RE: Trading Update17 Sep 2025 15:42
I added some at 2.99.
I think the market is expecting a divi cut. As long s AUM and outlook remains positive esp on back of the last narrative re active v passive and cost cutting I am hoping for a bounce.
I still expect rates to come down as jobs are stagnant. That itself should hold back inflation. Productivity will also be poor imo as usual so OBR will be showing a bigger fiscal gap. It’s far from ‘animal instincts’ so no need to keep rates relatively high as more ‘pseudo taxes’ will creep in!
With Trump tariffs we are hardly importing inflation - exports need some help!
Just a poor show the govt kicked the ‘budget can’ to end of November. Just adds to uncertainty.
But once that uncertainty is over first from the results here and then from the budget we could see two good bounces.
Last time LIO, being high beta, lept 89p from the off which afforded some nice profit taking and recycling!
So I expect a 75% divi cut, positive ops news, some cost saving and a return to 3.40 then another lift after the budget taking us back to 380-390 before Christmas. Could be more but tempered expectations! Director buys we’re at 400p ish from memory!
Not too shabby and not too rampy but I agree - more upside than downside from here. So worth a trade esp with sub 300p buys!
Usual caveats
Trek