Member Info for TrekMadone

What a sht show!

Like Tro was hoping to sell a load next week!

Trek

Well done DEC. Let’s hope the responsible stewardship and transition logic lands with insti’s!

Trek

I have them on my watchlist. Daily Mailed tipped them as a cash machine for managing corporate currency exposure.

They hit guidance then the CEO mysteriously left so dived, now the cfo has left. Major holders have stuck but obviously some have panicked.

Could be hedges gone wrong, fraud or ‘just’ shgging each other!

Could be a strong bounce on next set of results but I doubt there will be an appetite for stock until the market is reassured.

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Trek

Oh just one other thing, apologies for stating the obvious.

How do you profit from a 30% holding in an illiquid microcap when you haven’t got years and years left?

Has to be some form of lump sale. Anything else will kill the SP. Imagine TB trying to sell down here at any scale!

And neither would you let it go bankrupt for sake of a few hundred k!

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Trek

Imo this 100k conversion is sod all to do with IQAI needing money. Books balanced at interims + there should be cash from sales & royalties. We won’t see the grant top ups until next accounts though.

If you go back to the vids posted here KS said ‘I have a very large team’. That’s because of all the help that IB get from grants, sponsors and charities.

It’s the opposite from dilution. Someone else has funded this for years now and shareholders have been very privileged. That’s what the market can’t fathom.

Imo TB is just maximising his own and his families position here. I am not a fan of CLN’s but sometimes they do actually work especially when they have been converted in a measured way without share confetti’!.

TB and family (FAB) own a substantial amount of equity here. We are aligned.

Furthermore, there is only 191m shares out there. Hardly anything compared to most biotechs let alone miners which raise after raise into the billions!

IMO there are some huge SP inflexion points ahead. All investors have to do is hold as the clock is counting down.

This stock from an 8m mcap with less than 200m shares is more likely to multibag on transformational news than bigger caps. Even just going to 22p is where it’s been before and our ops are much more advanced now.

If you look through the microcaps it’s difficult to find this type of stock with a realistic opportunity. Another I found is PXC with few shares and news due. Having a couple helps one’s chances.

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Trek

I just had the cavendish note pop into the inbox. They are forecasting $110m debt repayment given no acquisitions. Their view on rates align with mine and they attribute the majority of the sp decline to equity redemptions.

Albeit to countenance that i would say it’s likely only part of the story as peers are up 19% over the same period.

Nonetheless they maintain a sp target of 150p and say the stock is oversold. They also view the outlook as very positive for DEc given it’s hedge position.

I intend to add more once I can flip from elsewhere.

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Trek

There was a late print of 980k shares sold by looks yesterday. MM must have a buyer though to take that on.

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Trek

It’s confusing but my understanding is it’s 60 days after acknowledgment.

The point is to have something that can be sold or used to assist in funding not sat on the shelf for 3 years!

The FDA objective is to support clinical development in areas that otherwise would be overlooked due to cost, cos and/or that they only affect small numbers of people. So rare diseases with unmet clinical needs. It’s why treatments are so expensive. The vouchers are to help that segment.

Sometimes it’s clearer if you look at the objectives rather than the technical detail if that makes sense.

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Trek

SFOR… just read the headlines. Now that is an economic canary. Look at the 5 year chart horrendous!

But once there is a hint of the economy about to turn or rate cuts that one could bounce pdq as long as it’s still there!

The intro of AI in the sector is pretty obvious and now they have ended merger payments there are also opportunities to cut costs esp with underperforming or not needed sales reps.

Sorrel will turn it around. Also talk of FCF soon for buybacks/divi.

Could be one to bottom fish.

On the watchlist!

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Trek

Nice one nom.

I hadn’t picked up on TIME. Chart looks v good.

Meanwhile I just looked at LND fundraising RNS. Must say I gave up trying to work it out! Of course I could have but if it doesn’t just jump out at me as reasonably straightforward it’s usually just not worth it!

The cynic in me says its been construed to satisfy a select group of people that already have a trading motive!

I think I sold them at around 14p. Head over heart reasoning for the sale as the rocks were good but looking at the SP walk down it’s now proved to be another lucky escape! Phew!

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Trek

Hi Evi….

Copper and Glen mentioned

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1032168/mining-101-copper-all-you-ever-wanted-to-know-about-the-red-metal-and-were-too-afraid-to-ask-1032168.html

Trek

“ DEC, something spooked the SP at around 3pm, dropped into the close? ”

Tell me about it it’s one of my main income plays. I have traded down to 70.1p now all the way from around 120p! Have made, sorry replaced money with some of the bounces!

I think lots of folk like myself are trading a position there to lower their average. Results next week could see a Stella sp recovery or a revelation that finances are to the wire!

I would obviously prefer the former and just hope that should the later manifest it’s already in the SP!

I am expecting the BoD to show a debt run off profile in their presentation and give confidence that they are on track to achieve it.

From memory there’s a big payment due in December. Obviously if all stays the same then they will have more cash as they pay down quarterly amounts.

Now the fed has turned dovish there should be less pressure on the 12% unhedged debt. But that said SOFR is actually up 0.01 mtd!

If they keep hitting volumes which were up then that’s the key driver. Whilst price is mostly fixed volumes are the underlying SP catalyst imo. The outlook for NG demand in US and now overseas is extremely compelling. Hence billions being committed to CAPEX projects!

I am pretty confident of riding this phase out and bagging a huge long term income. For 20% yield it isn’t supposed to be plain sailing!

I am more than aware that even after loads of research and data validation I can still be wrong! Or rather not been given the whole story!

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Trek

Some good stuff today guys. Just goes to show a BB can be useful if people challenge and exchange data rather than ‘emotions’! Some BB’s have become useless, even harmful for the lesser experienced investors!

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Trek

Had a reply…..

“ The Fast Track and PRD are two separate programs, submitted to two different offices at the FDA. The voucher applies to the PRD (pediatric rare disease).

We request the voucher when we submit a rare pediatric disease product application – either in the initial package sent or up until the point of NDA/BLA filing.

Obviously the PRD is the first, necessary step which is now being prepped for review by the FDA.”

Goes on to say….

“ it is encouraging that the FDA offers these multiple accelerated approval pathways.”

I have redacted the salutations. There is no other information contained in the missive, just this clarification.

Trek

Well done blue profit is profit.

Tro se SAV’s last RNS. They are down on implied relationships with the bent PM.

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Trek

Another bonkers day. Lots of early sells. We saw19p but you couldn’t buy that and then loads of buys again and SP moves up 10% like there was a mid day RNS. Crazy!

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Trek

I think they will release the results as a caveated discovery as soon as. Then say move to next drill and go for it before Christmas. As the pad is ready and civils done the weather isn’t such an issue.

SP should have a run and if they any sense tap the market before TD on next drill.

They won’t have the flow tests though so won’t be a big cash call but enough to see them comfortably through next phase of testing.

Unless your a die hard HE1 Tro sell half on a double and then let the rest ride. I think 12p is very possible which will likely see a lot of 6p sellers though.

I rode it to 26p first time around with buys from 4p to 8p and sells over 20p.

I didn’t go near it when DM tried drilling with a flipping water pump!

This time is different but it’s still super risky!

IQAI did their usual mid day RNS. I am still backing that one!

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Trek

Got HE1 on the nose today! Loaded at 5.44 was the best, showed as a sell, others all below 5.8.

Also got PHNX nice 14p profit on a good size trade. I posted there.

SAV, I didn’t buy in the end. Just wasn’t sure and it’s not one I would like to be stuck with!

Good luck!

Trek

Tick!

Now note…..

“ If IB's application is successful, the PRD designation provides incentives including eligibility for a priority review voucher that can be redeemed for a subsequent marketing application.”

Then from letter to shareholders….

“ We are currently working on an application for FDA Fast Track Designation. This is a program the FDA uses to fosters accelerated development and review of drugs that treat conditions with an unmet clinical need. We are targeting a submission by the end of October.

Once that submission is under review, and to leverage our ODD designation for pediatric brain tumors (GBM and ATRT), we will apply for a Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher (RPD-PRV).”

I am not sure if they are now applying for the voucher in tandem or waiting. I will drop Mike an email later but any comments in the meantime appreciated.

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Trek

Ignore google finance. 6p now to buy 50k on ii.

Told ya!

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Trek