Member Info for TrekMadone

Well done null on your entry price. Must say I thought the bottom would be 78p. I am very surprised to see it go this low. But one should know shares tend to overshoot both ways.

The value disconnect here is now so huge that I am thinking of buying more. TXP is already 100% of my ISA (the rest is in Mrs Treks). I was fortunate enough to get in early and didn’t sell in the 160’s purely because the story was intact and I was aware that things would take time. I didn’t want to risk trading this one.

Time has been ticking away and whilst I think PB has scored a couple of own goals recently the real value remains is in his and his teams ability to monetise this world class asset.

I have no idea where the selling is coming from atm but it’s not just here. The ESG pf agenda is affecting other stocks. Ironically I am more than comfortable with the ESG equation at TXP.

Not only for gas as transitional energy, or the need for lesser economies to be entitled to catch up on the HC footprint that’s benefited in particular western economies but also the local engagement that TXP rightly undertakes.

I also got the investor meet me webcall invite and have a sneaky feeling we may have coho hooked up before then or at least be able to announce it’s imminent.

With inflation and rates rising and HC’s at all time highs TXP has a very good debt package that is more than affordable and there is still slack in the RCF but imo that won’t be needed now.

Like I say time has been ticking and things have been happening.

Buying sub 80p is imo about as good as it’s going to get coz there is news on the way very soon!

Usual caveats

Trek

HaChris,

I last rode this from 40p to 175p and sold out. DDDD, SNG and AVCT have enabled me to fund a life changing pf.

Look at the 3 share prices now!

That RNS was great but was an opportunity to bank a decent profit that I can ‘stupidly’ put elsewhere.

There will likely be another pullback. Whether it’s from 100p to 70p or whatever. I am not bothered I have choices. My longer term holdings are in other ventures including many boring divi plays yielding collectively 8% on average 2x covered!

Having done so much research here in the past I have just been using it as a trading opportunity.

While many are sadly down I am around 400% up from DDDD and that’s not from following the herd.

Anyways. Great news today you guys enjoy the ride! It’s much deserved.

Usual caveats

Trek

In terms of charting the POG the pattern has pretty much just revealed it’s potential with the 2k breakout.

Here’s the 20 year.

https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do#

It doesn’t take an expect to gauge the chances of the 2007 to 2013 pattern now being replicated from 2020 to 2026.

It’s based on a series of Elliot waves but the former explanation is more simplistic.

Note the initial pullback from 2007 and then the massive steep climb. That steep climb given the recent pullback just could be what we are at the foot of now.

Yeps it’s all voodoo but traders will be well aware of the potential and macro is fuelling that all the more.

Our next wave up could for unfortunate reasons be on steroids!

Don’t be put off be the Hawkish Fed pushing rate hikes the delta between yield and inflation is going to stay negative. They can’t push to hard because that could be recessionary. Furthermore, what the won’t tell you is how inflation helps erode some debt! The rhetoric will be harsher than the actions. They have no choice as the US economy is on a precipice!

Money will start flowing into gold and small cap miners will again have their day very soon.

Usual caveats

Trek

Porky,

Here’s the link from the email.

https://*********************/companies/uk/health/4d-pharma-plc/DDDD/LON#tab-short-positions

It’s actually the same source as yours.

Note worldquante didn’t show a step change from .41% down to zero on 31/7/21

Perhaps Brontë closed on Friday and the tracker hasn’t updated to zero.

Who knows but something triggered the research tree email to my in box.

Anyways no worries. Hope this comes good but I am out for now. Buying more CGAT and IQAI.

Back later!

Good luck with your investments

Trek

Interesting handle day trader. Surely the trade was the buy sub 30p and to sell now for nearly 100% profit.

This news is good news for the LTH’s but was even better news for occasional opportunists like myself. I was getting worried where oversold would end!

Enabled me to sell and add to some others positions today.

Plenty of time to get back into this one later unless of course Merck do bid.

Usual caveats

Trek

The shorts closed Friday and were announced Monday. Possibly expecting news this week!

Sorry no link as on email…

“ The level of disclosed Short Interest in DDDD has changed materially.

Short Interest has moved from 0.50% on the previous trading day to 0.00% today. That is a movement of -0.50 percentage points.

Click here to see the full detail broken down by fund

This data is taken from the FCA and comprises all disclosed short positions above the 0.5% reporting threshold requirement.

Thanks,
The Research Tree team”

Usual caveats,

Trek

Hi max that tweet has been deleted. Can you remember what it was?

I picked up 50k at the bell today to average down then there was a sell right after!

There is excellent liquidity atm. You can sell 300k and buy 250k in one hit. For the MM to be prepared to take 300k is a good sign imo.

On 50k it’s 4.118 v 4.44 sell/buy.

Been a long time without news I think some is due soon.

I read the comments below that IQAI are benefitting indirectly from this grant and maybe others. So whilst it’s not direct funding they are being paid by the grant.

Like others I also think the imaging biometrics is a huge game changer and I am hoping that we get some news soon. We know that they are getting revenues from it and its been upgraded.

Even some news on wider take up would be great or better still if the software can be added on to new MRI scanners at point of sale as well as retrospectively.

From this lowly mcap it won’t take much to move us.

I also follow the sector and have noticed positive newsflow from quite a few biotechs over the last couple days from….

DDDD,HEMO,GENI,4BB,GDR,RENX,

It tends to go like that with this sector…ok grabbing hold off anything I can now! Lol!

Come on guys throw us some news!

Usual caveats

Trek

“ Caracal looks forward to providing shareholders with regular updates OVER the next few months during this exciting period of growth for the Company.”

Noted!

Back above 1.2 hopefully.

Usual caveats

Trek

I ran some dummy trades today and was amazed that at times I couldn’t even get a price to sell 50k but could buy. Didn’t make sense but hey not complaining.

Surprising what a bit of PR can do. Hopefully a lesson in benefits of engagement.

Back in the blue now, 5% up. Not that it matters as what’s left in is for the journey now.

Good luck with your investments

Trek

1.0449 v 0.9775 ii price

Trek

Reply from IQAI,

Nothing personal but I do think it’s important to share this as it is for fellow PI’s….

“ Hello Xxxxxx,

This is a different grant. We are not a sub-awardee for this grant. However, given the primary Aim of the grant (to establish the standard in post-processing MRI -DSC data),we stand to benefit from the results. The tweet was a shoutout to the PI’s of the grant who received a perfect score. The NIH grant review process is highly competitive and to receive a perfect score is practically unheard of. It also underscores the significance of the proposed Aims.

So, while no funding is associated with this particular grant for us, we are very excited about its scope and will definitely stay abreast of any/all progress.

Sorry for any confusion – only so many characters are allowed in tweets!
Thanks,

Xxxxxxx

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Damo,

Probably best to look where I post. I am back in the market mostly divi stocks now bar a few small cap exceptions like here ONC, IQAI, HEMO, LND, SAVE and TXP.

You don’t need to just pick up small caps though for the chance of big gains. I added SYNT Friday it results are a million miles from the SP and that +£1bn mcap! There are many similar out there like CMCX which is giving me 10% divi well covered likewise I grabbed MNG at 169p giving me +10% and a 500m buyback and PHNX also at 169 for 8.5%. There are others all with divi covered and growing. I really on these for my own pension income so it’s not for everyone!

I like TXP and ONC for a rerate as both have near term upside and are making money but the SP is at recent lows similar to GCAT.

As alway DYOR

Usual caveats

Trek

I have a watchlist of 40 gold stocks. It was good to see that a few have started to lift. Pretty much all are/were at or near their nadir.

I am wondering if FAANG 2.0 will work it’s way down to the smaller resource plays. It’s early days atm but that FAANG 2.0 trade seems to be getting some attention as Merrill Lynch have been plugging it.

It makes sense from a macro standpoint but I wouldn’t chase aerospace at least yet due to supply constraints and travel ‘downtime’ but gold is defo in the spotlight given the inflation outlook.

Interesting weekend listening ahead of the rugby double bill!

https://www.tradersinsight.news/traders-insight/securities/macro/will-faang-2-0-hurt-the-consumer/

Usual caveats

Trek

Well done O&W, under 0.9 is great timing!

And what a stonking week on the markets this week. Hope you enjoyed the results at GLO amongst some of our other income plays!

Good luck with your investments!

Trek

Yep me too. I sold and then bought back n=much cheaper. Now well in profit and getting a bigger divi!

Trek

Great add in another post after ‘Trek’….

Ignore, the sentiment is the same.

Imo More to come here just when!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi JHFH,

Thank you for your reply.

Your well made points are a reason why I am here with a balanced position.

In response I just refer you to the SP and the markets response to the RNS.

I accept that Hemo are likely undervalued but maintain the last RNS was a timely holder imo. It wasn’t the transformational news purported by some. What is the value in projects if one can’t finance to market?

A difficult question that one, and how do you defend that project. Well what are you defending patent wise if the science shifts just a little! Which happens regularly in this space!

There are so many potential huge SP drivers here but as I predicted at the time of the RNS that wasn’t one of them!

It imo won’t be long though!

Usual caveats

Trek

VLAD can wax lyrical all day long about ‘i know something you don’t know’. The reality is the market gets tired. Investor fatigue kicks in.

Great add all the shares you can at these lows but many are significantly underwater and may be locked in. Even those buying in in 2020 are now probably concerned.

PEG…

“ The price/earnings to growth ratio (PEG ratio) is a stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divided by the growth rate of its earnings for a specified time period. The PEG ratio is used to determine a stock's value while also factoring in the company's expected earnings growth, and it is thought to provide a more complete picture than the more standard P/E ratio.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The PEG ratio enhances the P/E ratio by adding in expected earnings growth into the calculation.

The PEG ratio is considered to be an indicator of a stock's true value, and similar to the P/E ratio, a lower PEG may indicate that a stock is undervalued.

The PEG for a given company may differ significantly from one reported source to another, depending on which growth estimate is used in the calculation, such as one-year or three-year projected growth.”

Key is ‘expected earnings’ also ‘time period’.

Both highly volatile in this space so PEG and even PE is I guess what it is.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Roy,

Thanks for your reply. I am here because I agree on the cash generation and overall health of the balance sheet. Follow my own nose!

As for rate rises I remember Norman Lamont raising interest rates to 16%! Two rises one day was it due to the ERM.

Both of my sisters consequently had their houses re-possessed in the late 80’s! They didn’t expect rates to go up over 100% from what they had mortgaged at. And of course endowments would eventually cover the mortgage, at least that’s what they were led to believe so they kept up some payments. . Oh but any endowments taken out pre 1987 were exempt from miss selling scams! So they then lost again! The endowments were much less than they had paid in despite years of being told all was on track!

Anyways imo don’t get hinged on PEG it’s a real blog buzz. For sure it try’s to portray earnings growth as a factor but it’s value diminishes when you have a non linear cashflow exemplar like JIM.

IMO you are better of looking at sector comparisons like CMCX, PLUS and IGG to get an early warning on the market vix which can really drive one off cash bonanzas which may I add are becoming unfortunately ever more frequent!

However, if you have a longer term outlook then I honestly think the chart is as good an indicator of value as any financial metric.

On the 1 year we are due a climb back to 250p. On the 5 year we have a strong support at 200p.

The trend is a return to 300p and given the results and growth prospects imo that looks very likely.

Trick is with these investments, obviously don’t fall in love with any investment but have funds to cover your position.

So be prepared to sell or average down. The market often gets these wrong but it can be wrong for ages!

I have picked up a few to let ride, I will add at 197 if it drops there unless the outlook changes materially. If the SP looks week on higher volume I will just sell.

No love just an active investor and in my experience it beats hold and hug!

After all I have mortgages to pay off!

Usual caveats

Trek

A cliche but it’s only worth what the market offers.

Whilst the in situ resource valuations and recent peer sales are a benchmark it still comes down to what is offered.

It’s like this is a distressed sale due to being timebound which doesn’t help. Telegraphing that the BoD want out cuts both ways.

We need to hope that there are many bidders for value to be realised.

The sector is currently decimated. Look at the share prices of small cap miners, look at the charts for the last 2 years. They don’t lie! The M&A that folk have expected, self included, has not materialised!

Those are the realities and that is the backdrop for a sale irrespective of the gold price, safe juro, amazing resource, etc etc.

All the reasons we invested are on the face of it sensible but the reality is much different.

The 2 to 10 bags aforementioned is probably more realistic than the 20 bag which atm seems a pipedream away.

50p to 200p I wouldn’t be surprised to see this fold for 100p unless there is competitive tendering.

More than 100p is imo a bonus. With supply costs, inflation and interest rates rising digging is getting expensive and golds inflation benefits come from being sat in a vault not immediately from in the ground!

The jury is still out on the cobalt and nickel resource. Take your pick from a throw away deal ‘nibble’ to a billion $!

Opportunist investors like myself as opposed to the die hard long termers don’t help secure value.

If I see a quid for my 22p happy days I am not interested in what true value is and I am happy to let a position sit there and trade a few until that transaction materialises.

Don’t chastise honesty, take off the rose tinted and ask yourself how many holders are of a similar view and factor in an alternative view to your own which, let’s face it, seems to be the markets perception.

For sure the distressed selling doesn’t help in terms of setting SP expectations. If this was 60p now, probably more representative of value then folk would look to their 240p aspirations but it’s not. It’s 24p!

And all said the market can change its mind in a blink, and so can active investors like myself! I just think that that’s where we are for now so one’s views are tempered accordingly.

Usual caveats

Trek