Member Info for TrekMadone

50 x 0.07p = £3.50 SP on a flat basis, there will be dilution but only $50m

5:25mins in to 6:25 for the metrics.

http://www.helium-one.com/presentations/

Or you can compare us to TXP, 11p to 177p from a similar mcap starting point, still with gas discoveries to come. But the price of Helium is exponentially more expensive than gas.

It costs less than gas to extract. 50x is probably underestimated on full commercialisation!

Helium $280/MCF, up 130% in a year. Selling now for up to $1500/MCF. If it doubles again this year or likely by more, that is a similar leverage effect BTC has had on ARB except this is less volatile to downside.

The pure helium producers have seen their SP go up 10x in 6 months. We are 50x bigger with a p50 of 138bcf. See blue star helium as a close peer.

+25 years of 100m revenue in first year will soon see a SP of around 2bn as the price goes up and it’s overwhelmingly profit.

Agree lots of ifs and buts. For now we need the trap and seal and we will be off! But as DM says more likely for JV/takeover.

Usual caveats

Trek

You have to ask how long the seller(s) will be prepared to offload for. No doubt there are some insti’s that took part in the placing that are satisfying this demand by grabbing a free carry on stock held.

I doubt many PI’s will be selling at this level. For sure there are always a few traders hoping to grab the top and then buy back the dip.

Thing is though the momentum here is only just picking up. We haven’t had a 25% or 40% day yet which is what I think it will take to free up more stock. Any PI’s that didn’t buy at £2.50 are now probably looking at £3 as being the new £2.50 to get in below.

New longer term institutional money will just grab stock at any price. They are buying £10 shares for £3 whilst there are a few available!

Once these weaker hands give up I wouldn’t be surprised to see a huge leap in SP in the region of 30% in one hit!

Usual caveats

Trek

I am also under water now but pretty sanguine. I get the RSI is either oversold or can be read as bearish. The slight delay in newsflow means people are sitting on the sidelines.

Most buy a rising SP and wont grab or top up when one is falling. The volatility here is to be expected at this macp. I would like to think I have a feel for it and experience will see me ok due to dmor. I have a level in mind to buy again but I have to sell elsewhere so it’s a timing issue.

As I see it...

1. News overdue based on CB”s own comments. Too many CEO’s make this mistake and can go from darling to villain and back to darling on the impetuous BB. Look at AVCT recently, and now lol! There is a reason for the delay.

2. There are still warrant holders converting. Remember, you can rarely buy or sell in 1m size orders here so there is a drip of sells without buyers to absorb. This doesn’t worry me as we have the cash and it enables a stronger shareholder base over time. It will end soon.

3. PI’s believing what they read on BB’s and are chasing the next fast thing in terms of chasing momentum. See you back here later! Lol!

4. The grades are great the JV partner or another one wants Balieston, CB has now gotta scratch his head because the offer is better than at Creswick due to the recent drills OR it could be a double JV and we drive the rig to Tambo! Lol!

5. CB wants to release whole of hole or two holes at once or he doesn’t want the JV parties at Creswick to see just how good Balieston is as that may set hares running.

So you can see there are lots of permutations, if you can’t think them through or you don’t like the risk then best to sell and wait on the sidelines for the explanation. If investing worries and delays are too worrisome at least take some money off so that you are at a more comfortable level otherwise you just gotta trust your research in the geography, the BoD and weigh it up.

Usual caveats.

Trek

They have mobilised the seismics. So at least we know there is some vehicular access! So far the company has delivered everything they said and on time.

Yes 20% was the quoted cos. Perhaps for those unsure of volumetrics it’s akin in terms of value to 13TCF of gas! That is astonishing to put into context 0.5 TCF would blow the doors off a SP of a O&G minnow of this mcap.

I was in ARB at 4.3p. I sold most too early but still have a few. If the the trap and seal are in place here then this will likely beat ARB sp rise!

Or another comparison in the oil & gas sector that is still underway is TXP. From 11p to 177p. It’s pulled back now but will start is run again soon.

And yet there are relatively few investors here. Even £1000 invested here on a shoot or bust basis could deliver +5000% return!

Usual caveats

Trek

Is you doubt the appetite for this tech, not how oversubscribed POLX’s placing was yesterday! Wow!

Trek

Well that’s that sorted now. I have been on the sidelines here waiting for the fundraise. 17% is much more than I and probably others expected but the discount isn’t too bad. They also say min £20m so I guess they may take more.

It’s a huge raise but looks to be well supported. Think I will stay on the sidelines as previous AIM placings of late have seen the SP drift to or even below the placing price. Long term very good prospects here imo.

Trek

Good spot David,

Interestingly the two takeovers I held this year, LID and HZD both saw inexplicable drops in SP before being announced. Ironically both were in the same week!

Not saying a dip below 200 is an inexplicable drop here. It’s probably just investor fatigue as fast PI money chases other news while we await news here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-15/roche-agrees-to-buy-covid-test-maker-genmark-for-1-8-billion?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business

Trek

...of GemMark by Roche, 2 hours ago!

Why because they want access to the fast growing Covid test space. Wouldn’t be surprised if they pick up ONC along the ways as well.

What’s that got to do with AVCT? Well it’s about sentiment, a land grab for the future and recognition that these innovative platforms are in demand. It’s cheaper and more efficient to buy than to create. Imo, there will be more!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-15/roche-agrees-to-buy-covid-test-maker-genmark-for-1-8-billion?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business

Usual caveats,

Trek

It’s not market sensitive but I am aware that the CFO of NexTech was in Italy with GC this week. That’s all I know. No reason, why or wherefore. It’s not sensitive in anyway but I take it as a positive that things are moving. You have to choose to accept or reject this info as you wish.

Trek

“ECR sp is struggling enough without these daft posts.”

Just for info on the new google finance page you can now set up separate watchlists. I have one titled ‘Gold’ another ‘financials’, ‘oil & gas’ etc. The gold one has 15 gold miners that I watch, mostly small cap Canada and Oz, all bar 2 are down atm. This SP malaise is across the whole sector.

It pretty much coincides with the POG dip below $1700 and the yield increase on US 10 yrs, even though they are negative in real terms, 2% interest rates.

Obviously doesn’t help that we are waiting news and that there is another 16% of warrants outstanding beyond the current Blocklisting fully diluted.

So you pays your money takes your choice.

I think we will have news on hole 1 assays next week. I doubt it will make much difference to the SP though. Anything over 3g/t is easily commercial with this POG but I expect we will be over 5g/t but it’s only one sample. Hence my expected market ambivalence.

The licences; now if we get two more that will move the SP as it’s land and accretive, but not by a lot. With have a nice view of Tambo but no plans there yet!

The SP mover is the JV. This is because it represents a market valuation for the company. What someone else is prepared to buy in for. It also shows a more realistic route to production on a shared risk basis. It’s obviously not in the price I mean how can it be.

Without news we will trade imo on technicals.

The SP has retraced from its ATH of 4.25 to now 3p. If 3p holds and it breaks back up that’s a double bottom and support. If it breaks below 3p we head for a 50% retrace to 2.125.

My preference is the news. I thought news would be here before 3p that’s why I bought at 3.4 and 3.3. However, I will sell elsewhere to buy if it closes below 3p with no news. This will enable me to go the 3m instead of 2m shares so it’s an opportunity if one believes in one’s own research.

JV is the key.

Usual caveats.

Trek

You will find that if you crystallise a capital gain you need to be aware of the 30 day rule.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/shares-and-capital-gains-tax-hs284-self-assessment-helpsheet/hs284-shares-and-capital-gains-tax-2020#rule

If you have the cash and you really want those shares in an ISA, I would put the cash in or b&b another investment to sell and then use that to buy the stock. You can then sell down gradually.

I am getting my head around moving SAVE into a number of ISA’s to use up this years CGT allowance but I may move GSK instead as it’s more liquid and less spread. Then sell GSK in the ISA to buy SAVE. I can then sell SAVE in my trading account and buy GSK for income. My trades are only £3.99 and some good timing can net out the trading costs. It’s just that you have to pay tax on the GSK trades but not AIM!

It would be so much easier if they just gave a husband and wife a joint account option with double allowances!

Good luck

Trek

Good post guys I think you have arrived at the answer. It’s a pointer but can only pick up Au when it’s under its nose. Great to have such an erudite bunch of posters.

So what are trains late?

If you are walking in one direction and the turn to go in the opposite direction you have to STOP, turn around and continue. So at some point you STOP to turn.

So if a fly is whizzing towards a freight train then hits its windscreen before going in completely the opposite direction the fly must at some point STOP before turning around. Therefore, if the fly has stopped so has the train!

So there you have it. It’s nothing to do with leaves on the track it’s all down to flies!

I could never calculate the moments for that one in physics! Lol!

Trek

Good job King!

I hold all three that you tipped. As for finding them. Not one route for me. In the case of gold miners it was a macro decision then I built a spreadsheet and started with 30 before whittling down to just a few having cut out all the dodgy jurisdictions. Hence I didn’t buy UFO lol which came up but I could see it also needed funding! But I did buy GGP now sold along with others and put it all into ECR and COBR. ECR is very cheap atm and the best I have ever come across in the PM space. There is very little I don’t know about the company.

As for ARB, I read the IPO alert, thought it was pricey waited and bought. I wanted access to a Blockchain investment without owning crypto. The other 3 investments in the same space I sold but stuck with ARB from 4.3p! Only to sell most too early. That has been a weakness with me. I find stocks and take profits too early. Same as here!

In the biotech space. Having dipped out financially with the onset of covid I thought mmm, someone is bound to benefit and I first bought BYOT, hand gels, then looked into testing NCYT (sold), GDR, AVCT then Therapeutics SNG. A few others I sold and tipped Prost into others. I also picked out ERGO, sold too early and bought ONC that I still hold. The CEO is so accommodating and has replied to all my emails. I am pretty much the only poster there from 80p so you can see DYOR does work even without a busy BB!

I bought VRS (sold, my first 10 bagger) as I was reading an article on graphene. I bought a few others all also sold now but I kept DCTA. They will be huge one day. I have had occasional email exchanges with the CEO who is awesome and again there are just few posters there but you can see back at 40p I was pretty much talking to myself! I have averaged up several times since!

So lots of sources. As for TXP and SAVE I got here by default having got burnt on XEL, stung on DES and bamboozeled on RKH then gave up on SOU and realised I needed to up my game in O&G. I honestly can’t remember how I came to TXP, I think it may have been an article then reading the BB and remember honing in on Dana’s posts at about 17p! It had over 200k shares at one point and sold down ahead of each drill. Then they just kept coming in! Lol!

As for SAVE, that was a Malcy tip, ashamed to say as it was at 30p! but it was one I actually dug so deep into I liked it and bought. I sold and bought on the drop so many times and traded my way into what is now a significant profit there. From memory it hit 10p I bought back in then it hit like 18p I sold the lot and bought back from 9p down and now have 10 time more shares going from 30k to now over 600k shares.

I have a home for many of my investments. The aim is once reasonably bombproof to see the kids and a few others ok. That’s my motivation now.

So lots of differing roads!

Good luck with your investments!

Trek

“XRF analyser" uuuum ....do you reckon Craig got that on Ebay? Any Miner's out there know how accurate a XRF analyser is ?

We know from a video Craig said he paid A$50k for an Olympus XRF. You can get a second hand one for around $30k

“An XRF does not detect gold, however, it can detect the geochemical pathfinder elements that are commonly associated with gold, the most common one being arsenic, but also silver, copper, cobalt and selenium to name a few — and it does all this in a matter of seconds. (See ref).”

To see it’s benefits look at the 20th Nov 2020 RNS...

“Detailed portable XRF (pXRF) geochemical sampling was conducted to better define the surface expression of the mineralisation and to seek extension to shoots. Some 920 readings were taken, on average 10 metres apart but sometimes as close as 2 metres to attempt to follow and define trends.”

The Cherry Tree workings mostly lie on the westerly limb of a N-S elongate anticlinal dome (Fig. 2). The pXRF results show numerous zones of anomalism, mostly close to the historic workings.”

It’s like a water diviner that works!

This is likely ours, price is available on request....

https://advanspec.uk/en/shop/product/xrf-analysers/vanta-xrf-analyzer/

Reference...

https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/gold-investing/xrf-analyzers-cost-cutting-precious-metals-exploration-technology/

You can find more on google. There are also vids on YouTube.

Trek

I reckon a good day today...

Could this be the buy of the day?

Buying 250,000 ECR MINERALS ORD GBP0.00001 (ECR)
Status:Executed
Placed at:08:10:39 11/03/21
Price:£0.032849
Order Type:Market

Thought I’d take advantage of the bickering here and try a different way of explaining patience.

Lol!

Trek

Any other company and I would have sold long ago. In fact I am thinking about it. It’s been such hard work keeping above water here. Absolutely no support from the directors.

I understand directors can sell for many reasons but they mostly buy for one reason. That rationale eludes me here!

If it wasn’t for the numbers, the AISC, resource volumes, grades, ongoing drilling potential plus the GDX, Sprott and commercialisation I’d be out. Or is it all just an illusion! Madness!

Trek

Cambridge,

“Let the confetti dilution cannon fire!!! Lets hope the drills are way beyond what is expected given the placing requirements, otherwise this will tank!!!”

You have kinda answered your own question. We will only fundraise if ‘the drills are beyond, or rather as expected’. Then there are strategic options to sell, JV or raise to produce alone.

If they are dusters the SP will go to zilch. So risk accordingly.

If however, they are good then a $50m raise at say then discounted to even 40p from a 50p SP won’t matter much to us. If the asset is in the $100’s millions over the near term then it’s not exactly confetti. Dilution will be pretty minimal. This is not a BPC type set up with billions of shares and a death spiral finance package with a BoD full of hubris.

The upside here is huge! The downside is 100%. It reminds me of when I bought ARB at 4.3p, no one believed the math. I even doubted myself eventually selling most too early as did the CEO but fortunately I kept a few and learnt some good lessons. No 1. It’s my research I trust. No 2 I keep selling winners too early!

Usual caveats

Trek

Still on.....

“During the year we were appointed exclusive manufacturing partner by iAbra for Virolens,® a rapid COVID-19 screening device. Evaluation trials of the product are continuing, and iAbra is making good progress with the regulatory approvals process. There continues to be a role for COVID-19 screening to complement vaccination programmes in the UK and elsewhere. Revenue to TT from the sale of Virolens® are dependent on potential end customers converting expressions of interest into firm orders and regulatory approval in each relevant territory. There continues to be a wide range of potential commercial outcomes and hence no certainty as to the financial impact on TT.”

Trek

Should see the bid close above 110 today, if so as per my earlier posts, fwiw, that is a ‘signal’ that we have bounced off the bottom. We may get money coming in from folk, like me, who had sold the downtrend and looking to buy back cheaper.

I managed the average back in at 104 having sold from 145 so go a few extra shares. Of course it could have gone the other way and I’d have lost out but it’s all a game of chance.

Trek

Pretty easy to summarise. The yoy numbers are awful, however, the outlook is excellent and we know this is credible because of the divi reinstatement.

Trek