Member Info for TrekMadone

I am surprised valuation wise we are sub 50p! But then I also understand why we are priced at 29p.

See that’s the point. AIM/small/micro cap/fledgling main market is a high risk high reward space.

The primary reason for listing is to raise cash.

Why invest when there are risks, cash needed or any hint of uncertainty.

Investors have to pick the sweetspot and then adjust if needed. Hold and hug here doesn’t always win so you get trading.

Most investors try and derisk along the way. That’s sensible.

It’s a really unique market and then you factor in that there are always ‘people in the know’ long or short. Lifestyle execs. Orchestrated pump and dumps. That’s before you get to liquidity where market makers often have to post schemes (mifid2) to generate liquidity and use ridiculous spreads and you can begin to see why few make money here.

So when you say you’d be surprised to not to see 30p, well it’s only 1/2p below the ask but I know what you mean. However, I am learning not to be surprised.

Trust me I DMOR, look at my ONC posts, few post there, I do detail but as for a surprise. There are few surprises on AIM. Even my ARB from 4p to +£1 wasn’t a surprise, my TXP for 11p to 170p and now back to 85p isn’t a surprise or even ALU 280 to 180 and close at 220 in a blink in one day! Actually 2 hours! and that’s a decent company is no longer a surprise.

A takeover here well north of £1 with a SP of 25p likewise would not be a surprise. And I can tell ya if anything came in it would be a lock out. There would be no opportunity to buy a pending offer, vote. It will be done.

Enjoy the shakes, DYOR, work out your own valuations and don’t be surprised!

Hopefully that helps explain what we are up against!

Usual caveats

Trek

‘missed something’

Missed a lot. I could deramp IQAI loads if so inclined and anyone invested here should be able to do the same or you haven’t done your RA. But as for cash well, you are barking completely up the wrong tree as to how the company has been financed and will continue to be financed.

Look at 10th Dec RNS as a clue and by all means post any questions here thereafter.

If you just want cheaper entry, close to 8 is very good. Go in 50/50 just in case.

My average is now 9 but I made a sht load here on the last run up, sold and bought back.

You don’t have to hide your intentions, we all wanna make money and see this succeed. 50p is real!

Usual caveats

Trek

License application, the merits are covered on the Victoria Earth resources site

https://earthresources.vic.gov.au/licensing-approvals/mineral-licences/apply-for-an-exploration-licence/exploration-licence-application-kit#

Obvious question is what is the differentiator between other applicants and ECR... Ranking!

Based on....

* you are a ?t and proper person to hold a licence; (TICK FOR ALL)
* that you have an appropriate program of work; and (TICK FOR ALL)
* that you are likely to be able to ?nance the proposed work and any rehabilitation. (TWO ASPECTS HERE, 1, FINANCE OF WORKS, TICK FOR ECR, DEFO NOT RRR IMO, I DON’T KNOW OTHERS WELL ENOUGH. 2, REHAB - LIKELY TICK FOR ALL AS INDEMNITY INS COVERS IT)
The department may also refer the application to other agencies for comment and advice of any land and heritage protection issues. (SO HAVE YOU DONE EIA, TICK FOR ALL)

This really should be a slam dunk for ECR because the authority wants to see the expo and ECR can demonstrate autonomy with not one but two drills. The second multi-rig can go at pace with RC, analyse with the pXRF and then use the Diamond drill to collect assays for core analysis.

The only hold up they have is lab time but even then with the ability to break down cores it can be done by UPS!

The cash position will not be the differentiator, others will evidence cash. Imo CB will (should) use those our two key differentiators, own drill and speed of assay returns. The rest TBH is BAU and you really shouldn’t be applying without a strong case in the other boxes.

Trek

Buying again!

Hi cashking,

My excel tracker has £1784394.69

Good to see we have same numbers.

Trek

“Off message Trek, but are you a keen cyclist and if you are, have you got one ?”

Yes and yes although I am much larger than back in the day! So spend more time on a GaryFisher MTB than on my road bike atm.

Trek

“(Alliance News) - Immunodiagnostics group Oncimmune Holdings PLC on Friday said it has signed an autoantibody profiling contract with Dana-Farber Cancer Institute.

Shares in Nottingham, England-based Oncimmune were up 5.6% to 179.50 pence each in London on Friday afternoon.

Dana-Farber is a clinical affiliate and research institute of Harvard Medical School and a cancer research organisation.

Under the agreement, Oncimmune will be utilising its proprietary biomarker discovery engine, SeroTag, to identify autoantibodies that can be predictive of patient response or associated with resistance to checkpoint inhibitors and chemotherapy.

In addition, SeroTag will be used for identifying autoantibodies that can be predictive of immune-related adverse events in response to treatment.

The project is scheduled to complete by the end of 2021.

"SeroTag is a high-throughput, multiplex, discovery technology based on Oncimmune's in-house protein library, one of the largest in the world, with a unique, ever-growing repository of disease data for indications such as autoimmune and infectious diseases as well as cancer," the company said.

By Amrit Sahota; newsroom@alliancenews.com

Copyright 2021 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.......”

I still don’t think the market gets this but many Pharma companies do.

Say you are going to run a trial with 1000 pts to target a new drug. Aside the usual age/sex/ethnicity/comorbidities etc how do you profile the pts that will likely have the correct immune response so that you can target therapies and save time on clinical trials?

That’s where SeroTag comes in. You compare the blood test to the databank and identify any adverse immune response in advance. So you can then streamline clinical trials deselecting known adverse responses which is better for patients and Pharma’s.

You can then use the databank to fine tune other permutations of this.

That’s about as simple as I can explain it. Each contract and possibly each test is revenue into ONC and it nets out saving Pharma’s lots of time and money.

With the biggest databank in the world which is ever growing and adding in covid now that’s why we have so many big Pharma’s on board. It would cost a fortune to replicate. Just outsource to the experts.

1100 clinical trials being run by Dana Farber. That is a massive vote of confidence to be let in on their books! More will follow.

Trek

“, as I understand it from the presentation gold has been found along the entire 21km, admittedly in varying densities. Is that your impression as well?”

Yes the results are typical of mineralisation in the Greenstone Belt. There is high, bonanza grades in the quartz in the BAM gold deposit typical of the wider Lamaune Gold Prospect but the grades in the Gabor ‘hanging wall’ are much lower. This probably contributed to the SP spike and then dip on the last drill as the east pit disappointed albeit there are wider factors at play across AIM in general.

All said over 1moz proven heading for more plus metals. SP manipulation is palpable across a lot of stocks as price drops on v low volumes to shake out holders. You just gotta pick a few ‘winners’ in this ‘opportunistic markets’ and hold your nerve!

Usual caveats

Trek

Mining license is a reinstatement of previously agreed authorisation based on increased copper footprint.

Trek

Zeus part 2

“Today’s news is evidence that new ImmunoINSIGHTS contracts are being won.

Oncimmune’s March 2021 £9m (gross) fundraise facilitated the expansion of the ImmunoINSIGHTS franchise, and is supporting an increase in analytical capacity, from c10,000 to c40,000 samples by Q1 FY2023. Laboratory and commercial operations are being expanded in Dortmund and the US respectively. On a broader basis, the company also reported that going forward ImmunoINSIGHTS sales would benefit from new contracts with Roche, its subsidiary Genentech, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and an undisclosed leading US-based global pharmaceutical company. Oncimmune expects that new ImmunoINSIGHTS contracts over FY2021 and Q1 FY2022 will likely constitute 50% of FY2022 revenue. Sales growth is evidenced by today’s news. With over 90% of ImmunoINSIGHTS revenue likely to be US-based, the company is considering building a duplicate US laboratory and hiring a US business development team to support its efforts in this geography. “

Zeus

Zeus... part 1

“New ImmunoINSIGHTS contract with Dana-Farber further validates offering and supports expected sales growth.

This morning Oncimmune announced a new contract with the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (Harvard Medical School affiliate based in Boston, US) whereby the latter will utilise Oncimmune’s proprietary SeroTagTM ‘biomarker discover engine’ to identify predictive patient responses to novel checkpoint inhibitor (CPI) based cancer therapies. As in the case of yesterday’s announcement (see our note Cutting edge COVID-19 research validates ImmunoINSIGHTS as a valuable research tool) this new deal further validates the commercial value of Oncimmune’s ImmunoINSIGHTS offering, although in this case the news is also indicative of additional revenue from a new deal. The news further supports our expectations of continuing revenue and earnings growth for the company. Our valuation and current forecasts are currently under review pending an update by a new analyst.

Dana-Farber is a world-leading centre of excellence in cancer research

The institute is an acclaimed global leader in pioneering cancer research, from preclinical investigations through to clinical trials. Employing nearly 5,000 staff it is ranked the number 3 cancer hospital in the world, oversees in excess of 1,100 clinical trials and enjoys extensive support in terms of Federal funding.

Checkpoint inhibitors are at the cutting edge of cancer therapy.

Therapies to be investigated include Merck’s Keytruda (pembrolizumab), Pfizer’s Opdivo (nivolumab), Roche/Genentech’s Tecentriq (atezolizumab) and Astrazeneca’s Imfinzi (durvalumab), which together generated combined 2021 sales of $26.6bn. The future commercial success of CPI sales will benefit greatly from better understanding of patient responses, and we hope that this work with Dana-Farber will facilitate further immune-oncology contracts with CPI companies, including those listed above. We note that Oncimmune already has a contract with an undisclosed US-based global pharmaceutical company working in this area.

N1+ Singer...

“ImmunoINSIGHTS win; COVID yesterday, cancer today.

Oncimmune has announced an autoantibody profiling contract with the prestigious DanaFarber Cancer Institute. The contract opens up ImmunoINSIGHTS autoantibody profiling service to a number of Dana-Farber led oncology studies. We estimate the contract win to have minimal initial financial value, but importantly it brings influence and provides a framework for future use amongst pharmaceutical sponsors. Consequently, we make no changes to our estimates (projected 66% CAGR FY’21-23 in ImmunoINSIGHTS revenues). Nevertheless, we believe that today’s news alongside yesterday’s pre-publication of findings in COVID-19, indicates that the importance of autoantibodies as a key biomarker class across multiple disease areas is growing. Oncimmune is well-positioned with its best-in-class profiling service to benefit from this growing recognition amongst the scientific community. Our last published intrinsic value was 273p, materially above the current share price, and our confidence continues to build in this growth strategy.“

Not sure about minimal financial value. There will be a profitable contract, also a foot in the door. Agree with spin offs

Trek

Wow! The RNS says it all! That is a huge deal. THE Dana-Faber Cancer Institute!

This will undoubtedly lead to others deals. When asked by peers in the profession which discovery engine they are using for autoantibody profiling? Peer reviews are published on 100’s of clinical trials and ONC will be there, in lights!

It’s the data that they go to and look at how the output is validated. What is the baseline. How was the response measured. ONC’s name and capabilities will be in the highest echelons of US cancer diagnostics!

I expect we will get some interviews next week if Adam has time. The guy is proving to be genius deal maker and great CEO. Pretty much the same esteem as I hold CF at ORPH.

Next I hope we have some progress on a US lab and also the cell surface screening tech. It may be that they now have that capacity as part of the increased testing capacity.

A lot has clearly happened since the last updates. This is another major US contract. There are now around 16 pending contracts across the world totalling about £11m. I think the Dana-Fabre one will prove much richer than some of the others.

We should get some news on NHS earlyCDT lung and Biodesix US sales soon and perhaps an update on the increase in the Dortmund lab capacity/capability.

Ignore the SP, well you know what I mean, DYOR and look ahead.

There will undoubtedly be another placing probably towards the end of ONC’s next year because the pace of growth and contract delivery is so huge. They can easily sustain ops costs from existing turnover but that is not what this company is about. Use of cash is accretive and revenues build off the back of it.

Each new deal adds to the moat and puts a barrier between us and a cheap takeover.

Add to that and most importantly our investment here is making a difference to people’s lives with next generation cancer diagnostics.

Well done Adam and team!

Enjoy the ride even if a little bumpy atm!

Usual caveats

Trek

You can’t group ONC with the covid testers. ONC is a wider spectral cancer diagnostic which so happens to fit covid and long covid and is part of UK lighthouse labs

I would group ONC closer to ERGO or ORPH but then ONC has contracts with NHS and 7 major Pharma’s and has worldwide presence. Yes US, Europe, Russia and all x soviet bloc, China & NHS. It’s streets ahead even of those others in deals and geographic coverage.

AVCT has the best LFD test but it’s not been widely tested. Just got CE. The oncology is early stage. But imo it is on the cusp on decent contracts. Remember there are 425 approved LFT’s on UK gov website but only Innova, a crp chinese test has contract at scale with UK,+£3bn! And yet the FDA have refused to use it as it’s unreliable and danger to health! Good old corrupt UK plc!

Then add in GDR a point of care test akin to PCR, waiting for sales, deal with Buker. Their portable test is 100% on S&S! It’s similar to NCYT but portable. NCYT provide PCR for Europe and UK. Again 100% accurate and the gold standard. GDR are running on fumes at moment. Even though they have US army contract for diagnostics and also revenue from hearing test from NHS. BC sales number could be hugely transformational.

NCYT has been first off the mark with their gold standard test. As all the sp is volatile but they have cash and huge contracts now but fell out with NHS.

You could also look at TTG they are manufacturing Virolens test for iAbra (not listed). It’s a 30 sec holographic turnstile test. That could be transformative for TTG who with IBM that provide software are exclusive manufacturers. MHRA approved but no manufacturing news yet on numbers, many deal are overseas. TTG do so much more though and the SP has risen without the Virolens news.

ABDX and ODX fit in the LFT space, as manufactures with also their own test. You could also hedge by buying CAR that manufacture the plastics used in medical grade LFT tests. You can buy now below director purchase price.

Then you have the therapeutics like HEMO, TILS, DDDD and SNG. The dark horse here is SNG waiting for a phase three readout. They are part of the US activ-2 trial, have been somewhat shunned by UK. News due in H2 and if the P3 shows statistical differentiation for their inhaled interferon Beta therapeutic then that would be a serious multi-bag. They proved it worked in a smaller Phase 2 trial.

I hold ONC, AVCT, ORPH, SNG, TTG, GDR currently weighted in that order. I have held and traded all the above bar ONC and ORPH that I just hold. Both are fantastic value atm. Even CF CEO at ORPH thinks so with a huge recent buy! But such is AIM the market atm it is pulling everything back doing a reset across the board ready for the next run up. That includes mining, metals, O&G and tech or it could be that everything is suddenly worth 45-65% less than recent SP highs!

Usual caveats

Trek

Part 2

“Existing contracts are being expanded and new contracts won In June 2021 Oncimmune announced that its new ID panel had enabled a prior Master Services Agreement with Cedars-Sinai to be extended to analyse samples from multiple COVID-19 projects, elevating the client relationship from a purely ‘order driven’ one to one which is more collaborative. Todays news represents some of the fruits of this relationship. On a broader basis, the company also reported that going forward ImmunoINSIGHTS sales would benefit from new contracts with Roche, its subsidiary Genentech, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and an undisclosed leading US-based global pharmaceutical company working in the immune-oncology and autoimmune fields. Oncimmune expects that new ImmunoINSIGHTS contracts over FY2021 and Q1 FY2022 will likely constitute 50% of FY2022 revenue. With over 90% of ImmunoINSIGHTS revenue likely to be US-based, the company is considering building a duplicate US laboratory and hiring a US business development team to support its efforts in this geography. ”

Trek

Zeus part 1

“Cutting edge COVID-19 research validates ImmunoINSIGHTS as a valuable research tool

This morning Oncimmune drew attention to the pre-publication of new research demonstrating the usefulness of its SeroTagTM Infectious Diseases (ID) discovery assay. The assay, part of the company’s ImmunoINSIGHTS offering, has been used by the US-based Cedars-Sinai Medical Center (Los Angeles) as part of an important study to demonstrate a stronger autoantibody response amongst male healthcare workers previously exposed to COVID-19, than female counterparts (82.4% versus 17.6%). A better understanding of the dynamics, prognosis and pathology of COVID-19 is a key factor in addressing the disease. The ability of Oncimmune’s technology to support and facilitate such important research validates the commercial value of its ImmunoINSIGHTS offering, and will support the expected future growth of the franchise, and accompanying sales and earnings contribution. Our valuation and current forecasts are currently under review pending an update by a new analyst.

Pre-publication of research paper posted on the medRXiv server The paper entitled Paradoxical Sex-Specific Patterns of Autoantibodies Response to SARS-CoV-2 Infection, will in due course be officially published. The paper acknowledges the contribution of Oncimmune in performing the serological assays required for the research. SeroTagTM ID panel added to ImmunoINSIGHTS franchise in Q4 FY2021 Oncimmune’s March 2021 £9m (gross) fundraise facilitated the expansion of the ImmunoINSIGHTS franchise, and is supporting an increase in analytical capacity, from c10,000 to c40,000 samples by Q1 FY2023. Laboratory and commercial operations are being expanded in Dortmund and the US respectively.

N1+Singer note...

“Demand for ImmunoINSIGHTS profiling service is high and today’s release of data from its collaboration with Cedars-Sinai Medical Center illustrates further evidence of the value-add ImmunoINSIGHTS may have to potential customers across disease areas. There are a number of findings discussed in the paper, but with relevance to ONC shares, it shows the importance of using autoantibody profiling over a longitudinal basis to better understand symptomatology, disease duration and effective therapeutic responses across a broad range of diseases. We believe this is supportive of the growing demand for the ImmunoINSIGHTS autoantibody profiling service that is driving realised and projected topline revenue growth. Shares are currently trading below the placing price of 180p which looks anomalous given the significant financial progress exhibited at the June trading update. We reiterate our positive stance of Oncimmune as a 2021 Best Idea.”

Subscription required for full note.

Trek

Yes is hugely important data.

SeroTag is the discovery engine which is part of the immunoINSIGHTS program.

Slides 7 & 8 may help newbies.

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/fy2021-end-of-year-trading-update/presentation

Differentiation based on sex compared to autoantibody response is new territory.

Peeps will get this soon. You come to the like of ONC to validate your vaccine or therapeutic based on their world leading comprehensive data set. It’s a cost effective model that will reap huge rewards in time. No one else has a database of over 8k autoantibodies!

Also a nice holding RNS.

Golf now.

Trek

Rain and smoke now forecast...

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-104_metric_e.html

Trek

Matterhorn, absolutely agree.

Bar a sale we will still need cash though. The cash is not really my point though it’s the timing of events and that I see this a a window of opportunity to increase my position here.

I added Monday at a tad over 150 and will add in again next week. I tend to buy in tranches over time as it helps iron out any lumps.

Trek

“Trek, if anything we have too much money, RM and co barely used anything, and that could help us down the line with manufacturing etc”

No we are light on cash imo. The Finals did not include the P3 trial costs due to timing, only P2. The remaining £75m was there to fund P3. It won’t show in the accounts to 31st Dec 20.

Whilst it’s not fumes more money will be needed soon. It’s a question of in what order events will unfold. It’s the news rather than funding that will be key for the SP. Right news and pretty much a blank cheque with a queue of investors.

That’s why I think/hope we will know what lies ahead before RM comes back to the market or of course he could take a chance an raise before the P3 readout but then investors would ask, what is the money for? News first imo.

Trek