Member Info for TrekMadone

Forecast £5-£7/LFT

Assume £7 per test reducing to £5 in a year, 50% profit to AVCT

Retained Loss per year, this is to be covered by earnings for AV -28m
Cash on books after 12 months, estimate 12m

LFT sales of 5m/pm, £3.5 profit 3 months 52.5m
LFT sales of 8m/pm £3.5 profit for 3 months 84m
LFT sales of 20m/pm, £3 profit for 3 months 180m
LFT sales 30m/pm, £2.50 profit for 3 months 225m

Other income 4m
Profit in 12 months from first LFT sale 545.5m

That’s why the SP is up significantly from 30p!

The CV means risk is to the upside from here. Just need to scale production. Demand will remain strong.

Even if the LFT price comes down significantly AV is now well funded and AVCT should be able to pay a special dividend in the future.

Usual caveats

Trek

Surprised at the 13.98 UT EOD trade.

Surprised at the breach of 14p today was expecting it later.

Surprised at the low volume and in the round buys and sells evenly matched. Surely there should have been more selling!

Expecting a few delayed sells to justify that UT even though it’s only 6k shares.

Well I guess I am expecting to be surprised here again!

The SP glidepath is unequivocally north! We could yet be surprised by a VTO next week!

Ramp or chart interpretation you decide but I am calling 16p this week as Bank holiday Monday and I expect a decent rally into next Friday. If the SP was going to be knocked back by the placing it would have been today.

Usual caveats

Trek

Not worried by drop. It fits the SP pattern. This will soon be £3. Mm taking it down as contracts have been telegraphed. They need stock imo.

John117, I saw your post on HE1. Imo you got in here at a good price. I am looking to add here. It’s a slow steady eddy. I started buying under 80p. Take out the peaks and troughs and the glidepath is pretty impressive all backed by data.

Trek

Totally agree with you gkp, they changed tact and now they ‘are’ going to make a shed load of money from the AN LFT enough to ‘hopefully’ fully fund the oncology for the foreseeable.

Hence I swallowed my hubris picked up my teddy and bought more shares.

Trek

Lol! I wish!

Those negative trades below the mid point are sells that were posted and then cancelled. Probably having another go for a better price.

There are some decent large sells going through and the SP is holding up. Looks like the MM is happy to take them to fill orders.

I must say I expected us to be 11-12p today. It’s so often that we get caught out with the unexpected.

The main thing is the SP trajectory overall and that is up.

We should get environmentals soon which will probably be sold into by some waiting for a higher price then it’s rig mob, which may be put back a bit by the weather. The MM will use any delays to hit us but the drill will happen.

Buckle in guys!

Trek

I just bought 89226 at 13.536p ( will show here in about 15mins). It was in NT for 10mins and went through around the time of that drop. The price to buy was not available.

I could sell 300k though without NT.

So looks to me you still can’t buy at volume but the MM will take sells.

Some of those at 10p may be waiting for a higher exit.

Usual caveats

Trek

‘Thoughts?‘

Holdings RNS, TR1 is 3% for uk and 5% for non uk investor holdings.

https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/

Any TR1 will be next day for uK and 5 days non UK for threshold or whole % over threshold.

It is unlikely 1 entity would expose a position of 3% of new money in this venture. More likely a lot of HNW individuals on the brokers books that were invited. Most institutional money tends to wait for derisking events like finding commercial He and will have mcap triggers like 100m, 500m, 1bn etc

My take on the SP this week is that the momentum came out of the rise because people were expecting placed shares to be sold. It looks like in general that was not the case so people have rebought and I expect those that missed out on the placing and still want a punt now have to buy.

10p is no longer the anticipated floor it’s going to be 14p again soon and the SP will rise towards spud. So many are now expecting +20p pre drill that sentiment will take the SP there.

Then we will see selling as placees and some PI’s sell half on a double. But there will be new ‘hot money’ that arrives for the drill(s).

The weather will have a say so don’t be surprised if there are delays but May still looks to be very exciting.

Remember directors and seed investors have a 2 year lock in and then can only sell via house broker via orderly market guidance. That is a significant vote of confidence!

There is only one way for the SP now and the irony is for a high risk investment these next few weeks are possibly the lowest risk play of all of my holdings! Lol!

Imo the only way now is up!

Usual caveats

Trek

aandi larryh,

Good work guys! I didn’t know so a list existed. The ESG qualities of this company are absolutely key and GC is absolutely passionate about it!

He is very good at replying to investor emails.

Itsyou,

You still here mate, hope you are ok.

Trek

They dropped sp to hold it in range. I reckon most of the derisk selling has been done ahead of results. Can’t blame some large holders sitting on a free carry now.

Sure financials show losses but look what we have for the money spent. That’s the focus going forward and we’ll hear more later.

The CV derisk has settled holders. No need to panic now. Just enjoy!

Usual caveats

Trek

‘Strong demand’

Trek

Not an NCYT bash just a comment. I wonder how much of the decline is down to the AVCT news. Not necessarily from a technological perspective but more so from ‘covid’ savvy PI’s switching to the next ride north.

Trek

NT to buy but can sell. So how is the price down. Because there isn’t stock and the MM knows people sell a falling stock and buy a rising stock. So to fill the hopper you have to mark the price down.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a flash crash soon to grab stops before it moves back up with pace.

Gonna be quite a ride!

Trek

£20m traded yesterday. That’s a decent volume. It’s impossible to know % sells or buys but what we do know is that sort of volume has allowed significant holdings to change either way.

Any large seller would have been able to reach or get near their new intended position.

I reckon there will be new money waiting on the sidelines to absorb the sell side presentation and other money waiting for orders to materialise.

My interpretation is from here risk is to the upside. I bought over £20k yesterday from £2.88 down to my last buy at the close of £2.45! I couldn’t believe that opportunity.

AVCT is now bordering on a YOLO stock for me!

The CV now enables us to see value from those manufacturing deals and infrastructure investment. We have the scale to bid for sales and deliver at volume.

CE and ISO are procedural. I have experience of both and Lloyds audits. They really aren’t a big deal for a company that already has QMS in place. Avacta follow GMP already. No worries for me there. The worry was getting CV and being able to produce at scale.

£2.50 will very soon be the new £1.20 (placing) support. I expect many PI’s that know the story and the potential here will if funds allow be averaging up and still stay below £2.50.

Whilst serious institutional money is probably waiting for more data I wouldn’t underestimate the impact of PI buying. It certainly seemed to hold us blue yesterday against what looked like some hefty sells.

IMO +£3 broker targets are now in sight!

Usual caveats

Trek

“This could do a NCYT style rise on confirmation of CE and contracts”

Totally agree, that’s why I have added significantly for me today over several tranches.

The CV is a huge derisk and we are not even at ATH’s! CE/ISO are basically paper trails, no problem for a company that already embarks GMP. Sometimes you just gotta follow your instincts. The irony is if this was touching £3 there’d be more buyers today! It’ll come.

Trek

Craig William Brown
Director and Chief Executive Officer
(aged 50)

Appointed as Finance Director in May 2016 and CEO in September 2016. Founding shareholder of Kryso Resources plc, now known as China Nonferrous Gold Ltd. Acted as Finance Director of Kryso before becoming Managing Director in 2010 and stepping down from the board in September 2013. During this period, Kryso/CNG delineated a 5-million-ounce JORC Mineral Resource at the Pakrut gold project in Tajikistan, completed a bankable feasibility study for the project, obtained debt and equity finance for mine development, and commenced construction of the mine and infrastructure. Prior to his roles with Kryso/CNG, Craig held senior management positions with two Canadian listed mining companies, both of which also successfully put gold mines into production during his tenure.

Weili (David) Tang
Non-Executive Chairman
(aged 55)

David Tang was previously the President of China Nonferrous Metals Int’l Mining Co., Ltd. (CNMIM) and
the Managing Director of China Nonferrous Gold Ltd, an AIM-listed company which was formerly known as Kryso Resources plc. China Nonferrous Gold is focused on the Pakrut gold mine in Tajikistan, where first gold was poured in 2015. Mr Tang has previously served as a director to several companies involved in mining or exploration in Africa, South East Asia and Australia. Mr Tang graduated with a Bachelor of Science degree (1988) majoring in computer science from Central-South University, China and also holds a Master of Science degree (1991). In the 1990s, he pioneered the trading system for the first nonferrous metals futures exchange in China. He worked for several years in Canada in investment management and consulting, before returning to China to take up office at CNMIM in 2003.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this is their last project before going off into the sunset - hopefully very wealthy!

I also didn’t see any negative trades today. Leads me to think people read this BB! Lol!

As for the GGP comparisons, fwiw I sold all my GGP in tranches down from 33p to 24p from memory and put it in here! I just see ECR as being more likely to multibag than GGP and I like we have a lot of control over our own destiny with the drill, labs, xrf and cash. We have a flat spell atm but like I say this is a two year play for me but I do sympathise with those in higher that can’t average down.

Trek

There’s plenty of upside yet before spud. We will soon see how many 10p shares are cashed in. There’s bound to be a few but likewise with the placing being oversubscribed on a cash basis. I mean by that the money was on the table but not needed some will be buying on market.

Environmentals shouldn’t be too far off. Then spud probably 4-5 weeks time. Two possible major SP drivers although to be fair, some companies don’t announce spud now. It’s not the event it used to be deemed but I think for a pioneering drill in Tanzania it will be welcome news!

So for those buying now the chance of low risk returns before the higher risk stage commences and then it’s unlikely to be binary.

Pretty sure they will get HE then it’s about a reservoir, well seal, 3D’s, appraisals and other targets. Gonna be quite some ride!

23p on start of ops is my bet.

Trek

Thanks - trading is on 2.222 to sell 2.299 to buy good spread atm.

Trek

Been waiting for sub £1 but looks like that’s a floor now so added at 102.6. Now watch it go to 95p!

Trek

So we just need deals now to take this tech forward. Like mobile phones, credit cards, seat covers, covid safe etc

We have manufacturing contracts for the apparel but this tech offers so much more. SYM is capitalised at £43m for using antibacterial plastics for food processing and carrier bags. When I last looked they hadn’t tested against live virus. We did that ages ago. They also had issues with the EU over single use plastics as their reusables were biodegradable.

So again DCTA are in another niche with huge potential. Need to maximise those opportunities!

“The G+® coating has been developed specifically for the automotive, upholstery, interior design, accessories and consumer electronics markets. It is thermally and electrically conductive, antibacterial and antiviral (certified to be anti-sars cov-2), UV and abrasion-resistant and can be applied to a wide variety of substrates, from natural and artificial fabrics to non-woven and microfiber, as well as felt and leather.

Giulio Cesareo, Chief Executive of Directa Plus, commented: "As always, our products are tested to the highest possible standards before releasing them to our target markets. Because our products are dermatologically tested to be non-toxic and hypoallergenic, Directa's business partners can develop innovative new products knowing that they will be safe for their own consumers."

Trek

Worzel,

The Market Abuse Regulators email is on the link. May be worth sending the examples if you are so inclined.

Trek