Member Info for TrekMadone

It allows new investors to jump on with a cushion for the the drill.

The MM will also shake it about a bit. I posted a while back to expect to see a flash crash here where the SP is artificially dropped to take out stops.

You have to appreciate that we had a 10p placing. Many of those investors would have sold for 20% some may have stuck around for a sell half of a double; and yet the SP powered north taking out those sells!

Any pull back here at this level will be pretty short lived IMO.

May also see the 0800-0900 morning dip becoming a theme!

I wouldn’t even be surprised if we finish blue today lol!

Trek

Hi All,

ONC’s capital structure becomes appropriate for a US listing, they get the data from the trail, that’s another +1000 pts, PRC sales and their IP come back in house. They then continue to benefit from access to the Chinese market. It’s is not clear how the future distribution will come about though.

Genostics benefit from their recent ONC SP gains on their 4.6% sale, they get to keep an investment for a year and get paid a fixed sum dependent on successful completion.

This deal seems to be very much in ONC’s favour. I think Chueng To just decided it didn’t fit with Gene Group who are themselves doing other deals now. Sometimes something just fits at the right time. I expect Gene group will offload it’s remaining shares at the end of the term but N+1 Singer will have no problem placing them.

I expect more news in the future on how the PRC distribution moves forward but I suspect the numbers haven’t been large enough, due to focus, to be of concern.

For now it looks like the absolute priority is US listing and sales and we are another step closer.

As for the SP, well atm the market doesn’t know quite how to value us and the SP is pretty volatile due to liquidity. If you can add at these levels I am pretty convinced we will be well north of 2500 in a few months time.

Usual caveats

Trek

I agree I sold out here ages ago. Cash burn due to pay and H2 revenue bias meant they need to raise. Why on earth they haven’t done it already is ridiculous. They could have got away with a much higher SP. IMO when the raise is out the way then investors will return.

It’s not so much what you raise it’s what you do with it. Companies list on AIM to access capital we are therefore not surprised when they do. We are very surprised when we think they should and they don’t!

Usual caveats

Trek

Just got in - can’t believe the geo hasn’t been mentioned...

Rift Valley

https://images.app.goo.gl/gJhF4T8LV3Enwest6

Faulted anticline traps, sediment, fault or salt seal

https://images.app.goo.gl/BuGJRscjdnnHCAu27

I expect ours is the fault trap in this pick but with stacked targets down along the fault. There are likely different types of traps along the Rift Valley depending on stresses. The anticlines eventually fracture over years. Gravity takes the gas to the top of the trap.

https://images.app.goo.gl/sS7TsvK7EHEayFMG8

We have Stacked 3 way faults.

Well defined traditional traps. Proven technology to extrapolate helium. DME are already doing it!

We know there is helium from seeps and we know there are unlikely to be HC’s from previous drills!

The market absolutely gets this. A normal 3 way fault is very likely to have a seal, very bullish!

I posted before I expected a delay but not due to this wow!

Usual caveats

Trek

Here you go ST,

It’s 3% then a whole % change thereafter. Next working day notice of crossing

For Non Uk issuers it’s 5% then a whole % there after. 5 working days of notice...

From FCA handbook....DTR 5.1.2 sub para 1

“(1) reaches, exceeds or falls below 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% and each 1% threshold thereafter up to 100% (or in the case of a non-UK issuer on the basis of thresholds at 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 50% and 75%) as a result of an acquisition or disposal of shares or financial instruments falling within DTR 5.3.1 R“

https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/

Trek

Gosh people go on about twitter as if it has authority. Like if it’s on Twitter it must be true...

You only have to look at the latest company presentation....

A clue in the title.

‘Growth through exploration and acquisition’

And in the opening slides..

“Active programme for new acquisitions. Ambitions to be a high-growth diversified player in the copper space”

Or more specifically slide 32...

“Objective, to find at least one deal within the next few months”

Or slide 34...

“Chesterfield has demonstrated its ambitions to grow. Potential for growth both from exploration success, and via new acquisitions”

Mmm I think we’ll propose an acquisition by the end of August....

Tweet! Tweet! Lol!

If I could be bothered with a Twitter account... but I refuse and not just for 4 days!

Trek

Here you go D-German,

I ask google rather than Mrs Trek but fwiw she said I can let HE1 ride if I derisk elsewhere. I didn't think of that one!

“How do Geologists Risk Oil and Gas Prospects?

Hydrocarbon exploration is a risky business. Oil and gas companies risk billions of dollars each year in trying to find new resources. In general only about 40% of exploration wells find hydrocarbons and only about 30% of exploration wells lead to potentially commercial discoveries. In frontier basins only about 10 to 15% of wells find hydrocarbons with less than 10% being commercial. The successful wells can lead to large earnings in the future which more than make up for the losses from dry holes over a period of time providing the company has a large enough portfolio of opportunities. As somebody who is into horse racing told me “it is like being given 10-1 odds on a 3-1 horse”.

What are the factors that determine if a well is a success or a dry hole?

The five elements of a petroleum field.

All of these elements must work in order to have a discovery, if a single element fails then we have a dry hole. Risking is done by multiplying the estimated probabilities of the presence and effectiveness of these five elements. The probabilities are estimated as a decimal where P =1.0 is certain and P =0 is not possible.

COS (chance of success) = Source * Migration * Reservoir*Trap*Seal”

There’s more on the link and a nice Venn diagram to explain...

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-do-geologists-risk-oil-gas-prospects-alan-foum

PS I took +2 bags out of SNG having averaged up gradually from 30p but I didn’t back the placing as I thought it was expensive. Sold a load around £2.12 and gradually sold back down but am letting the rest ride now. Left an average in there now of £1.47 on a small position so just switching off.

Have been averaging up here though at these prices!

Usual caveats

Trek

A good interview thanks for posting. Going into commercial production with an exploration upside. That is pretty good. It should turbo charge the share price from the orphan period to commercial and then add in some more high grades!

I note the interviewer stayed away from the awkward questions that we ask here but I now think this one has turned a corner and we will soon be back to that 130-140 range.

I would not be surprised to see a bid in H2. This SP level is very vulnerable. It’s a safe geo, funded, has proven resources, but imo significantly undervalued with little risk from here.

I wish I could buy more at this level but fully invested for now. However, if I get an opportunity I will flip some others into PUR.

Usual caveats

Trek

All is not lost and it’s the weekend!

Enjoy!

https://youtu.be/XKPmtbCmkE4

Trek

Don’t risk trading it though!

https://youtu.be/2kDAdGkZgGo

Trek

You can always try trading.....lol!

https://youtu.be/2kDAdGkZgGo

I have experienced that trampoline!

Well done to those that picked up a few HE1’s - 100% up now!

And well done to all the diamond hands here!

ATB

Trek

£3 soon!

Sorry this is not a perfect buying opportunity. It’s a lesson!

For transparency I still have my core holdings and I maintain my core reasons to hold.

But that’s the lowest path of resistance, my rose tinted glasses if you like..

One cannot ignore this market reaction!

It has really knocked the wind out of how I understand how value should be attributed to a company, this company again!

This last RNS is what I interpreted as good, accretive news; the data is significant because it is scalable and as watertight as possible. It sets a pathway and derisks our product and other data. Data rules ok!

However, that data has been exploited disproportionately due to its lack of scale even though that (size) was known upfront. The market has also taken the view that news now means a long wait until the next news!

So it becomes a sell the news play because the view is the next news is not immediate! Then eventually there will be buyers again. Hence a trading opportunity!

I added to my trading pot today on the news then the same day sold because I’d got it wrong, but my sell means I can now buy more shares than my initial buy!

That trading activity is probably replicated many times over and probably sums up where we are but the main event is yet to follow!

Don’t miss it!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Bunsa,....

“Am I correct in my understanding that the Hannam research is paid for by HE1? Do HE1 provide all the information too.? Cheers.”

............

You should be. That’s good research!

I posted earlier...

“HE1 has also been picked by the House Broker so treat appropriately....

“Valuation: almost 15x upside on an unrisked basis; peers +650% over last year.

In our base case scenario, we use a helium price of US$250/mcf long-term flat from 2021 and a 14% discount rate from 1/1/2021. Our risked NAV is 11p/sh, which implies ~50% upside from the current share price. On an unrisked basis, we have a NAV of £1.04/sh or almost 15x upside. Further to this are the follow-on prospects that are not included in our NAV and its other exploration areas. Helium focused E&P companies, especially those akin to Helium One that focus on primary helium have seen their shares rise by >650% over the last year, demonstrating the market’s interest in the helium sector.”

http://www.helium-one.com/analyst-research/“

Note same reservations. ‘Treat appropriately’. That advice stands.

But for balance if they didn’t pay the house broker there’d be no report. The house broker depends on payments but clients want balance.

All said treat appropriately. Trust no one not even my post history and I like to help! or at least that my intentions! DYOR!

Trek

Hi Noob,

Yes and I agree with your earlier posts on the subject, all of which I have read. DME have identified salt traps, as you know our later three (4) drill targets are synonymous but the anticlines also provide similar opportunities for seals. Page 22 from Hannam from memory. The source remains the same for both geo’s, depleting thorium and uranium usually found in Rift valleys due to past tectonics.

Whilst DME geo and HE1 geo are not identical twins, traps and topography vary the source is the same.

The key learning is technically production is possible. Don’t (BB) underestimate that. It means that the technology today can extrapolate trapped Helium in commercial quantities. That imo is more significant that whether it’s anticline or salt seals. I mean Helium is used for leak detection it’s a frigging Houdini gas!

The fact that DME can tank the stuff and sell it commercially with a 10 bag SP increase is absolutely key!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi noob,

Just on the three drills, correct, but they are also targeting stacked traps. So if you look at Kasuka, Page 21 you can see 1 drill could potentially be hitting 4 traps. Similar to layered thrust sheets in O&G.

The stacking together with the seeps is a strong indication of sealing. Think of it like a champagne fountain.

You have a pyramid of flutes and the groom pours champagne into the top one and it fills all the glasses. Some of the champagne spills either into another glass, trap, or spills onto the table, seeps. It’s just an upside down version on a smaller scale but it means 1 drill is targeting multiple traps. So our 3 drills could be like 8 or more goes!

https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1funjk8-Helium_One_Initiation_note_Final_14_Dec_2020_RB2.pdf

Trek

I sold those I bought today during the call. The SP turned nasty. I figured I would be able to get them back later cheaper so took a short term hit!

Have kept my core holding here though as I don’t want to be completely out. News could still land at any point.

Gosh so frustrating this one! I still think the news was good and we have more derisked data but one can’t completely ignore the market. Will wait for the price to settle and top up later.

Like Axe so many opportunities elsewhere don’t want it all tied up. I guess that is also a contributory factor for the SP drop as no doubt others did the same and that is not a deramp it’s just a factor of AIM.

Trek

Hi ST,

The DTR5 is for disclosure over 3% next working day or 5% within 5 working days for uk and non uk holders respectively. Thereafter each full 1% of crossing.

https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/

So I doubt it’s one buyer as they would have had to notice by now. Some don’t play by the rules though! Like Acacia whom I reported twice!

Given the risk/rewards here I would expect lots of buyers at several million holdings.

The trade volumes are high but lots of ‘small’ trades do indicate order filling, balancing across books.

+20p finish today heading into news bodes very well.

Remember BPC +200m mcap prior to spud! And no where near the ops or financial diligence of these guys!

+34p when we start drilling is not out of the question. Just a few weeks to wait!

Usual caveats

Trek

Guys,

Just skipped through the BB re the sell. It’s not all a sell a percentage is re-calibrated from the dilution.

Box 2 on the TR1 has an ‘x’

“An event changing the breakdown of voting rights”

They previously held 4.26% and have sold 4,291,300 leaving them 2.83%. Not surprising given the rise.

However, imo one has to look at the bigger picture. Firstly the SP has risen with institutional selling, managing risk. Oberon also reduced. Both still hold a number of shares. For sure they may still be reducing but they haven’t ‘dumped’ their holdings. There are plenty of new buyers.

Furthermore, look at the lock-in arrangements. 18.76% (pre dilution) locked in BEYOND the drilling. That is a massive endorsement!

Section 20 page 42

20. LOCK-IN AND ORDERLY MARKET ARRANGEMENTS
Immediately following Admission, the Locked-in Shareholders, being the Directors, Proposed Director and PDMR’s, will be interested in an aggregate of 17,574,318 Ordinary Shares representing approximately 3.52 per cent. of the Enlarged Issued Share Capital of the Company. The Locked-in Shareholders have entered into lock-in agreements pursuant to which (subject to certain limited exceptions) they have undertaken not to dispose of any interest they hold in Ordinary Shares for 12 months following Admission (save in certain limited circumstances) and thereafter, for a further period of 12 months, only to effect disposals of their Ordinary Shares through Peterhouse or Pello (or the brokers for the time being of the Company) to assist in the maintenance of an orderly market in the Ordinary Shares.

In addition, certain Shareholders holding a total of 93,209,582 Ordinary Shares representing approximately 18.76 per cent. of the Enlarged Issued Share Capital of the Company have entered into orderly market arrangements with the Company, Beaumont Cornish, Peterhouse and Pello whereby they have agreed only to effect disposals of their Ordinary Shares through Peterhouse or Pello (or the brokers for the time being of the Company) for a period of 12 months from Admission to assist in the maintenance of an orderly market in the Ordinary Shares.

A summary of the principal terms of such agreements is set out in paragraph 13.8 of Part VI of this document.

http://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/259989-Project-Apollo-CLN-reduced-memory-Final-13.11.20.pdf

Trek

Just bought back in. Know the story and did well here before was just waiting for a price. With drilling underway and funding more comfortably holding now. I don’t think 10p will give. It’s been purgatory on the sidelines but have done ok elsewhere and looking to tip more in if this price holds.

Terra are the best and those aeromags coupled with such an extensive drilling campaign should yield some decent targets. I felt the SP had over run news now news has overrun the SP! Some catching back up to do one hopes!

Trek

Me to at 153.44.

Sometimes you have to follow you gut instinct and not a SP response. There are many reasons for the SP not to have responded like, forced seller, MM’s holding price down, sleepy BH weekend. If it went straight to 180 the irony is there’d probably be more buying momentum!

All that aside. This is about data. These results are more positive data. That has value and derisks our case. Hence my gut reaction is to increase my exposure here as I see it the risk now is to the upside from 200p and much less likely to go below 140. Remember, we are still well below the placing price after this data, incredible!

Usual caveats

Trek