Member Info for TrekMadone

And armchair trader….

‘ Central Asia Metals (AIM: CAML), the London-based miner with 100%-owned operations in central Kazakhstan (copper) and North Macedonia (zinc-lead), on Tuesday reported a record year for revenue, profits, free cash flow and returns to shareholders, thanks to a strong market for metals amid accelerating demand and a shortfall in supply. The Board was able to propose a record dividend within policy, and is expecting to pay off the remainder of its corporate debt facility this year. Berenberg yesterday reduced its price target to 310 (320) pence, and retained the ‘buy’ rating.“

Trek

Here she goes. The bots have it!

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Trek

Well pleased got my last 500k today. Target holding now reached and at a good average below the placing price.this is now my third highest holding in the pf. Thanks itsyou for the tip.

My reckoning is that sellers do eventually dry up and the next news could clear the path for a rerate.

Let’s see how it goes

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Trek

Well I grabbed a few back. It didn’t fall further and I doubt that the buy back bots are switched on yet so we could see a bounce today. May sell them again if it bounces strongly.

Looks like the winner here is the trading houses, which is why we are here! Lol!

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Trek

I don’t buy Cana, PWC or gambling review purely on peer analysis.

I thought it may have been Jo Hambro selling down balancing gains at BRW but with 160k shares bought yesterday, whilst it was the Best Buy back day, also looks less likely now.

If we didn’t have the buyback what then would be the impact on the SP.

I get the rise from 250-290 but I am at a loss in the absence of news to fathom out this drop.

Something innocuous may emerge soon and for those with high convictions this may be a great opportunity.

I took some off as was well in profit with a view to buying them back. Don’t mind paying more for more certainty.

Let’s see how it goes!

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Trek

Exactly one of the reasons that biotechs list is to raise capital. So don’t be surprised when they do.

It’s what they do with it that matters and DP has done a fantastic job with this company and has partaken at every placing and has significant ‘skin’ invested here.

Some investors pick an entry and hold until the end game. Others try and time their buys and sells around significant events and some do both or something in between.

It’s what collectively makes a market.

I sense another opportunity here so am watching with interest but there is no need to bash the company.

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Trek

IC - Peel Hunt, Buy

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2022/03/30/anglo-pacific-times-the-cycle-perfectly/

Trek

Ok here’s where my money is. JO Hambro are significant holders in BRW and CMCX.

As RBC wealth have bid for BRW I reckon hambro are selling down CMCX to equalise losses ahead of year end.

If we get a Hambro TR1 that’ll confirm it.

Main thing is I don’t think it’s ops. Just end of year sillies.

Holdings, won’t be 100% but illustrative enough..

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/BREWIN-DOLPHIN-HOLDINGS-P-4001760/company/

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CMC-MARKETS-PLC-26123514/company/

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Trek

Likewise had a search can’t find any news.

Could be someone dumping who feels results not good but imo the lower end is in price and divi/buy back wouldn’t be going ahead if all bad.

Or…

No idea if the broker is playing this both ways to get a better price for the buy back.

Or ….

Profit taking…

Or…

Short placed, would seem odd! Nothing listed since Blackrock.

List could go on pays your money takes your choice but if this bounces back there will be a lot of sick punters! Of course the opposite is also true….

Think I will sit for now.

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Trek

Interesting comments from Biden in FT today about battery metals. Supports the narrative that I was purporting about domestic mineral supply for infrastructure.

Top left in comments…

‘ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-60935607“

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Trek

Apologies - Yes well spotted arsenal. 150k shares to loan out. That’s the trouble reading headlines in phone but thank you for the correction.

Trek

hituuu,

Thanks yes SQZ and to thick I sold them back in 2015. Was a duster from memory and been afraid to look back since!

Now look at them and still way undervalued!

No reason why TXP can get to 1bn mcap.

Just gotta be patient and allow the asset to shine!

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Trek

Good to know. I don’t use the other site I fell out with them over how they shared my data.

Trek

It isn’t often you get a one way bet in this game. I have had a few over the years most notably ARB. I remember posting at 4.3p saying it would be a £ based on the financial metrics. Next was TXP at 11p where I said it would be over 100p on expo upside.

I sold my last ARB at 160p! I still hold TXP and am still buying.

I made a small fortune out of the covid stocks riding the wave and sold all, now look at the SP’s of SNG, AVCT, GDR etc. why coz they didn’t nail the finance and the ops in time!

Only TXP, SAVE and ONC still standing from my original pf of a couple years ago.

And all three of those have a financed route to growth.

That’s the same as PXC. They will soon have a financed path to growth with a quality asset.

I will be amazed if in 18 months from now we aren’t over 300p. I also expect to see £5 here soon after that as long as macro behaves.

Trillions of USD infrastructure projects kick off next year. Just when our mine opens!

US won’t want Russian or Chinese commodities at least until they have exhausted domestic then other democratic options.

US nine for US jobs in a mining state.

Perfect storm brewing here I think!

Oh and SP moving up with quiet BB. Nice!

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Trek

TXP story defo intact and I also added yesterday. Coho will imo be the catalyst because it means predictable cash flow.

Going to be a steady but bumpy ride over time to 32000 boe/d and debt free.

I doubt many smallcap companies out there that can show that pathway.

Anyone know of a 32000 boe /d company with no debt in a safe postcode. Would be interesting to see what the mcap is.

Good luck with your investments

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Trek

Hi, I have a decent position in PXC.

Likewise I wouldn’t rule it out as the PXC deal will be underwritten by interest rate payments.

So if APF believes the commodity prices will be higher hence a higher NSR then that would fit their mo as the returns would be linked to commodity prices but underwritten by a fixed rate.

Question is do they want to tie up for 10 years and do they think they can get a better deal elsewhere. They may but PXC is perhaps a more predictable revenue option at least for a few million.

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Trek

Even at 10%+ libor it costs in.

Remember it’s not a compounded rate.

Revenues are expected to be

“ - Empire Mine open pit feasibility model completed: pre-production capital expenditure payback less than two years, gross revenue of $836 million over 10 years, $43 million post-tax cash flow in year 1 (at $3.60 / lb copper price)“

So you are looking at paying $12m ball park pa in interest or NSR if higher. With copper as is it’s likely that the NSR will pay which will mean revenues will be higher.

Inflation will also have a amortising effect on debt.

Even with 12-15% + libor that proposition more than pays.

We also have min $10m cash so the first three quarters are easily covered.

These were +80p once with much less financial or operational news. No wonder the directors are holding their shares!

Pretty obviuos is any finance deal will be geared towards a win win. Not to screw the mine else both loose.

For sure this needs more news both from assays and from finance but that will come with a higher SP.

The idea is to buy when you think the odds are in your favour but not in the price.

Personally I think investors should wait for more clarity at least until after April 4th.

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Trek

Lol and also - here is 20 million warrants at a 20% discount to the SP and after a year for every warrant you have you get another share free as long as the sun rises and sets each day!

Oh - And the directors get 5 million shares for doing the deal.

Oh sorry what was that PI did I hear, whisper what’s aPI?

Now that’s the usual mine financing plan!

Ok tongue in cheek but if the market doesn’t get this today I will be amazed. Well actually no I won’t but I will be happily buying more in my new ISA! So I suppose I’d better shut up now!

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Trek

Bitter sweet really. I was hoping for a special divi but also as an investor want to see them pay down the debt which they have done and grow through further acquisitions which also looks likely.

We are now yielding over 5% paid quarterly which is excellent value. I fortunately am getting much more as I bought the recent dip but with inflation and rising commodity prices I think this has further to go even if it takes a breather as the results are out.

Coking coal prices are off the scale and there is much more to come there alone! Look at how TGA SP has performed. It’s thermal coal but similar metrics.

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Trek

At last! What an innovative deal.

So basically they hope to have $60m of non convertible tradable notes with a 10 year life.

They will pay the higher return of either the NSR or a fixed interest rate semi annually.

Note close period ends now so imo expect to see director buying.

Ok so what we don’t know is the interest rate structure. I would guess libor + a fixed % it will be high due to rates now.

We don’t know the NSR but that would in any event be variable so gives the note holder exposure to any increase in polymetallic commodity prices as a bonus.

Min $60m we could even raise more.

And of course no dilution but if I was on the note financing side of this deal even within a concert party I most certainly would want a seat on the board so that could potentially mean buying some equity once the deal completes.

I think this is an extremely bullish and innovative proposition. Note it’s not yet signed off so no idea what the market will think but hey we get to build an mine!

And for sure if I moved house to Idaho then any cash I had left would be in PXC OTC stock!

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Trek