s about to happen and at what price.

I think it’s insider dealing but the market can’t really work any other way. Part of that process is they could coincidentally hedge, sell or short their 850k shares and buy them back at 14.50 so they always make money.

It’s the same with CLN’s, the price is agreed upfront, the announcements come afterwards. Stock is often hedged/forward sold usually into a rampy RNS!

Or for that matter an accelerated book build, how on earth do they open and close it in 24 hours if the money isn’t already there. And for the money to be there they need to know that they won’t loose any by supporting the bookbuild..

Insider rules seem to apply for circumstances outside of cash calls of any sort else they will never get off the ground.

The PI’s are not only up against the house but also a loaded deck as well!

It’s really not easy making money in this space and when you look at the majority of sp charts most companies are down over 5 and 10 years. It’s just a few that are propping up the fts100 and the 350 is even more dire! As for aim it’s gone backwards!

Time in the market and not time the market is Bllx. Timing is everything!

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Trek

These option prices indicate to me that they are expecting a divestment. About time!

With zero income and burning cash they need to do that for working capital and to realise pf gains. Another placing will make 4p a pipedream!

Gotta bank some gains in this market. Then the market will have some idea what some of the assets really are worth in cash terms rather than just on an excel!

Usual caveats

Trek

This placing was telegraphed. We didn’t even get the price till later. The drop happened before the RNS!

The insti’s probably forward sold stock and or took short cover out ahead of the placing.

That’s why you will imo see it trade below the offer price coz they will still make money and PI’s will think 11.50 is the floor and get sucked in.

Wait for lower imo and buy back in tranches selling any profit and recycle. If you miss your price let it go. Just use the opportunity to get your average down if you hold.

But I wouldn’t be tempted now until early 11’s, 10.50 and early 10’s and any numbers in between if you have the ammo! But if you are intent on staying in do sell and recycle to work your average or let it go!

Not advice just sharing experience.

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Trek

Looks like an insti selling here - big slices as soon as there is liquidity.

Either sell and take a chance to buy cheaper, wait for the bounce to establish or ignore.

I sold 60% at 114 and bought back when (I thought) 110 held at 111, got it wrong!

The joys of a PI!

Can’t get em all right!

Usual caveats

Trek

GLG added

Trek

Https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/feb/19/topoconductor-chip-quantum-computing-topological-qubits-microsoft?utm_term=67b6e9f6a0437d43d93aa9d1a47e0a18&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

Big mobile phones are back… like the 80’s! lol!

Perhaps this is why Trump is pulling the strings for big tech…. The future is QC - and crack the BTC codes! lol!

Trek

They are the deep state tro…. Setting up what they told the world already existed.

A select few that will control the US soon with disinformation, chaos and indoctrination!

It’s happening in front of our very eyes!

I see Trump has now just revoked the conjestion charge in NYC - the smog wasn’t real!

Trek