RE: RM8 Apr 2021 21:31
Don’t post here much anymore as I have made my mind up to stick.
Have had a quick glance at the BB and must say bar a few obvious rampers the feedback on the interview has been very balanced and constructively critical.
For my two pence, RM was clear that SNG001 needed ‘a fire to put out’ and performed better in those circumstances. The upside over placebo over time (we know this anyway) is pretty much unprecedented for a therapeutic!
A key data point was the 10 day delay from diagnosis to administration, and SNG001 still achieves efficacy and safety! That game changing fact ‘continues’ and was recognised by the panel.
That’s something that hasn’t been posted. Look at how the panel members respond to RM. IMO he was king, fully clothed!
Now for the balance, so you can save your ticks!!
The home trial DATA is clearly vulnerable v placebo in terms of differentiation.
I state this based on my interpretation of how RM was referring to ‘the fires’. I don’t see there being a fire to put out. Even accounting for the selection criterion imo it will be difficult to garner the same statistical differentiation as the P2 trial in hospitalised pts.
The home trial (my view) was ostensibly in place to mitigate against late SNG001 drug administration. Remember concerns about ACE2 up regulation following delayed INF-b infiltration and how that was put forward in the New Scientist article as inducing the cytokine storm!
So Home Trials was a hedge. Smart then. The market may not view it as smart now. Don’t make it a wrong choice. Just that AIM wants it all ways and can be brutal as well as rewarding!
So the obvious question is, what about the SP.
Well fwiw, my view is it depends on the order of newsflow. ACTIV-2 first, assuming successful, which is what I am backing and you can have your ‘boom!’
Home trial first, it then depends on results but I get the feeling that they will be inconclusive but importantly safety will hold up. Don’t underestimate that! However, imo SP will likely take a knock even though the benefits will be clearly defined, but not statistically proven. If that makes sense.
My plan. FWIW. If the home trial results leads to a SP hit with SAFETY I will more than double down.
If the ACTIV-2 comes through first you won’t be able to buy anyway.
If all are negative well one should never be exposed beyond acceptable losses. It would be remiss of me to say otherwise!
But amongst it all I like that RM doesn’t seemed to bothered by the SP now he seems to have an objective in mind and that objective will imo deliver ultimate value.
Usual caveats
Trek
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