Member Info for TrekMadone

At 15:30 the US payrolls were published, DEC had a little bounce.

Of course it can all be a coincidence!

From CNBC…A Goldilocks scenario for DEC. That is, a soft landing, stable rates and economic growth. Yet to play out of course!

“ Stocks were higher Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and gave a more constructive assessment of the U.S. economy…

…The Fed kept rates in a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, as was widely expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the post-decision press conference would not rule out a hike in December, saying that the idea that it would be difficult to raise rates after pausing for two meetings was wrong.

The central bank also said “economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter.” In previous remarks, it noted the economy was growing at a “solid pace.”

Bond yields slid following the rate decision and the Treasury bond sale plans, boosting equities. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to just below the 4.8% level, while the 2-year Treasury yield dipped under the 5% level.”

I share some of the views posted, mine…

1. November update really needs to show the ‘ship’ is on track in terms of production volumes.

2. A dovish fed narrative will help given 12% of debt is more exposed following the Tanos acquisition. If they show the sales volumes are there and the FCF absorbs the recent rate uplift then that’s positive. Remember that debt is linked to SOFR + a flexible rate according to terms.

3 The ‘Hokey Cokey’ buy back sends out a message that they don’t have cash to buy what the BoD consider to be a ‘no brainer’ asset. Whatever lens you look through, be it the T&C’s on BB’s, volumes or whatever; during the previous buy back there were 700k share BB days! Some days now, zilch!

4. Furthermore, whatever the BoD do, and they have actually done a heck of a lot to underpin the SP there is no getting away from the fact that SOME institutions are decarbonising holdings. Albeit the narrative is ‘maturing’ with the recognition of gas as a necessary transitional energy source: It’s just not imo rounded against the rush to coal in China and the need to support emerging economies that have not benefited yet from carbon. A whole new discussion but it’s the world we operate in and DEC have tangibly gone the extra mile to be a responsible steward yet some inti’s sell.

5. Debt, the results need to show a debt payback glidepath against prod guidance. The market can then factor in the improved cash position as a lump of debt is removed. We have some details but to succinctly say in December we pay off ABS1 meaning interest of x due on $xm of debt is now in the current account!

So is Nov the bottom ahead if results?

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Trek

Just announced, US jobs added 113k, much less than anticipated. Fed decision 18:00 gmt.

Let’s see.

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Trek

I’ve learnt a new word. ‘doppelganger’! Love it!

We saw loads on holiday. One of Boris, a couple of friends and a dead ringer for saffy from ‘ab fab’. White blouse, curly hair an all! Lol!

Now I have a word for it. Just need to recall it correctly. She is a doppelgänger for…

Trek

Nope just some heavyweight domestic appointments with lots of legal and banking experience!

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Trek

That’s very positive. It sounds like the construction will be predominantly on owned ground. So following the model whereby they can execute the majority of operations on patented land without cyanide.

This should mean rapid permitting hence why they are confident to post the first $80m bond (total is $300m).

I think there may well be a small raise in conjunction as the wording has always been to ‘minimise dilution’. It is often the case that you have to have an agreed cash buffer. That may not necessarily be equity though it could come from Riverfort albeit equity is more likely.

Just don’t expect it to be at 20p! If it’s attached to financing it will be higher in anticipation of a SP rise.

Either way the clock is ticking down and this will all come to a head at some point.

Exciting times for PxC, in the right place at the right time with financing based on 1% of explored resource! This could be a monster in the years to come. Esp with 125 million yes million not billion shares in issue! That’s extraordinary for a smallcap digger!

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Trek

I partly blame the LSE ALGO for ridiculous sp drops on low volumes. MM’s just move prices to generate transaction revenue. There is not reward for a position of hold. Stocks drop 25% on a couple of % traded. It’s ridiculous!

“ Britain’s small and medium-sized companies are trapped in a “doom loop” that risks destroying a crucial part of the UK’s financial ecosystem, analysts have warned.

The pace of decline for listed companies outside the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 is “relentless”, according to a report published by Peel Hunt.

The investment bank highlighted a 10pc decline in the number of companies on the FTSE’s SmallCap index. This number has declined by 30pc over the last five years.

It said markets are being hit by a swirl of negative factors including low valuations, falling liquidity, investors withdrawing their funds and a lack of initial public offerings (IPOs).

Charles Hall, head of research at Peel Hunt, said: “The pace of decline is relentless and is likely to continue unless effective action is taken quickly.

“We are currently in a doom loop, where valuations are low, liquidity is reducing, investors are seeing withdrawals and there is little desire to IPO.”

He called on the Government to bring in reforms to make it more attractive for smaller companies to list in the UK and more lucrative for investors to hold shares in those companies.

He added: “It is still significantly more onerous to be listed in terms of costs, bureaucracy, regulations and distraction for management, in stark contrast to private markets, where leverage is typically materially higher, pricing is opaque and there are tax advantages.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/31/ftse-100-markets-news-mortgages-latest/

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Trek

Thought we may have had a lift after the street yesterday. May turn later.

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Trek

Uk issuer terms apply to TB and FAB…see holdings RNS box 1b..

“ Thresholds are 3% for UK and 5% for International TR1 notifications, these are marked as ‘non UK issuer’ with an ‘x’ in the appropriate box on form TR1. Then it’s a full 1% (Uk) and 5% (non UK) crossings….

Note it also applies to financial instruments…

From FCA handbook....DTR 5.1.2 sub para 1

“(1) reaches, exceeds or falls below 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% and each 1% threshold thereafter up to 100% (or in the case of a non-UK issuer on the basis of thresholds at 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 50% and 75%) as a result of an acquisition or disposal of shares or financial instruments falling within DTR 5.3.1 R“

https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/

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Trek

Seen this lots of times. SP’s drip over months and then one catalyst and they rerate in days. It’s almost like the MM’s do this to catch folk out so investors can’t buy the cheaper price and they (MM’s) keep the difference!

I just see that happening here!

But it’s an easy hold when one knows the finances are sound. There are few places especially on aim where you can say that!

We will eventually add more production and then go exploring again. A perfect tuckaway for a SIPP or ISA where the capital gains here in a few years time could be extraordinary!

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Trek

PXC…. Nice!

I got some top ups in the teens. Got my average to 23p so pleased to see it moving,

Lots of news due there! Not many shares for a digger!

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Trek

It’s a gamble. Tai could go either way.

The good thing is the rig broke Sunday they told us Monday.

They also explained that they miscalculated TD and haven’t reached it yet but will pretty much as soon as rig is fixed.

They have analysed samples and there is He. But we knew that from the seeps.

I am glad they have gone deeper as was concerned about well structure. Now they are further in it may be more stabile.

Way to play it. Half in half out then you can average down for next drill or average up for longer returns. But either way the total pot should be beer money.

Now SHG, that is an investment! BUT on ii this morning I couldn’t sell a bean yet price is up.

Imo the MM’s are piggy backing the DM article to work through the overhang.

That’s all fine coz when it’s cleared the SP imo will pop to 13p min!.

The MM couldn’t care less. They will likely send it higher to lock in more buyers and pull it back to 12p!

It’s all guess work but SHG is a very compelling investment.

He1 is a play and hold a few just in case they find the stuff in commercial quantities and then hopefully they do the right thing and sell. I dont see this lot as having the nouse to develop the asset!

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Trek

And divi now 2.47p per share per quarter!

It’s a pretty compelling income play esp with hedges now at 65, growing revs, expanding economy and a huge pot of cash! Divi more likely to continue up than be cut.

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Trek

“ These measurements were made on the Micro Gas Chromatograph whilst drilling and have also been calibrated with the portable mass spectrometer to confirm the presence of helium in the mud gas.”

Boring!

Trek

I don’t know about that. There are less than 200 trades in the first half hour and you really can’t tell buys from sells.

The drop was probably more of a case of folk panicking because they don’t understand the RNS and realise they probably have too much riding on this!

Wouldn’t t even be surprised if some buy back later as they see the sp recover to their emotional turmoil!

IMO it’s best to right off what you invested in a stock like this at this juncture and anything that comes back is an absolute bonus.

It makes for an easier ride.

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Trek

I think it’s a pretty good set of numbers. The divi is more than safe, indeed it could be doubled but they are obviously being cautious ahead of the acquisition .

OML 40 just shows the opportunity here with the assets optimised. 3 rigs now and 6 more wells due.

Also hedging put price has increased reducing some downside risks.

We are only 750m mcap.

The revs and cash position with just 0.9 ebit debt ratio make this look cheap.

Whilst the acquisition will obviously be transformational so would 128m extra cash should it not go through!

I like the intent to continue to reward shareholders. That’s obviously what the institutional holders have been pushing for and SEPL are delivering with more to come.

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Trek

“ The mail ON SHG..... anyone in SHG mick/trek.lol. ”

Hi Tro,

Yes I have a position there 9.6p from memory. Have been meaning to buy more but just been tied up elsewhere. I figured shg would stick under 11p for a while so no rush.

I note it had a couple of pops at 11p but was sold back down.

I do though think POG tailwinds and now this rec will help clear the stock overhang.

Hope it doesn’t just yet though!

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Trek

ITD they will likely only move the bid up if they have an order to fill ‘at best’ to flush sells or take out stops.

Recently I have seen stocks remain NT to buy from 10mins to hours!

If there is then volume coming through they will move it up significantly!

In this market there is little incentive for the MM to hold stock unless they know the volumes will come through.

Stocks have been moved down significantly on low volumes in this scenario to tempt buyers. If buyers come through it will move up significantly. We have seen some examples recently!

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Trek

Lots of buying today.

In anticipation of news?

23p could come pdq

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Trek

2 visits to the 60’s. It oftentimes indicates that a bottom is in. Just need to see trend turn now.

One can never be sure but it will be nice to one day say ‘just to think you could have had these for under 70p once!’ Lol!

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Trek

Should say, 60, sixty day.

Trek