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For severe breathlessness- this is oh so significant...

“those treated with SNG001 (n=33) were 3.41 times more likely to recover than those on placebo (n=36) (HR 3.41 [95% confidence interval 1.47- 7.94], p=0.004).”

It really bodes well or even derisks the next set(s) of results but apart from safety and efficacy which we ‘already knew’ it’s that it can be successfully administered at home.

We really need this out there. The combined trial results give enough safety data to show the benefits to humanity. Those health services like in India that are aware of SNG and are under severe pressure should be pulling this therapeutic from us in parallel to further trials.

I expect RM would have or will soon be disclosing these results. It’s ‘their red tape’ their time to act.

Trek

Recent earlier post...risks geology.

From Hannam....

“Migration

There needs to be a thermal release of the helium produced in ancient deep crust and in Rukwa this is caused by the crust ripping apart due to a mantle plume (upwelling of abnormally hot rock) underneath East Africa. This is exceedingly rare, which is why it is unusual to find large primary helium deposits globally. This rifting and associated magmatism focuses the flow to the near-surface along major basement faults. Helium and nitrogen-rich water is thought to flow along fault and fracture zones. Numerous thermal springs release bubbles of helium and nitrogen through surface seepages, indicating migration along major fault zones.

Reservoir

There are suitable reservoirs at multiple stratigraphic levels that have the capability to hold helium with good porosity. The sandstone reservoirs have been proven by the two wells drilled in 3 stratigraphic levels: the Lake Bed Formation, Red Sandstone Group and Karoo Super Group. The basin is dominated by sand (i.e. potential reservoirs) with shales (potential seals) more sparsely distributed.

Seal

The two historic (dry) petroleum exploration wells in the Rukwa Basin demonstrate stratigraphy with effective seal capacity. Additionally, bentonitic tuff beds described in the Lake Bed Formation and Red Sandstone Group have the potential for high-quality seals. Seals are present within and at the top of the Karoo section as evidenced by the Ivuna-1 well. Observed seismic amplitude anomalies are conformable to structural highs may be related to gas effect in the rock, in which case effective seal is demonstrated although well data is required to confirm this relationship.

Trap

Migration can be halted by seals or traps. If trapping structures are present on the migration pathway, a gas phase can accumulate. The trap will be filled with helium-rich gas until full and then spill. The excess spilt fraction if not trapped further up in the system will escape at surface seeps.

Helium can be trapped at the top of the Red Sandstone by lacustrine shales at the base of the Lake Beds and anywhere within alternating sand/ shales throughout the Lake Bed sequence. The traps can be identified using seismic data. In the Karoo play, the dominant trapping geometry is rotated extensional fault blocks creating 3-way dip closures with fault seal in the 4th direction. The trapping style within the Lake Bed play is more varied than for the Karoo: there are gentle 3-way closures against faults as tested by the Ivuna-1 well and minor inversion structures, low relief 4-way traps, stacked low-relief 3-way traps against the fault. Stratigraphic trapping may also be present within the rift.

Trek

Earlier post pros & con He price...

He1 price

Re: Helium price and increase in supply knocking price down

We don’t know; we can only look to the past for clues and it appears that the recent amelioration in supply with the passing of the helium balloon fad and improvements in Qatar’s output did not result in a reduction in price. Demand was still there albeit matched.

DM used the term ‘swing producer’. That means we will have the ability to dictate costs. A bit like OPEC, especially pre-shale.

Now you have to remember that there aren’t many other producers and the US has shut exports to protect a sovereign supply. We could sell cheap to put others out of business, but then imo the smart move is to let others set the price according to their breakevens. That makes us hugely profitable and with a reliable supply at volume. Play the long game, they will dry up. We have beyond 25 years of capacity and taking a less confrontational approach means we make good money for longer with the full knowledge that we could pull the rug whenever we choose. Assuming we produce obviously.

These older articles may help...

Sept 19

“There's no central wholesale price for the gas, because it is not traded on global markets.

Phil Kornbluth, the founder of Kornbluth Helium Consulting, which advises clients on commercial aspects of the global helium business, says the "price has gone up an awful lot in a short space of time".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49715838

June 20

‘But prices in many cases have defied the laws of supply and demand, according to users. Alexander Blumenfeld, an analytical instrumentation supervisor at the University of Idaho, says his cost has more than doubled in the past year, to $35 per liter. Joseph Dumais, a chemist at Boise State University in Idaho, says two suppliers recently quoted a price of $3800 for a 100-liter dewar of liquid helium, including shipping—more than double the $1460 he paid last summer, when supplies were tight. ‘

https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.6.2.20200605a/full/

These articles do not take into account China’s ambition to double MRI scanners, silicon wafer production or SpaceX. HE1 will be a ‘tier 1’ frontier battlefield! I know it! I trust my research I just hope the price drifts before 6th Apr.

Ps Good posts Noob on timelines.

Usual caveats

Trek

Earlier post...

Post 1

Helium 1 for newbies...

Did you know know that cryogenic refrigerators, used to transport vaccines at ultra cold temperatures use helium!

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/01/20/2161616/0/en/Helium-Global-Market-Report-2020-30-COVID-19-Impact-And-Recovery-A-Helium-Market-Overview-By-The-Business-Research-Company.html

But that was not my reason to buy. It’s the scarcity and the expense of current production. It’s a by product of gas processing (95%)and natural occurrences (5%!) are small. The main producers are in the USA, that have all but stopped exporting to protect a sovereign supply and Canada where there are few naturally producing helium wells some at 2% proof. Some in Africa but nothing anywhere in the world on the scale and purity of what is in Tanzania. The purity is key. It’s at 10% in the Tanzania helium springs. They have been known about since 1956.

I don’t know how much helium is in China but what is axiomatic is China are an exporter of tech. They build things white and electronic on scale. Helium cannot be manufactured and it’s in lots of electronics and it’s a finite resource. China would be a predator if this comes off and the CEO , in another interview on Vox, I think, made it clear they wanna prove up and sell. Well I know ones mind can change accordingly so we’ll have to see.

It’s a qualified ‘if’ but I think it’s pretty nailed on that the resource is there in productive quantities. The company have put in 5 years of work prior to IPO.

This is an article from Bloomberg a 5 min skip read..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-08-28/we-re-running-out-of-helium-and-helium-one-might-have-a-fix

If you are suitably teed up it’s worth listening to this amazing video with the CEO who incidentally has now moved house to Tanzania to be next to the project!

http://www.helium-one.com/presentations/

HE1 was top share pick by Zak Mir at sharetalk. It’s where I got the idea and researched it.

https://www.share-talk.com/top-twenty-the-stocks-of-the-year-for-2021-review-2-2/#gs.ssd6px

Earlier Post....

Post 2

HE1 has also been picked by the House Broker so treat appropriately....

“Valuation: almost 15x upside on an unrisked basis; peers +650% over last year.

In our base case scenario, we use a helium price of US$250/mcf long-term flat from 2021 and a 14% discount rate from 1/1/2021. Our risked NAV is 11p/sh, which implies ~50% upside from the current share price. On an unrisked basis, we have a NAV of £1.04/sh or almost 15x upside. Further to this are the follow-on prospects that are not included in our NAV and its other exploration areas. Helium focused E&P companies, especially those akin to Helium One that focus on primary helium have seen their shares rise by >650% over the last year, demonstrating the market’s interest in the helium sector.”
http://www.helium-one.com/analyst-research/

More recently Liberum who agree with the ROCE of just over 1 year and then a 92% FCF! The numbers are astounding! That’s like £48m a year after taxes, royalties and capex!

And THE DAILY MAIL! Lol!

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-9026567/SMALL-CAP-SHARE-IDEAS-Helium-One.html

As with many resource companies the first hurdle is funding. They only IPO’d in December raising £6m at 2.84p so are funded for the first year. However, only 42% of the company was floated. The rest remains in private hands. There are also warrants and options which add to around a further 10% dilution but they have a 1 year lock in and orderly market trading conditions through the broker. There is a 3 year release program for some. It’s in the prospectus...

http://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/259989-Project-Apollo-CLN-reduced-memory-Final-13.11.20.pdf

This short 4min vid explains the ops timeline

Permitting has been completed. The EIAS submission was RNS’s for the project so it was a surprise to hear it’s done. You can’t have permits without the environmentals first. They should have RNSd that they have received the EP’s. That’s sloppy!

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/940566/helium-one-seeing-big-advancements-on-their-rukwa-project-in-tanzania-940566.html

We know from the video that contract negotiations are underway and the seismic equipment should be there now. Then there will the contract signature, spud, drilling ops etc

In tandem to Rukwa they will also be processing the other wells. Each well cost $500-$1m.

So lots of newsflow without drilling anything!

If they go it alone they will need $50m for the first year. That’s not a lot given the anticipated return and helium prices could be much higher!

This is a high risk project but you can derisk holdings along the way. There’s bound to be snags but getting in early at a low SP could offer a cushion.

There’s lots of ‘big money’ already in!

Usual caveats.

Trek

With double and now triple mutations and no proof of vax efficacy against these new variants they will need a therapeutic....

“On April 22nd, India reported 314,835 new COVID-19 cases — a single-day world record. As the recent surge of cases in this country captured global attention, sequence sampling shows that new viral variants are likely behind the worrying situation.

The B.1.617 variant (aka double mutant) is characterized by two mutations, E484Q and L452R, known to be associated with increased infectivity and immune escape. These two mutations have been separately identified on other SARS-CoV-2 strains, but their coexistence on the same virus is unprecedented and highly concerning. First identified in Oct. 2020, this variant is reported to be responsible for the deadly spread of cases in Maharashtra and other states this month.

Another variant found to be circulating in Bengal, B.1.618 (aka triple mutant), is suspected to have evolved from existing double mutations and contains V382L in its spike in addition to E484Q and L452R. One thing to clarify though is that the name “double mutant” and “triple mutant” are not exactly appropriate, as these new strains have many more defining mutations on the spike protein.

According to GISAID Database, B.1.617 has been spotted in 18 countries over the world. In face of the new threats, researchers are yet to establish the link between the mutations, clinical outcomes and vaccine efficacy. India has approved 3 vaccines as part of its ongoing vaccination program: Covaxin developed by Bharat Biotech; Covishield developed by Oxford-Astrazeneca; and the recently approved Russian made Sputnik V vaccine. So far, there are encouraging but very preliminary result that Covishield vaccines offer protection against the double mutant variant.”

https://acrobiosystems.com.cn/A1263-How-dangerous-is-the-Indian-double-mutant-of-SARS-CoV-2-.html?utm_source=newsmedical&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=sars-cov-2&utm_content=mutants&utm_term=newsmedical

Usual caveats

Trek

The vax scientists are going to need to be on their game with the evolution of double and now triple mutations to which they have not yet proven efficacy. The virus is evolving very quickly. The good thing (not choice words) is that at least Affimers can be developed in 4weeks and once manufacturing is in place it’ll be a ‘straightforward’ upgrade...

“On April 22nd, India reported 314,835 new COVID-19 cases — a single-day world record. As the recent surge of cases in this country captured global attention, sequence sampling shows that new viral variants are likely behind the worrying situation.

The B.1.617 variant (aka double mutant) is characterized by two mutations, E484Q and L452R, known to be associated with increased infectivity and immune escape. These two mutations have been separately identified on other SARS-CoV-2 strains, but their coexistence on the same virus is unprecedented and highly concerning. First identified in Oct. 2020, this variant is reported to be responsible for the deadly spread of cases in Maharashtra and other states this month.

Another variant found to be circulating in Bengal, B.1.618 (aka triple mutant), is suspected to have evolved from existing double mutations and contains V382L in its spike in addition to E484Q and L452R. One thing to clarify though is that the name “double mutant” and “triple mutant” are not exactly appropriate, as these new strains have many more defining mutations on the spike protein.

According to GISAID Database, B.1.617 has been spotted in 18 countries over the world. In face of the new threats, researchers are yet to establish the link between the mutations, clinical outcomes and vaccine efficacy. India has approved 3 vaccines as part of its ongoing vaccination program: Covaxin developed by Bharat Biotech; Covishield developed by Oxford-Astrazeneca; and the recently approved Russian made Sputnik V vaccine. So far, there are encouraging but very preliminary result that Covishield vaccines offer protection against the double mutant variant.”

https://acrobiosystems.com.cn/A1263-How-dangerous-is-the-Indian-double-mutant-of-SARS-CoV-2-.html?utm_source=newsmedical&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=sars-cov-2&utm_content=mutants&utm_term=newsmedical

Usual caveats

Trek

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