Member Info for TrekMadone

Big number of trades today +2300 before 9am!

Trek

Lol! There are thousands of single trades. I have seen 12 or more single trades in a row on some stocks. It’s nothing to do with getting a dozen RNS’s!

Single trades and small volume trades are often price discovery trades used by MM’s.

Price discovery is part of mm schemes to generate liquidity 

Definition: market making incentive schemes that the Exchange is mandated to offer under Article 48(2)(b) of MiFID and Article 1 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/578



Page 58 covers it and also ALGO trades.



https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/rules-lse.pdf

They are then posted on the MiFID2 MM agmt tab...



https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/20200401%20MIT%20&%20TE%20Parameters%20version%207.2.xls

Hope that helps.

It’s the same on the NASDAQ where this deep dive pretty much concluded the same.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378426616302035

Usual caveats

Trek

Here’s a predictor.

https://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

I hold NESF as well. Its yield is coverred 1.3x and increases yoy. Now 12.6%!

Lots of income plays are having to contest with gilt yields. 10 year going up and 30 year is highest since 1998! So why risk equity when the govt ‘will’ pay income. But remember yields are inverse to price!

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/government-bond-yield

I am averaging back in here below 100p

Usual caveats

Trek

OB on Mast - I thought as much!

Conclusion

How is it that people are spending money buying shares for a company valued at £20m for a business where the creditors effectively owns all the assets, and where the actual performance of its only 100%-owned site is well below my estimate of its profitability.

Where my best estimate of its profitability put this on a future Price Earnings P/E of 548X!

A business where, if you are lucky, then the warrant holders will dilute you so that the creditors don’t own all the assets and instead you lucky shareholder will instead own 4.6p of assets for a share you are paying 160p to buy. So you are paying a 3,378% premium to NAV if warrant holders dilute you fully.

That is truly masterful, but not for the buyer. I repeat my view: SELL.

Regards

The Oak Bloke

https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/1h25-mast-results?r=5c1567&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Trek

Conclusion

How is it that people are spending money buying shares for a company valued at £20m for a business where the creditors effectively owns all the assets, and where the actual performance of its only 100%-owned site is well below my estimate of its profitability.

Where my best estimate of its profitability put this on a future Price Earnings P/E of 548X!

A business where, if you are lucky, then the warrant holders will dilute you so that the creditors don’t own all the assets and instead you lucky shareholder will instead own 4.6p of assets for a share you are paying 160p to buy. So you are paying a 3,378% premium to NAV if warrant holders dilute you fully.

That is truly masterful, but not for the buyer. I repeat my view: SELL.

Regards

The Oak Bloke

https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/1h25-mast-results?r=5c1567&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Trek

Makes little difference to the SP behaviour though. It’s about mcap and volume. Spread here has been dire!

Trek

And my buy at 62 got filled at 61.65! I thought TA wise 60 would be a bouncer. So I set a buy for 62p yesterday allowing for 2p spread. Happy days!

If it goes to 50’s I will have to sell income stock to buy more which I will do albeit reluctantly as I need the income!

Atb

Trek

Wouldn’t rule out a Chinese state backed national grabbing this. They take a much longer view than western governments, US aside, who only see as far as the next elections! A 25year view v a 4 year view!

The Bod won’t be interested in who just the price as long as Malawi agree.

BRES have done well with US backing but this hasn’t met the same criteria. Perhaps a Chinese bid would really set hares running! But with little action imo! I mean can you see the UK plc showing an interest. Can’t even sort out our own energy security and we’re swimming in the stuff!!

Usual caveats

Trek

The insti’s invested here are imo taking a much longer view on having a slice of a new frontier resource!

For sure they want the best price possible but they will unlikely give up a land percentage/resource percentage on this investment just coz the sp has dipped short term and it’s within the longer term trading range!

Usual caveats

Trek

They got 100%. That was a risk in the prospectus. How difficult it was to achieve I have no idea but there are rewards aplenty at 0.5p for the directors!

All part of the AIM game!

The important thing is it should clear the way for the license now as it would have been difficult to sign off with a 25% unknown entity given the regulatory requirements.

So PFS and licence next. Those will be significantly sp catalysts imo. Although I am surprised the market hasn’t clocked the significance of owning 100%!

IPO was 3p. That’s a bag from here just to get back to where we were. Easily achievable imo! Just gotta wait.

Usual caveats

Trek

And more to come! Good set of numbers imo.

Market taking profits?

Trek

Last PDMR 26/6/25….

“…. Joan Plant, Executive VP, sold 220,000 common shares of no par value in the Company to cover taxes related to the vesting of shares granted under the Company’s Restricted Share Unit Plan……”

So as it’s 5 days for non uk and next day for uk I don’t think there has been a director sell. Can’t see they’d make such a humongous oversight! Well ok it has happened before. But the volumes are higher than one director.

I think it’s probably something along the lines of selling placing stock and reaping benefit from shorts or CFD’s. We had a big placing that was well telegraphed to insti’s.

The volumes during August have been higher. Look at value rather than number of trades.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/AMRQ/amaroq-ltd/trade-recap

This is possibly just usual Inst placing shenanigans. It will sort itself out once they have done with their hedging and they will bid it back up again imo with lower averages.

Usual caveats

Trek

It ran up through 120p in rate cut hopes expecting bond yields would come down. Not just UKW but the whole sector.

Now Rachel from accounts has spooked the bond markets yields are going up. 30 years are at highest since 1998!

The market thinks 10 years will now go higher!

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/government-bond-yield

So money is leaving high yield renewables that are inflation sensitive and going to ‘safer’ high yielding gilts.

Had the govt gone ahead with the welfare plans or at least means tested the personal independence allowance then we’d probably be in a better place.

But as it stands the market is unconvinced in the govts fiscal management so yields are higher. And that’s not a pop at Labour. It’s a fact. All parties just as bad imo!

I thought 110 would have held. I sold some at 120 and should have sold the rest at 111 with a view to buying back cheaper.

Not sure now what to do now so holding atm as I like the RPI linked high yield!

Usual caveats

Trek

I saw pow Tro. I sold as got bored waiting!

Trek

You don’t reallly know where the bottom is until there’s a rise backed by volume.

This looks very positive with lots of trades going through now!

Trek

They held with Fgen. I sold Fsfl today while still in profit. Kept Fgen as lower gearing, similar divi. Also I have better price at Fgen.

Will look to buy back here if it goes lower. But I have too many renewables and they don’t seem to be in vogue atm. Also bond yields going back up again. Thanks rach!

Trek

Enjoy with a whiskey!

https://thatstocksguy.substack.com/p/defence-holdings-the-ground-floor?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#media-b1943833-5c61-4f11-a427-f5bbf0599907

For me I am not so sure. This is a small outfit with all the buzzwords looking at a huge challenge. I think they will do well initially but it’s gonna be tough to get in the talent needed!

Good luck guys.

Trek

I use ii avoid! Awful restrictions now and poor service since taken over by Abrdn! HL and AJB also brought in restrictions and don’t trade many stocks now.

Just get a proper account with IG. Most pundits rec them. They have done well with probate, transfers in and you can trade many instruments not enabled on the aforementioned platforms! I am opening an account with them.

Trek

Pure Ice take a long view on some selective resource plays. They are a bit of an unknown. I only came across them as they hold stock in LEX where I also hold.

Trek

Well silly me I thought LNG was ahead of oil then coal but this infographic shows otherwise. China and India must still be burning loads of coal!

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/what-powered-the-world-in-2024/

Trek