Member Info for TrekMadone

Well done Darren,

This will pick up again once Ennismore finish selling. I got out with a profit. Company ticks all the boxes I will be back in later. Gives me a chance to time news elsewhere for now while this settles

Trek

Ring Ring....Craig here.
Hi Craig it’s Novum,
Hi what can I do for you guys, ya got me some insti’s!
Oh, that’s what we’re calling about. We could really do with a slide deck Craig.

It’s all on the web mate you’ll find it there, I’m too busy for that stuff, we’re drilling!

Sure Craig we understand but it’s just that all your information on the web is a bit, [cough, wince] ‘hickledee pickledee’, it’s like all over the place. We could really do with a PowerPoint.

Novum guy holds phone at a distance and his head sinks into his shoulders, taking cover! ....

Fk me mate, you think I got time to do a power whatever that is. We got navies down here on the hour, we got more visible gold and I want those assays RNS’s ASAP. I ain’t got time for a frigging slide deck. It’s the assays that drive the value and the value that drive the numbers and the drill drives everything!

Yes Craig. But we do have a couple of institutional investors who do like to look over a PowerPoint before they commit. We can assure you these clients would be really worth getting on board.....please Craig, if you could give us some pointers anything high level.... Please (again)

Ok let me think....(Craig thinks aloud, shuffling Rota’s, XRF’s and routines expertly in his main shale).

Right I’ll knock something up over the weekend. It won’t be pretty but you guys can tart it up and get it out there. Oh, and stick it on an RNS won’t you. Give our PI’s something to chew over as well rather than just them insti folk.

Thanks Craig, look Craig it will be worth it. Thanks.

Ok no bother, now how much longer for that Assay RNS. I don’t you guys ‘colouring in’ a PowerPoint before that news is out there...

Oh Craig it’ll be there. They are still snowed under at the labs. I think if we get the PowerPoint out then the insti’s see the grades. It’ll really reinforce it.

Mmm ok but crack on hey....

Under breath..... ()*&£@!!!. PowerPoint can’t even drill now without a (‘“££&£”i!!!!! PowerPoint!

Trek

Hopefully that’s it for the 6’s now. If it goes there again I will add as it didn’t test the 5’s so what I had spare for the 5’s I will pump into the next 6’s. If it takes off from here happy days I can let it ride without having to sell some to recover my trading pot.

I think we will get a rise on or leading up to spud. I know we don’t now for oil and gas wells but I have never heard of a helium well spudding before. That surely would be a SP pivotal event!

Trek

Got 150k at 3.569 just now. Likely it shows here as a sell in 20mins as mid point really tight which is good news for some liquidity.

Trek

Thanks harry,

That is or could be one of those clever posts that could set hares running! Especially if backed up with a decent sale. Then in this game that could be to cover a larger buy or a short. Who knows.

Not expecting the company to respond but they should as we have said provide some news.

I have sold elsewhere to add here but I am gonna wait for TSx to open. If it recovers i’ll wait but if it dips I will defo buy as I see it as an opportunity to grab some extra shares for the longer term.

This can go back up with the right news as quickly as it came down. The resources are there probably just needs a bit of WD40!

Trek

Sitting out for now. Insti selling probably because we are approaching the silly season! Been a pull back from 310 to 290 on their sells. Not too bothered by temp CFO but I think if selling picks up there will be a cheaper reentry given that this company hardly sends any news out! Rather protect profit for now.

Trek

Looking like the 50% retrace from ATH is a possibility. I don’t know what the dip at close on TSX was all about.

I could buy at 98 but NT to sell. Fortunately I kept some back just in case.

This drop still makes zero sense. DL should given the fall do an interview or better still put his hand in his pocket to let the market know all is well.

If this is a false fall then it should rocket back up!

I’m taking confidence in research and Sprott but at the end of the day I have been around long enough to know any company will shaft their PI’s!

Trek

Girdz,

Yep! I was doing a peer comparison with D4T4 and got them wrong way round.

https://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stockreport/default.aspx?tab=5&vw=own&SecurityToken=0P000093GA%5D3%5D0%5DE0WWE%24%24ALL&Id=0P000093GA&ClientFund=0&CurrencyId=BAS

Trek

Hi D2C2,

Yes and he missed a few.

7. Are they operating in a safe jurisdiction with a stable fiscal regime... Perhaps he left than one out as his punts was in Mali!

8. Can the team progress with a degree of autonomy or are they dependent on suppliers so sat around waiting for someone else to move all the time!

9. Or how about do they have enough cash on the balance sheet at the point of investment so as an investor you don’t walk into dilution before you have a good cushion under the SP!

10. Or a bit like 9 really... is the level of capitalisation sufficient so that you are not going to be hit with a wall or warrant conversions all at once. We are now an extra 16% fully diluted! And funded well past 1 year!

11. How about has the BoD any experience of bringing a mine into production before? Do the have skin in the game?

12. Or for balance does the company have the support of an institutional shareholder(s). Well we have one Shenyang, but our new broker is working on that one.

Well I could go on just reading the headings off the top of my spreadsheet but let’s just say ECR! ECR! lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

“I know £2.50 (initial target) might seem like ramping here”

News of the first £2m in sales will see this past £2.50 as the expectation will be that much more will be coming. It really won’t take that much sales wise to give this a £10 sp albeit it will probably be bought out before then. Shame after all this risk.

Usual caveats.

Trek

I am not sure if they need to place either. The market here may be preempting one, hence the SP decline.

It basically hinges on cash and revenues. Note a company doesn’t wait for cash to be on fumes before raising!

“...the Company's results for the year ended 31 December 2020 are expected to include:
· revenues for the year ended 31 December 2020 of c.£1.70m..

· a loss before tax for the year ended 31 December 2020 of c.£7.18m (2019: £5.36m);”

And...

“· total headcount as at 31 December 2020 of 69...”

“...end of January 2021 the Company had available unaudited cash resources of c.£2.76m.”

Then....’however’ is never good...

“However, given recent experiences, the Board believes that the current pandemic may well result in a further lengthening of sales cycles. To address this, Bidstack's strategy will be to concentrate on the appropriate implementation of its technology even if this is at the expense of some short term opportunities.”

Well this statement is open for interpretation. I read it as new money (sales cycles) are delayed and the ‘concentration’ points to spending more time with existing ARR clients and R&D not ‘short term’ unknowns. So it’s a market slow down and organic preservation.

So to assume worse case, revs same, pay costs increased, cash position depleting. How long will the cash run?

On the income assume where we are likely to be end of March..

1.6m warrants o/s, I wouldn’t bank on them, it’s a bonus.
Cash 2.76m end jan after injection.
Revs 141.6k pm x 3 = 424k
Losses 600kpm = 1.8m
Or another way
5.9m cash from June 20 to 2.35m in Dec 20/6 = 600k cash burn/mth
So 3x600k = 1.8m. 2.76m-1.8m = 96k. 200k held back for a placing gives us 76k cash unless there are other substantial Rev payments/end of year payments which may be likely and will help.If not a bookbuild will be needed by end of April but they would likely do it this fiscal!

Appreciate it’s a fag packet but it’s a tight call.

The plus is this co is well supported by institutions, probably why they didn’t raise at much higher SP! If I have to bet. I’d say a placing in the first couple of weeks of March. If not they are assuming they can freewheel into the new year and with some cost savings grow organically from there. Tight call though!

Usual caveats

Trek

Looking at a 50% fib retrace to 87p! I don’t think we’ll see that though. We may stick around here for a while whilst the 50 kisses the 200 DMA. The RSI is extremely oversold at 29.5.

But like said the low will likely be intra day. You won’t catch it with an order you’ll need to be lucky.

For perspective I thought 110 would be the bottom and was wrong but all logic says we are near there and the sooner news lands the sooner we can start moving again as this imo is silly cheap.

Buying the bounce is not a bad shout. That could be a lift back above 110.

You have to just accept the charts for what they are in the absence of news. Longer term is bullish though.

Trek

Doesn’t matter if it was a buy or a sell. Very encouraging that a trade that size flowed through in normal time. With all the recent ALGO trades I would have expected it to be delayed and published after hours.

Relatively speaking the SP has absorbed it and hardly moved!

Trek

Added again today. Gold up strongly, covid stimulus signed off, US hoping inflation will eradicate debt. Interest rates on 10yrs are a concern but if inflation picks up even that will vapourise!

And yet this hyper efficient mine that is about to commercially pour and extend its resources is at recent lows.

I guess the way you make money is by doing the math and buying the lows as long as you can wait. Technically there is a hemline support at 103. If that goes then it’s silly lows. We may or may not dip below the psychological £1 but I think with news soon this has to be the bottom.

I guess if we say it often enough we’ll be right eventually!

So now we know why the directors sold some - they are expert TA guys! Lol!

Trek

Their finals are out today. Worth having a look at the RNS. Notably they achieved guidance even with the pull back...

# Working-interest production within guidance at 51,183 boepd, despite demand fall and OPEC+ quotas.

Also...

· ANOH project now budgeted under original $700 million FID estimate, but COVID-19 related delays to H1 2022

· Creation of New Energy unit to manage gas processing and future low carbon to zero carbon initiatives.

Trek

Interesting article on vaccinations & passports. Ctea not mentioned but logifect are...

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/economics/journal-of-the-plague-years-xvi-vaccination-authentication/?utm_source=Weekly+News&utm_campaign=36b7db126c-Weekly_News_20200503_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6383de1f13-36b7db126c-48843590&mc_cid=36b7db126c&mc_eid=418bda054f

Trek

From the lse news link here.....

“Roche Holding AG - Basel, Switzerland-based pharmaceutical company - Secures special approval by the German Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices to offer its SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Antigen Test using a nasal swab for patient self-testing in Germany. "The approval of our test provides people in Germany with a reliable option to test themselves in the comfort of their own home. Regular self-testing at home can reduce pressure on healthcare systems. It can quickly identify people with the highest potential to be infectious so they can take immediate action to manage their infection, seek medical advice and protect others," says Thomas Schinecker, Chief Executive of Roche Diagnostics.”

Trek

Well to answer your question is easy. No one knows!

I have a view that the placing shares were forward sold. Hence the SP tick up and retreat.

I also speculate that the SP will retreat to or below the placing price, probably more due to technicals than revenue forecasts.

I kinda think that cash on the sidelines could see a sub 15p entry. Perhaps that is also contributing to the sp decline!

So being able to see both cases, if on the sidelines and wanting to invest I would average in over time.

No advice intended!

Trek

And another £2m - 900k of buys on the 25th Feb!

25-Feb-21 15:33:09 213.80 200,000 Buy* 210.00 214.00 427.60k
25-Feb-21 15:28:54 214.00 350,000 Buy* 210.00 214.00 749.00k
25-Feb-21 15:47:20 213.80 150,000 Buy* 210.00 214.00 320.70k
25-Feb-21 21:11:17 213.80 200,000 Unknown* 0.00 0.00 427.60k

Follow the money!

Trek

You can see the trades here on the lse site...

https://api.londonstockexchange.com/api/gw/lse/download/SAVE/trades

I note the the MM’s have now fired up the ALGO trading to generate liquidity. They would have posted a scheme with the stock exchange under MiFidII...

Definition: market making incentive schemes that the Exchange is mandated to offer under Article 48(2)(b) of MiFID and Article 1 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/578

Page 58 covers it and also ALGO trades.

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/rules-lse.pdf

One wonders why they are now doing this. For sure it’s not to keep the price up. More like trying to pin it down for some reason.

Trek