Member Info for TrekMadone

“Got excited when I seen the RNS ), nothing exciting (”

Well Stewart, imo you miss the point. Often a joint broker allocation or broker change just comes with a note ‘from immediate effect’. They seldom mention the deliberate intent to access capital markets.

This will be a quick shallow drill and if successful a fairly rapid move to production. I reckon they have been further analysing those seeps whilst folk are clearing the tramlines and decided to expand their options. That way if they decide to produce or even sell both positions are strengthened in advance.

Trek

Reminder....currently a $47bn market, expected to grow to $100bn by 2025!

This deal represents significant value for DCTA albeit cash not discussed but if volumes do not manifested then endeth the exclusivity period.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/932406/directa-plus--captures-attention--after-years-of-thorough-research-signing-nextech-batteries-deal-932406.html

Trek

Good find VeganEater...

“Mullen Technologies inks a strategic partnership with NexTech Batteries

Mar. 08, 2021 8:29 AM ETNet Element, Inc. (NETE)By: Khyathi Dalal, SA News Editor

Mullen Technologies, an emerging EV manufacturer, launched a strategic partnership with NexTech Batteries as an EV battery supplier and key partner for battery development and technologies.

In June 2020, Mullen had announced a definitive agreement to merge with Net Element (NASDAQ:NETE) in a stock-for-stock reverse merger.

Mullen plans to produce 100K+ vehicles in the upcoming 5 years utilizing NexTech lithium sulfur (Li-S) pouch format batteries, which are 60% lighter than today's EV's, improving vehicle efficiency and reducing overall energy consumption.

"This technology allows Mullen to potentially be below $90/kWh at a pack level, greatly reducing cost to consumers. The low carbon footprint, high specific energy density and much lower cost to the consumer will make Mullen extremely competitive in this market segment," Mullen CTO Frank McMahon commented.

NETE shares trade 18% higher premarket.”

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3670202-mullen-technologies-inks-a-strategic-partnership-with-nextech-batteries

This follows on from the supply agreement between DCTA and NexTech. Now we know who the EV manufacturer is and it’s for 100k vehicles!

Trek

I seldom post here anymore as have such a cushion. Just to say skipping through the posts.

I get that the market are psd that PW raised when we have so many Crypto assets Hodl’d. Why dilute when there is cash in the bank.

He obviously believes that the asset appreciation will eradicate the dilution near term.

Obviously we don’t know whose right or wrong so a little tug of war until it settles.

Trek

£3

Target Price under review - significantly skewed to upside!

“Distribution agreement with Mountain Horse Solutions

Agreement signed with Mountain Horse Solutions, a US military contracting specialist, for distribution of genedrive’s military pathogen detection assays in the US. Through establishing local representation and contacts in this highly specialised field, genedrive should be able to drive broader uptake of its BioPlex range of products, which were developed to the US Department of Defense (DoD) product specifications. We leave our target price under review, and reiterate that forecasts exclude potential COVID-19 test revenues.

?Newsflow. Distribution agreement with Mountain Horse Solutions for distribution of genedrive’s military pathogen detection assays in the US. Mountain Horse is a military contracting specialist to US Federal, State and Local Government customers.

?Implications. Contracting with the US Government is challenging and time consuming, and through Mountain Horse, genedrive will now have local representation in the country, with identified contacts in this highly specialised field. Ultimately, this should help drive broader product uptake, and eventually provide an opportunity for more rapid order placement and replenishment of products without the need for new contracts to be negotiated.

?Genedrive® BioPlex. The US DoD contracted the company to develop a handheld bio-warfare testing system. This includes a suite of 16 different assays for detection of a range of bio-threats. After an initial development contract worth c.$10m, the agreement has now moved on to a commercial phase, whereby the DoD will purchase the assays that have been developed. The DoD has indicated its intention to enter a new contract in CY 2021, although this has been subject to delays, partly as a result of COVID-19.

?Opportunities. genedrive has shipped its first 96 SARS-CoV-2 Kits to the US as part of its distribution agreement with Beckman Coulter. The company remains in negotiations to sole supply a European Ministry of Health. A Point of Care (POC) SARS-CoV-2 test is expected to launch in CY Q2 2021. The Genedrive® MT-RNR1 test for Antibiotic Induced Hearing Loss (AIHL) is on track to launch in summer 2021.

?Forecasts exclude any revenues from COVID-19 tests as modelling the impact of these tests is not possible at the moment. We leave our target price under review but argue that the risk-reward profile is skewed significantly to the upside.”

Trek

Diagnostics licence with Biokit

The licence agreement signed with Biokit, for the use of an Affimer reagent in an in-vitro diagnostics (IVD) product, is the first full commercial agreement within diagnostics. It provides further external endorsement of Avacta’s capabilities and serves as a reminder of the broad application of the Affimer platform outside of therapeutics and SARS-CoV-2. This licence is the third non-therapeutics agreement signed (New England Biolabs – life science research applications in 2018 and Astrea Bioprocessing in 2020) and in line with the building momentum of customer evaluations and development programmes using Affimers. We reiterate our SOTP valuation of 310p, with the key near-term milestone (clinical evaluation of lateral flow SARS CoV-2 test) expected around the end of Q1 2021.

?Newsflow. Avacta signed a licence agreement with Biokit, to incorporate Affimer® reagents into an undisclosed Biokit in-vitro diagnostic (IVD) product. Avacta will receive a royalty on future sales (low single digit is typical in the industry), once product development has completed and regulatory approval granted. The agreement also has scope to expand the partnership to include other diagnostic targets and future Affimer-based IVDs.

?Biokit is part of Werfen, a privately owned company located near Barcelona, with a global IVD presence. Werfen generated revenues and EBITDA of €1.47bn and €345m in 2019, respectively, of which IVD revenues accounted for €1.29bn (growing at c.7%) – so a very relevant and well respected partner.

?Strong endorsement for use of Affimers in diagnostics, following an extensive evaluation by Biokit of certain Affimer reagents designed to detect an undisclosed, albeit key analyte. This is a significant milestone for Avacta as it validates the Affimer reagent platform for diagnostics. It is the first commercial licence agreement reached with a third party in the diagnostics market (Avacta received an undisclosed upfront in 2017 from a top 3 diagnostics company to gain exclusive rights to several Affimer reagents), with Avacta understood to have further Affimers under licensing discussions (5 at the time of its fundraise in June 2020).

?Valuation. No changes to forecasts and we reiterate our SOTP target price of 310p. Of this, diagnostics (excluding AffiDX SARS CoV-2 rapid antigen test) account for c.20p (c.£50m) of the valuation. There is clearly scope for this to rise and we reference Bioventix (BVXP: £220m market capitalisation) as an example of the IVD licensing model Avacta is pursuing in conjunction with development of its wholly- owned pipeline of diagnostic products.

Trek

Trek

gkb47,

That’s not just Avacta, that is the characteristics of many commercial deals. It may be Biokit’s wishes as well as AVCT’s. You have to wait for the trading update or accounts to know how much cash filters through to the bottom line.

The alternative can be completely counterproductive in terms of establishing other deals and embedding existing ones. I get it can be a problem for a fledging biotech on a shoestring budget because you don’t know if they can fund it but the case of Avacta it has cash on its books; these deals will be very quickly monetised.

Trek

Don’t be surprised somebody has just re-invented the wheel! There will be many many more deals.

The royalty model enables market penetration at scale, at low cost, on OEM operational terms, and on time!

We are part of a market shift.

Trek

Just saw your post cross iPhone!

There’s lots of news due on earlyCDT but COVID has set us back a bit ... e.g from 2020 half year..

“ Oncimmune expects first sales of EarlyCDT Lung from China in Q1 of calendar year 2021.

EarlyCDT Liver is subject to NMPA approval, and regulatory activities are progressing to plan. Whilst lung cancer remains the number one killer of both men and women in China, with over 770,000 new cases diagnosed annually, liver cancer is the third largest cancer killer with over 390,000 new cases diagnosed annually.”

The revenues to come from these deals are substantial e.g...

Biodesix US commercial launch expected in early March (Q1) 2020; the agreement is valued at up to $28m over the initial 5 year period...

R-Pharm for the use of EarlyCDT Lung in Russia (and certain other countries) with a value of at least £5m, including milestone payments of up to £2.75m, with regulatory approval for screening expected in calendar H1 2020. In addition, R-Pharm is investing up to £3.5m in screening infrastructure in Russia.

Most deals do not have the numbers, that’s how it goes, but it will add up to 10’s millions of revenues across the globe when up to speed! The interims took us over £2. That’s a good marker to work from, I’m pretty confide in us moving to £3 as these deals land.

Just rereading my post ‘company does not need cash’, obviously I mean does not need to raise cash! Lol!

Trek

Quote Adam Hill following the excellent interims, ‘This company does NOT need cash.’

What can we expect now news wise...not all will get RNS but some may get a mention in next trading statement.

ImmunoINSIGHTS & COVID.

# news from >100 opportunities, 19 potential contracts are >£10.8 million + existing recurring contracts
# Following Government funding to deliver a research panel to profile severity of immune responses to COVID-19 and prediction of therapeutic responses we are due news on the availability of the panel to pharmaceutical partners; IMPACTT COVID-19 programme; ‘lighthouses labs’ >3000 covid pts, 800 antigen/peptide biomarkers, ONC’s proprietary platform; also likely more from Augmenta, US partnership in same space.
# Update on commercial panel for use in vaccine and infectious disease
research.
# Commercial update on Cedars-Sinai, California, covid contract.
# Maybe an update on Roche partnership for autoantibody profiling in patients with early Rheumatoid Arthritis treated with Methotrexate or Tocilizumab.

EarlyCDT

# Update on signed NHS trust contracts to screen an additional 2,000+NHS patients H1 2021.
# Substantial contracts pending with NHS trusts for the diagnosis of indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs). (EarlyCDT Lung is NICE preferred Diagnostics for IPNs)
# Biodesix have materially increased sales for EarlyCDT Lung in US ahead of pre-covid levels with a now bigger sales team. USPSTF recommended. May get some volumes.
# volumes from Diagnosticos da America, Latin America’s largest medical diagnostic company now offering EarlyCDT Lung across its extensive laboratory, private hospital and clinic network.
# EarlyCDT Lung is a truly global product sales in North America, Europe, Russia and member states (R-Pharm) South America and China (Genostics). This has opened up opportunities for EarlyCDT liver and sales volumes are picking up again to pre-covid levels.
# Late stages of planning and securing funding for a large, real-world, cancer control evaluation as follow up to ECLS, expected to study a population of c.65,000 people.

All this is beyond what has contributed to a 6 x increase in revenues reported in interims.

With 8.8k antigens on their discovery platform ONC have the largest available autoantibody cancer detection panel in-market. This offers huge savings for Pharma by matching therapeutics, candidate matching for clinical trials and predicting immune responses.

Their blood biomarker cancer detection AI platform has confirmed ability to detect ‘common’ cancers earlier, up to 4 years earlier leading to tailored individual early treatment. All readily monetised at scale following the investments made at a low operational cost!

Trek

Bully, the BB is playing up. If you click reply my other post should reappear!

Trek

FinnCap, 310 or 796, 3 x looking easy! Lol!

Lateral flow test can detect Kent variant of SARS-CoV-2

Confirmation that Avacta’s AffiDX® SARS Co-V-2 rapid antigen lateral flow test can detect the dominant mutated variants of the SARS CoV-2 virus is clearly a positive message for investors as it does not undermine the current test format, for which we await final clinical validation and CE marking around the end of the month. It is not unsurprising, given the Affimers in the tests do not bind in the region of the spike protein where the dominant mutations appear, but nevertheless, is reassuring. The ability to use the current test format to ‘plug and play’ new Affimer reagents for new variants, if necessary, as well as for any future pandemic virus, provides a lateral flow test format of long-term value. We reiterate our SOTP target price of 310p.

?Newsflow. AffiDX® SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen lateral flow test has been shown to detect the dominant new variants of the coronavirus. This includes (i) the B117 or Kent variant, which is the dominant form in the UK, present in over 50 countries and expected to become the next dominant strain globally, (ii) the D614G variant (commonly referred to as the G variant), which became the dominant global strain in 2020, as well as (iii) the original Wuhan strain.

?Implications. The fact that Avacta’s test can detect these dominant mutating strains of SARS-CoV-2 is clearly relevant as it suggests that (i) the test is less likely to be obsoleted as additional variants are identified and (ii) the test performance as determined by the current ongoing clinical evaluation is also unlikely to be affected. Equally, the lateral flow test architecture and strip format that has been developed by Avacta and its partners is sufficiently robust to ‘plug and play’ new Affimer reagents for new variants, if necessary, as well as for any future pandemic virus.

?Near-term outlook. We await full clinical validation and CE marking of the lateral flow antigen test around the end of Q1 2021, having already seen positive initial data from anterior nasal swab samples (30 positive samples with an infectious viral load and 26 negative samples), which demonstrated a sensitivity of 96.7% and a specificity of 100%.

?Valuation. No changes to forecasts and we reiterate our SOTP target price of 310p, with a high/low valuation of 796p and 211p, respectively, which reflects different assumptions for its SARS-CoV-2 antigen tests.

Trek

Worth reading the whole note. It’s free on the website. Sorry I get it emailed to me. IMO FinnCap recognise it’s impossible to value upside here. Another extract.....

“While Touchstone’s cash flow is set for an inflection point as Coho and Cascadura volumes kick-in this year, exploration is still a key driver for the shares.
Successful testing of the gas zones at Chinook and Cascadura Deep in the coming weeks would allow us to fully de-risk these discoveries, which all else being equal would raise our risked-NAV by 13% to 215p/sh.
Royston is next up to be drilled in Q2. This was always seen as the largest prospect within the current exploration programme and results so far have only raised management’s expectations and confidence in this target.
Pre-drill estimates suggest Royston could contain 0.5 - 1.0 tcf (83-167 mmboe) of gas. We assume 430 bcf (72 mmboe) and apply a 50% Geological CoS to get to our current 29p/sh risked-NPV. Success at Royston could boost our risked-NAV by another 33p/sh to ~250p/sh.
Beyond the current programme, a second stage of exploration will target some of the additional 21 prospects identified on the Ortoire block, so there is plenty of running room left. We do not include anything within our NAV for these prospects, while initial deeper testing at Chinook has highlighted additional prospectivity. As details emerge, they should drive further upside to valuation, especially in light of the 100% exploration drilling success rate delivered to date on the Ortoire block.
Moreover, with a strong cash position following November’s US$30m raise and a cash flow inflection point expected this year, Touchstone is lining up a third drilling rig to accelerate the pace of exploration and development drilling from late 2021. It feels like we are constantly playing catch-up with this management team that is pressing ahead rapidly with its extensive Ortoire block opportunity set.”

Trek

Pedal to the metal

Aside from a minor delay to its gas testing programme Touchstone is keeping its Ortoire exploration and development plans moving along rapidly. Q2 will see several important catalysts – oil and gas testing results from Chinook and Cascadura Deep, the start-up of production at Coho and drilling at Royston, its largest exploration prospect – which could add another 30% to our risked-NAV. A third rig will also be employed, allowing the pace of exploration and development drilling to accelerate from late 2021. There is a lot still to come from TXP.

?Gas testing delayed, but new oil zones encountered. Testing of the gas bearing zones at Chinook and Cascadura Deep has incurred third-party related delays, but all required equipment is expected on site within the next ten days. In the interim, TXP tested two low resistivity zones in the Chinook-1 well, with both zones encountering potential upside in the form of light sweet oil. The first in the lower sub-thrust sheet recovered significant water, deeming it uneconomic, but the presence of light oil proves the concept of hydrocarbons in this sheet and future development locations will be more optimally located. The second zone that encountered oil in the Herrera formation is being prepared for an extended oil production test.

?Development scope expanding. Coho-1 tie-in operations have started with initial gas production expected in Q2 2021. Regulatory applications are also in progress for the tie-in of Cascadura and any potential Chinook production before year-end. We currently assume Cascadura starts up in Q4, but do not include any Chinook volumes in our estimates. Touchstone is also applying for additional development locations at Cascadura and Chinook, suggesting further upside to these developments.

?Next exploration wave in sight. The Royston-1 exploration well remains on track to start drilling in Q2 2021, the last and largest prospect in the initial Ortoire exploration phase. Touchstone is looking to contract a third drilling rig for at least three years to drill deep targets at Royston, Cascadura and Chinook. A further 21 prospects have already been identified on the Ortoire block, so there is plenty of running room left.

?Estimate changes. We have raised our Brent oil price assumption to US$55/bbl in 2021 and 2022 and trimmed our Coho volumes in 2021, lowering group production by 4%. Nevertheless, the higher oil price assumptions drive a 3% increase in 2021 and 2022 revenues and a 5-7% increase in cash flow. Our risked-NAV and price target only increase slightly, however, to 191p/sh due to the additional burden of SPT charged at 18% beyond 2022 at our higher oil price assumptions.

Trek

I was watching. The MM went to fire up the ALGO machine but it was a cold frosty morning. It didn’t kick in as the SP left out of the blocks to 20.70! Gosh what a panic!

That could have threatened the one year high which now incredibly is only 21.2! I mean imagine it, on the radar of all those nasty momentum buyers! Lol!

Still the ALGO eventually chugged in and brought the price back below 20. Briefly though. Gotta a real tug of war on now. Peeps getting NT for dummy buys. Simple can’t afford this to runaway until we got som stock in the hoppers!

+20p close and that 26p hemline comes into play. With all the tipsters interest of late, the POO, the general commodities bull run and perhaps most of all that we have had no news which seems to be working in our favour. How does it look here ‘no news is big news!’. Lol!

Could well be last orders sub 20p before our bull run. Once through 26p we are talking a handle forming and technically all time highs!

Don’t you just love it if the charting voodoo plays out! I reckon this one will.

Usual caveats,

Trek

There will be an awful lot of ‘smart money’ on the sides. A claim that can only be substantiated by looking at the NCYT chart as the closest most recent paradigm.

I would say that AVCT are now where NCYT were in Sept 20. That’s at £4 which was their second run at their £4 high. Akin to us having a couple of pops at £2.

Following on from then the derisking test news, they had orders and route to market that took the SP up to £12.

That’s a 3x rise in a very short time. We then know that the momentum fizzled with competition and the SP finding a level. With more global demand, more scale and volume of sales I expect us to top at a much much higher level..

That equivalent momentum buying is still sat on the sidelines here.

We ‘knew’ or had enough hints to know that the test would pick up the variants but there is nothing like having an RNS. Likewise when we get the CE mark and or BAMS validation they will be significant derisking points which will green light further investment from the sidelines.

There are many that would rather pay 4 x as much for surety, a route to profit from there rather than risk say a 10 x return on what is still a high risk biotech.

When the validation comes so will the buying pressure. Assuming CE accreditation that’s not long to wait now for a MINIMUM 3 x return from here.

Usual caveats,

Trek

Tony Blair telling us what we knew over a year ago but well worth a read as it’s gone to Bojo...

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1406250/tony-blair-coronavirus-news-latest-vaccine-tony-blair-Institute-for-Global-Change-covid

Trek

Hi lakhman1

There are thresholds for insti investments determined in part by mcap. We are really micro, we don’t even make the small cap entry at 42.3m. See a Samantha’s predictor.

http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

Now flip to RNS 25th Jan 21...

“Novum are to undertake broker research on ECR Minerals plc, with a particular focus on enhancing market awareness of the Company, notably in the institutional investor community.”

Our 3% threshold holdings are ALL PI from the nominee accounts like interactive investor, AG bell, HL etc

Many think the warrant holders are insti’s, apart from Shenyang, who don’t really qualify as an insti, it’s mostly HNW individuals. It’s how it works. You register with a broker, they invite you to a funding. Then you pick the investments you like and get warrants.

There is never a guarantee that warrants will be in the money. Those early investors deserve a payday IF it comes off! Many investments DONT! Hence, if you hold shares and your warrants come in the money, many, not all will sell to get a free carry. You also have to weigh up that they may be underwater on other placings so have to net out on winners.

So ‘will we get insti’s?’

Having cogitated my humble opinion is also no, not just yet!

I think CB had a frank discussion with Novum who undoubtedly have a client list. The fact that ECR are funded is a game changer but even with the best assays it’s the route to finance and profit that they will want to see.

We may see an insti investment after a JV. A JV, changes everything. It’s a proportional shared risk!

So imo give a big % of Creswick away for cash + decent royalties. Add that to the Fosterville license royalties, sell Philippines and Argentina. Do an off take agreement for our ore with Kirkland Gold to truck it to Fosterville for processing. Raise to finance our Balieston mine while bringing on Tambo.

A pathway along those lines differentiates us from just another small cap miner. It’s a timebound route to profit which maybe enough to attract serious investment or likely a bid.

Usual caveats

Trek

Riteview,

That is correct you can carry forward one year’s unused allowance. It’s in the link.

Nice felling giving. Well done!

Trek