Member Info for TrekMadone

Here & JIM are probably least likely to be bought due to large holder. IGG, PLUS and ICAP have more diverse investor bases.

Someone mentioned on another BB which I tend to agree with. If you get a family death then that can be a catalyst for a sale other than that I see these being tightly held especially given the income.

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Trek

Don’t know where they got 212 from!

‘ Despite today’s jump, the stock is trading at considerable discount versus this time last year, but not far off its pre-pandemic levels. CMC now has a price-to-earnings ratio of just under four and that makes it dirt cheap to me.

Moreover, I don’t think the outlook is bad for the company either. According to chief financial officer, Euan Marshall, the company’s platforms have both been running at “close to record levels”. This is certainly encouraging.

One thing to be wary of is the dividend yield. Its coverage ratio for the last two years was above two. But the current 11.7% may be unsustainable.

Nevertheless, I still think this share has considerable upside potential and will be adding it to my portfolio.“

https://www.fool.co.uk/2022/04/08/the-cmc-markets-share-price-just-shot-up-9-heres-why/

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Trek

Only just read this….IC view…

“ Synthomer looks cheap, given its trailing and forward price/earnings ratios of around six times. Earnings will decline from here, but the company has been realistic about this cash-heavy period and the high dividend and capex spending combination looks like the right way to go. Buy. ”

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2022/03/04/synthomer-plots-future-without-pandemic-premium/

Trek

Going back to +100p from here. Touched it once today.

Topping up at 75p was such a difficult decision, not!

Thank you shorters. Please place some more bets! Lol!

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Trek

Imo we are waiting for APRIL Q1 Trading update now before any significant SP moves. Obviously macro or news on fine aside unless it’s lower than £52m!

A more solid hint in improvement of trading vols in nitrile gloves could give this a real boost as so much progress was made in other areas.

We will also see how well the adhesives business has integrated.

It just could be that buying now means the divi is in for free when it trades without the divi after xd 1st June.

I hold GLO which went xd recently and you really wouldn’t have noticed on the SP. Also PHNX has pulled back up pretty quickly after XD so the xd doesn’t mean the SP stays at the lower level.

Imo the April trading update will have more impact on the SP.

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Trek

It’s a strategic shift from all western assets. Probably directed by China.

‘ LONDON, March 29 (Reuters) - China's biggest offshore producer CNOOC Ltd (0883.HK) is preparing to exit one of the North Sea's largest field in a strategic shift of focus to newer oil and gas developments and away from Western assets, banking and industry sources said.’

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/exclusive-chinas-cnooc-plans-north-sea-oil-exit-strategic-shift-2022-03-30/

And Canada….

https://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Industry+Sectors/Energy+&+Utilities/Oil+&+Gas/Asia/CNOOC?type=ln

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Trek

I hope volume isn’t dented by the shorter week as this news is a great opportunity to churn some stock ahead of the quarterly report and further expansion news.

Good to see them coming in under budget and ahead of schedule again.

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Trek

Some crazy late trades. 2 x £1m at 250p. Assume sells but matters not as there was liquidity to take ‘em….

Today…

“ RBC cuts CMC Markets price target to 400 (410) pence - 'outperform'…’

I mean FFS a note for a 10p change. You see that here in a day!

I actually think some of the PI’s could give better guidance than these brokers.

Still volume is key to a rerate. Change the guard that can’t think for themselves! Lol!

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Trek

I have read similar narratives on zinc. Well non Russian or Chinese commodities as well as zinc, coal and tin!

SP moves here and at APF in particular have been rapid and imo more to come!

Amazed to be up significantly in both in such a short period of time and bagged a well covered high divi!

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Trek

Say no more…

‘ The Disposal represents a first step in this direction, creates compelling value for ContourGlobal shareholders, strengthens ContourGlobal's balance sheet and enables more effective capital allocation. The Disposal is cash flow and credit accretive from a parent company perspective and a major step in the exit of the only meaningful non-EUR or USD currency exposure for the Company.’

Also no need for AGM due to significant shareholder consent.

Obviously the BoD are doing their best to close the disconnect between the SP and asset value but as I have ‘honestly’ said before this company is a dependable income machine, akin to similar energy trusts and ETF’s. As such a NAV discount is a fact of life for London listings.

I fully appreciate that they need to close the gap between the SP now and the IPO sp but my calcs pin us to a 6% ish divi. If the divi increases as it does yoy by min 10% then the SP imo will follow.

This is not a rocket growth story. It’s a solid income payer, well covered, and as such is my second highest pf holding.

But of course things can change and I think they will go hunting with their plentiful cash!

Let’s see what they do with the dosh. Debt is really not an issue, see my earlier posts.

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Trek

Non uk, gone from 20% to 21%

Interesting that they waited until now before adding. They could have got cheaper.

Mind you at least they didn’t sell!

Could we be looking at our new owners!

What price, mmm 800-900p is the mid from 2013-2020. Can’t see it going below 800p imo.

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Trek

It went to 297 before Canaccord note, assuming that was the drop catalyst. But in any event even after todays results we still aren’t at 297.

‘Easy money’ from here if there is such a thing.

Once above 300 that should form a support and a trading base. But yes there is every chance it can move from 300p to + 400p. It went from 380p to 530p very quickly in March/April 21 and the company is better placed now than then.

Yield now at 270p is 9.6%

After the final bumper divi the yield drops to 4%. That’s assuming a later 5p Final & Interim divi which is imo massively on the low side give the FCF used for a share buy back which will likely be generated again and feedback to shareholders.

4% yield for this growth profile in a cash generative business makes for a compelling investment at this SP.

I am holding these now.

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Trek

Tighter spread today. The 3k ‘unknown’ at 217.5 is a buy, it’s mine.

This is well oversold now. For sure it may go lower, I will add another lot at 200 if it drops there to improve my average but I expect this to bounce soon on last quarters numbers.

Note back through the RNS’s and there wasn’t a trading update last April 21, but there was in April 20. I would expect us to get a trading update this year and can’t see given the finals that it should be weak.

Called it right at CMCX and backing my intuition here. May sell a few on the way back up for use elsewhere but fully intend to tuck away the core holding here for a long term dependable quarterly dividend. This is a very cash generative business.

I am, however, somewhat surprised the market hasn’t read across from CMCX and PLUS500.

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Trek

theboyg,

I get it mate. Good luck.

I was lucky at SNG taking good profits along the way but then I lost £30k on the last day. I was going to reduce on the Friday but we had the storm. No power, no mobile etc I thought oh well perhaps a good sign! Then Monday! Oooops!

Hope you can build back up.

Good luck with your investments.

Trek

CMCX pre trading results out today at top end which is against market consensus. That imo is an early indication of what to expect here.

Tuck some JIM away imo!

Also getting quarterly yield +6% atm.

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Trek

I have been quietly adding here.

CAR-NK is pioneering tech. I have a small position in HEMO that are developing it to treat blood cancer and T-cell response is the next Gen for vaccines and cancer treatments.

There’s loads of info on YouTube if you want to research the tech.

Understanding autoimmune responses for both technologies is critical baselining for biotechs and yet they keep coming to ONC to do the heavy lifting. Nice!

Think of it akin to selling the spades to the early Australian gold prospectors! Every spade is a sale but few prospectors get rich and those that do need more spades!

Still nothing counts until we see the revenue numbers in August but imo you won’t then get the shares at these knock down prices!

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Trek

Well done guys we called it right. As for the SP. Should be well blue today. Theoretically we should climb well above 300p, not all in one day obviously, but given these are the best numbers outside of the pandemic then we should at least return to pre pandemic levels.

Cost are up, mainly pay and advertising but so is the geographical footprint. Expanding what we do geographically is a smart move as once the IT platforms are establish upscaling is not as expensive.

Now tick away that 10% yield!

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Trek

I grabbed some at 288. Kept some dry for 270 bounce but with 10% yield and chance of SP recovery I didn’t want to be too greedy! Lol!

Good luck with your investments

Trek

Lagos and London - April 7, 2022: The Company was notified of the purchase of 204,752 ordinary shares registered in the name of Dr. Charles Chinedu Okeahalam, an Independent Non- Executive Director of the Company. …

Trek

To illustrate look at ARB went to 300p from 4p was ridiculously over valued at even 200p but buyers pushed it there.

Look at TGA was 150p and was printing more than its mcap in cash every year! Now +£12!

The market can be inefficient because it’s based on buys v sells but then it eventually finds a level.

What an opportunity for us PI’s hey!

Usual caveats

Trek