Member Info for TrekMadone

I remember posting the sales metrics a while back that showed how we could easily get to £1bn mcap.

I am starting to loose faith now. Probably the best time to buy for the contrarians!

But sitting back I see UK plc using up whatever crap chinese tests they have and that now cases are dropping why would they want to scale in a sovereign test. There are 425 authorised tests listed on the Gov website. Let the private sector deal.

Do they want to enter in a contract for hundred of millions of £’s more given our dire finances.

Would a factory in Wales and an endless flow of Innova tests suit better or will they at long last turn to AVCT? Are ABDX/ODX/mologic concerned and now filling manufacturing space with o5her tests? Things are no longer as clear, not that they ever were but it seemed we had more hope a month ago!

The narrative is becoming clear, vax and therapeutic. Acceptable mortality rates, live with covid and those that refuse the vax; well that’s fine and rightly or wrongly they will just find themselves on the fringe of society.

Note the media picking up on every fatality that refused a vax. Oh, for balance they seldom mention the fatalities that were vaxed unless they are over 80!!

I expect we will have some news tomorrow. Thursdays is a favoured RNS day. European sales, hopefully and a little AV6000 sweetener but will it equal a line of sight to our current mcap even allowing for our healthy cash position.

This is a very brutal market where a hint of underperformance is disproportionately punished. One would think with a +50% drop and a placing cushion at 120 it’s all in the price.

Well not long to find out now.

Trek

Just added this to my watchlist as tipped over on ONC. Why the sudden drop on no RNS?

TIA

Trek

Anyone else get the feeling things are starting to turn.

1.125p warrant conversion decision by 30th. Most should have converted by now and by the look of the SP many probably flipped. 2.2p next hurdle although why would you take part in the placing and then sell after all this work.

The next conversions are options which expire 24th Feb 22 so there is no pressure on converting any for a some time. Next warrants are due 16th June 22, a year.

Multi-purpose rig due in Q4 and confident in getting together another crew.

Contractors drilling at Creswick

Confidence around new licenses.

Assays building a picture, more results to come and a constant flow of data near term.

Cash.

Just need a little luck now, bit of sentiment, some good results build a JV case and no reason why we can’t claw our way back through 2p for starters.

I think peeps will be happier then and once we get more assays momentum will build and we can get to new trading level. At least it’s in our hands!

Trek

Ah blocklisting date. That makes sense. I was trawling through my spreadsheet trying to find any others that were due! Lol!

Trek

Hi cashking,

These were part of the placing 18 July 2018 RNS, 92857143 warrants were issued at 1.125p with an expiry of 30th July 21. The expiry date was clarified in the 9th July 2020 RNS. Interesting they had a 5p VWAP, that would have been nice!

The Feb blocklisting allows for 32.745m to be allocated. We can assume that they will or have been taken up/sold, I can’t see these being lapsed as they are in the money. It didn’t take us long to get through the Shen conversions and that was 55m albeit the SP was heading north then. It shouldn’t take long to clear and may be done by now. I have bought 500k today! Lol!

I don’t have any due for 12th August? Let me know what you have and I will compare to my tracker.

Trek

Your call johny,

And I have no idea about your finances but as you were ok to stay in up until that tweet why didn’t you just take out your investment or even sell half which is a tidy profit and ride half.

If it goes belly up at least with cash you can start again once it settles or you could just buy something else.

If it rockets well at least you have some investment.

Still each to their own.

Ps someone mentioned volumes, well this share does move disproportionately on low volumes same as all the others. I remember from seeing just a handful of trades some days and a 10% rise or fall.

Trek

£5

£50m mcap, Likely still have +£22m in cash.

Over interim 6 months £800k positive on £1.5m of revs with assets of £88m.

Fo sure regular newsflow is not a strong point here given such a diverse pf and so much going on but that doesn’t explain why it’s so cheap.

Platypus may indeed trigger a rerate.

I just revisited my numbers as I am a recent investor who’s now slightly down but I can’t see it staying in the doldrums much longer. Even a £100m mcap would make some sense!

This market has gone mad with some valuations.

Trek

Just added 150k and google went from 1.58 to 1.65 in an instant! This share is moving on very low volumes atm. Probably why near 7% spread.

Anyways that’s me done for today!

Trek

Interesting I can get a quote to sell 1.2m at 1.58. That’s the same price as to sell 100k shares.

Anything over 500k to buy is NT, to buy atm is 1.6475. Rubbish spread but good liquidity.

Not been able to sell at scale here for a while.

She is turning imo.

Trek

‘....AND DISCOVERY’

Very strange choice of words. Could have said completing the process of exploration and left it at that but oh no DM is very confident again.

Gosh I hope so. Whilst I am trying to prepare for any surprises it would be amazing if the first drill comes in!

Good luck with counting all those pipes! Lol!

Trek

£5

Defo been put back but not really surprised given how many counties are involved and the stresses many health services have been under.

Get it done before winter will be a good result. Covid unfortunately isn’t going anywhere if anything it will gradually unlock the vax code. Clever thing viruses.

Trek

Visible mineralisation up to 34m thick = “Significant drilling results at Big One Deposit” RNS

visible mineralisation up to 26m thick = “Big one deposit update” RNS.... with 9% Cu.

Those 8m are the difference. Let’s hope we have a big shallow area which will make it economically viable to mine. A mine is needed to become a mid tier copper company.

Trek

Don’t forget, we’ll we can’t! But our mcap is down over £200m in a matter of months! That is a significant adjustment.

I added today and now have my average below the last placing so sat much more comfortably now but as a new buyer this has to be a pretty good opportunity.

Trek

Hi diversified,

‘I am confused, If you have no cash to trade how can you then invest heavily if it drops?’

My finances are a nightmare atm!

I am trying to crystallise profits to help the kids buy properties but due to the incompetence of others I have cash in no mans land atm. It’s very boring but at least this game is a means to an end and once I/we secure those properties I will be able to concentrate properly. Just got that and loads of other serious stuff atm. So I am literally juggling house deposits!!!

We are all human beings and when you look under the hood you will be surprised at what you find, well actually you shouldn’t be surprised else you are not a human being!

So to answer your question I will rebalance from elsewhere to HE1. I will use charts, trading volume and news to time my buy(s). There I’m a heretic at least the kids would have benefitted!

I have prophesy about HE1 reaching £5 and I have a list of things to do when it does. You see ticking the kids off along the way is part of it but there is more to come....

Trek

£5

Hi Joshwaa,

Good challenge, gets peeps thinking. I like that!

Love it, analytics and procrastinations on future trajectory of SP and MM Machiavellian behaviours as posted before. All the soap opera and shenanigans of a mega drill approaching TD!

I’ve sat through a few now. Some I got right or rather lucky and some I have completely been caught out!

For all those purporters of I only invest what I am prepared to loose. Yeah right! There are only a few of us here in the DYOR lunatic clinic the rest of you had better read Scott’s last post coz tbh that is a distinct possibility!

Probably the best post since the side track!!

You see when we lost the string it showed how complex this drill is. They recovered, awesome! DM fair play went to site and they got plan b up and running. It’s normal drilling ops!

But since then meterage has been slow. Ghostly shiver icon! Now investors have to decide is the well lost. It’s so easy to break the skin on these drills so there is nothing to case to.

Or have they pulled it off with the side track. I do get how successful sidetracks are over the average in a number of drills and I posted way back about the deflector and how much trust I had in Mitchell’s based previous data.

But?

The market (not ‘lth’s’) is now nervous because of the pace of drilling is so slooow! or is it because Oberon are selling their last 2.91% or whatever. No one has mentioned that yet!!

Remember the SP recovered to 21.6 from like 17.5p after the drill loss. It’s like gone back to that now.

HE1 is at a nervous juncture atm!

I am not turning negative or ramping a position. TBH If I had cash I would be trading this now coz if you are close you can hold half and trade half but Mrs Trek has told me to hold. So given my 10 bag or bust attitude I am doing what I have been told! Stick! (I am allowed to play elsewhere though! Just not at HE1! Lol!!!).

Let’s see what tomorrow/next week brings but tbh I would not be surprised either way and if anyone goes back to the beginning it was always the salt seals that were the likeliest drill successes.

Any drop here and I will be buying significantly as there’s helium ‘in them hills’ so I see a win either way.

An honest view but still game on! All very exciting now!

Trek

£5

Objective is to become a strategic resource. Never see full value from asset sales. Better to raise via equity at this low mcap. There will be no shortage of finance options on a discovery but let’s keep it all to ourselves!

+50 years of divi income worth more that the current mcap pa is a possibility.

Trek

£5

OT,

Hi Scott,

We also share HE1, I bought shortly after the IPO.

After a lot of DMOR I have picked up some PMG. We all know about TC’s legacy in this space!

Don’t know if you have given it another glance following it’s recent run.

Happy for you to post over there or not bother.

Good luck with your investments

Trek

Hi David,

How about keeping your % as is. AVCT fair value needs a contract imo. SNG, over valued or undervalued take your pick! But the phase three readout = mega pounds or pennies!

ONC is a genuine growth story. The SP pull back is not representative of its value but that’s how it goes.

I have balanced my risk biotech investments as I posted previously below. You gotta decide.

If you really wanna spanner in the works check out CCZ or CHF ( I have decent positions) copper plays! Electrification bla bla! Lol!

It’s all a game!

Trek

Hi David,

AgentB also mentioned a similar paradox investing wise regarding AVCT.

I honestly can’t advise. All I can say is in the case of AVCT if they land a substantial LFT contract(s) it will be possible to value the company more appropriately. They have just listed AV6000 on the clinical trial site but it (obviously) has a 2023 end date.

I held AVCT from 30p sold at 200p bought a nearly new decent car, got lambasted on the website for saying AVCT was then over valued and needed cash and then bought back at sub 100p after their raise! For clarity though I did also add on the CE RNS recently at like 280 as I thought at last! But sold as they dropped below support and have recently bought back at a 130 average but far fewer shares. Their mcap now is more representative but it could explode on the right news!

As for SNG, it’s been an unbelievable ride!

I really don’t want to bore this excellent BB but I will just say it’s been a rare share that keeps on giving. I took over 5 bags out and am now buying again. Risk money, like a do or die drill, for H2 and I will derisk as the SP hopefully ascends. Then in the same space there is DDDD I took out 4 bags and no longer hold! I have others and my fair share of losers!

Anyways, I hope that shows you what sort of investor I am. I have nothing to hide. Peeps may say I am a trader. Well we all trade, it’s just the time between buying and selling that seems to differentiate a trader from an investor. What is that exact cut off? Lol! and of course frequency. Sorry I get bored by so many Warren Buffet quotes. He wouldn’t even invest here! Lol!

So ONC. Well, you will unlikely see fireworks here because the market does not understand it. We do not have a divi metric or even anything like approaching that. The normal ROCE, ROI, NPV or for that matter even EBITDA metrics can become obsolete in a blink because the growth is so rapid.

So the question is how do we value a company that the market cannot.

One can be harsh on oneself by saying I got it wrong because I bought some shares at 220 and 200p, You see after the 180 placing and subsequent climb I thought the pull back to 200 was it!

Anyways I bought so many more on the dip like IPhone that my average is also now up significantly to 181. So I don’t have the answers but what I do have from my investing experience and conviction is that IMVHO ONC is one of the most promising low risk, high growth, British biotechs out there with one of the best management teams you will find.

Growing. Doing deals. USP. Worldwide presence. Cash favourable. Experienced and capable BoD. Niche market, moat. Contracts with majors. Govt grants. Evidence based databank. Recurring revenues. In no particular order I could go on!

That gives me reason to invest at below my £4 conservative valuation in less than 2 years.

Trek

Hi legal,

Good post,

I agree but exceptional circumstances or is that circuses which came up on my predictive text rule ok atm. Covid.

Trek