Member Info for TrekMadone

SFOR big pop for that one. Just now.

On your tracker Tro?

I’ve been waiting for it.

Trek

Just back from golf. Can’t believe had best score of year 43pts!

Anyways HZM what a sht show. I wouldn’t touch it. It’ll be death spiral finance if they can land that. One package won’t be enough. It’ll be engineered for an admin sell off like SXX. Paid for by shareholders!

ONC I tipped it a while back. I only had a small position bought at 16p sold most at 24 but have sold the rest. Accounts are overdue now. Best out.

SAV for sure sell off looks overdone but I still wouldn’t jump on a trade unless it’s a penny. This market needs oversold overload before it’s bought!

PHNX a case in point I am blue there at last but they declared 400m cash pot surplus from acquisition and announced that results would be at or better than top end at 1.8bn! They will have their mcap in fcf in a few years! It’s unbelievable. That’s a ftse100 outfit. Shares popped to 507 and then sold down to 488!. I am at 481 with 11% yield 2x cover! Crazy! I reckon they will be snapped up for +700p!

PXC… very little stock to buy. If you don’t have any it’s worth a punt imo with finance and ops news very soon. You can sell into the news then or hold. I will do both!

TXP another cash machine. Numbers today are as expected. It’s going to be 2024 that that one will move. I am happy to wait coz the balance sheet is much better now and they could buy themselves back next year!

DEC I have kept the faith at 70.1p. +20% yield! Results tomorrow. It’ll be better than fine. There’s an interview on directors talk today.

IQAI landed two grants for GaM. No RNS. No idea for how much it’s on social flipping media. No RNS but they are going about their business. Next year Rodders. That one just could be spectacular! A moonshot! I am sticking with it with now an overweight position for such a tiddler!

DEST I made a few bob. Sold at around 35p. Should have kept some. Was always going to buy back but didn’t have funds. If anyone is in there don’t be a fool like me. Stick. It could be very very good especially if you are under 30p like I was!

Yu - I though 1400p. It’ll come! Just a bumpy ride but worth it from 300p! I had to sell though.

Good luck!

Usual caveats

Trek

Full interview on directors talk…

“ How you do you see the outlook for DEC and the fact it’s no longer pursuing a US listing?

We believe that the recent sell-off in the stock is overdone, and the outlook for Diversified Energy remains positive given its combination of low-decline, predictable, hedged production base and insulation from rising interest rates and capex inflation. The decision not to pursue a US listing given current market conditions should provide assurance to investors, the Company has ample liquidity and issuing new shares to facilitate the listing given market dynamics at the time was not the path to execute. It demonstrates that the Company is focused on shareholder value creation. The long-term strategic benefits for a US Listing remain in place, as it provides a pathway to expanding the investor base, increasing our valuation, adding research coverage and raising the profile of the Company. So focusing on solutions to expand into the US market with the deep pools of capital it provides should be supportive to the current UK based investors.”

Thanks for posting Lukee

Trek

Over 2% traded today and the indicative buys out done the sells into the afternoon.

There’s been good liquidity all day for pretty much any size trade.

Theoretically that means the sellers have had an opportunity today to leave..

Unless people are waiting for over 510 to sell then we should have another good day tomorrow.

But then where does logic fit in with this stupid London algorithm. Tomorrow could be low volumes and we give up 3%! Like I said there is no reward for a position of hold. The MM’s get paid on trades so they move the stock to generate volume.

Another way of gauging sp here is comparing our yield to Av and LGEN. We are still over 10% and have historically yielded 1% more than our peers not 2% or more. So there’s parity headroom on that basis especially as the market doesn’t seem to absorb the recent numbers!

Under 500p is crazy cheap here surprised we haven’t had a sovereign wealth fund loading up at this price.

Given the completed takeover absorption surely someone will come in to buy PHNX. Pretty much a no brainer for an accretive cash rich rival!

There would also be less of a pushback than trying to buy the likes of Av or LGEN which are household names. We are comparatively unknown by the public.

The BoD have just shown any potential bidder that there is huge upside from economies of scale!

My money is on a bid now but happy to take the dividends in the meantime.

Usual caveats

Trek

Usual caveats

Trek

Today’s news is getting sold into. Huge volumes today. Many folk I guess using the opportunity to get some money out of the markets.

Hopefully get another run up when US opens.

Still irrespective of SP atm there is deep value here from their significant cash flow. Even the regulatory environment has improved and continues to improve for insurers. And like I said before these people/keyboard centric businesses will be big beneficiaries from AI and that is not as far off as some peeps think!

Usual caveats

Trek

Well there’s that 7% up! But that still doesn’t factor in the iteration of guidance to top end.

Trading this one… not anymore!

If this sticks above 500p then that’s job done. Can just switch off and take my +10% yield.

Usual caveats

Trek

JSE… what a great update from them!

To think we said buy at 25p after the short term ops hiccup! Now it could climb back to 60p support over time. I would look for 50p though as even the charts aren’t playing by ‘the rules’ anymore!

Longer term though it must surely go back towards 100p on revenues.

Let’s hope for a similar hiccup recovery at HE1. Get that string out and the lab results and it’ll pop!

Usual caveats

Trek

“ If Apple’s market capitalization was equal to a country’s annual GDP, it might just be in the G7. At a market cap of more than $2.1 trillion, Apple’s market capitalization is larger than 96% of country GDPs, a list that includes Italy, Brazil, Canada, and Russia.”

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-tech-giants-worth-compared-economies-countries/

Pretty incredible!

It just shows what societal template delivers wealth. It’s just a shame that not enough of it is reinvested back into the society to deliver more and a better quality of life.

Still at least Bill is doing his best!

Usual caveats

Trek

I don’t pay attention to them cane. Best not provide any oxygen. Anyone investing their own cash should be able to read an AR a balance sheet and be able to do basic analysis. If that analysis has landed you here that’s pretty good.

There’s also loads of free stuff available nowadays but even after all that unless you are super dooper confident it’s best to spread it around a bit. PHNX is my biggest position. I know it pretty well including the charts and trading opportunities.

But even after all that at 481 I am still down here. Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

VOD strategic deal with Accenture.. 150m! What a waste of money. I have done loads of work with them and McKinsey’s in a past life. You don’t need to do transformation like that. It’s often used as an excuse to hide behind to drive down costs brutally but you can do it from talent within which is what usually ends up happening anyway!

Didn’t McKinsey sort the NHS out!

Usual caveats

Trek

WSBN at it again. Sounds like ECR and their amazing rock chips! This time WSBN have a hanging wall formation. All very interesting. Surely not again though they only raised in August. Oh a traders delight that stock!

Usual caveats

Trek

The main thing is they are delivering 1.4bn base. The market never expected that. They had lower or even a miss in the SP. The outlook was dire.

I have always said they market has overlooked the inflation hedging benefits. Now you see it. 1.4 + 0.4 - 1.8bn! In black and white!

To get these now and bag a double digit 11% STIRLING yield is sale of the century imo!

Now you watch the predators come sniffing. This stuff is all digital it and can be lifted and shifted and rebranded easily. Plus with AI there are huge savings to be had. Look at DL the AI customer service bots scored better than the staff on customer feedback!

Massive savings ahead in this sector especially managing legacy policies for years to come!

Usual caveats

Trek

Interesting RNS from PHNX today. 400m cash upgrade following acquisition and also guidance reiterated. I posted there.

I have for me a big position in that one and have traded my average down pretty well. Now that’s an oxymoron! Lol! But you know what I mean in this market!

I also think PHNX is a prime t/o target for a big US/European insurer. It’s just a lift and shift and logo change especially now it’s all digital.

Usual caveats

Trek

“ The Group therefore now expects to deliver c.£1.8 billion of cash generation in 2023, a significant increase relative to our previous target range of £1.3-to-£1.4 billion. Consequently, the Group's three-year cash generation target across 2023-2025 is also increased to £4.5 billion, up from £4.1 billion previously.

As a result, the Group expects to have significant surplus cash at its holding company at the end of 2023, which creates further balance sheet optionality.‘

So apart from the surplus cash from the merger note that pervious guidance is also maintained. Pretty much contrary to how Mr. market is pricing Phnx!

I wonder if ‘balance sheet optionality’ could include a special dividend. Now that would be nice!

Usual caveats

Trek

Cane I reported Acacia to the MAR for failing to notify TR1’s on DDDD and SNG. They replied to say they had ‘coached them’. They did it again thereafter! I re reported them as they had been selling stock and not notifying the market!

Th MAR replied to me and said they are not obliged to reply to me! I Couldn’t even raise a complaint!

They are useless!

Ps. why is there only one monopolies commission! Lol!

Trek

“ but we're there for geological reasons....mechanical and electrical failures,can be fixed and go with that sector”

That’s true Tro….

But first it’s the financial stress as that also affects the SP….

My understanding is they need to recover the drill string to run the tests. That needs ‘international rescue!’. Time, costs, money etc

The Karoo with a crappy rig is again proving problematic.

Fixing the hydraulics is no guarantee something else on the old banger gives up. They could still have a rig that’s a liability.

Of course all could go like clockwork from here on in ops wise. So don’t wanna miss out!

They will still need cash tho!

It depends on one’s position, time frames etc. I had 250k shares. Now ‘only’ have 100k in. I am leaving in the 100k and will use the rest to cover my position.

Having some as cash can mitigate the next dilution. Don’t mind averaging up or down. Never a dull moment!

Let’s hope the geo out’s eventually!

First time around I had 800k shares. It was easier to ride the hype then! This time I have been scratching my head and am glad I am mostly just in divi stocks now! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Just listened to interview. If I had heard that when market was open I would have sold the rest as well!

I mean what sort of commissioning did they do. Check the paint! It’s been parked up for how long isn’t it obvious to take it for a spin first! Unforeseen my backside!

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Blue,

it’s always smart to take some off when faced with uncertainties. In my experience (ouch) it usually tends to get worse rather than better.

If you have cash on the side you can average down or if lucky average up or even not bother. If you are all in you are basically backing a narrative as CEO’s tend to be better at spinning narratives than delivering results!

When that roughneck failed first time no way did they fix it properly. Imo they risked going back in with it botched to hit TD. That’s because they are close and haven’t got the spares, time or cash to have further delays!

Don’t get me wrong I’d probably have done the same, accepting not having ordered spares with the rig ffs!

Now they are at the business end. If they can’t complete the DST, the kit gets stuck or they loose it we are fkd!

So from a trader/investor perspective one is looking at going to 2-3p or lower v announcing a discovery and if lucky 8p imo as it will need cash to realise it and there’s still the need for a flow test. Look at TRIN recently went to 100p then back to 70p!

So in effect and this is ONLY my view one is gambling a 5.5p hold for 8p poss more upside v a downside to 2p and a cash lock in.

So just taking a balance that’s 2.5p gain say v 2.5p loss. That’s not good at this stage when punters were buying at 6p for a lower resistance path to 12p min!

Keep a marker in there with cash on the side if you like or cash out, review or even move on until finance is clear. It’s just so many PI’s just buy hold and get stuck!

That Karoo looks problematic with crappy rigs!

Ps PXC looking interesting again. Seems to have clawed its way above 20p now.

Usual caveats

Trek

I dumped 60% on my return from golf.

Figure rig is fkd… if they could’ve fixed it they would have first time!

Even if they get it going it probably now rules out second drill at least until they service it and have a shed full of serviceable spares. Unbelievable!

I haven’t calculated cash burn as this time I only hold a trading position but I was expecting them to raise at the second drill anyway. That now it looks nailed on just possibly now for a second drill!

If they complete the DST and announce results I will sell the rest into news and start again.

Fortunately I am ‘just’ down a small amount and that can be recovered by what’s left in or if news is bad I now get stuck with 40% in rather than 100%. My average was a tad under 5.8.

So sell the remaining 40% into next rise if there is one then sit it out and wait for the next placing.

I don’t care if it’s 8p I buy back in for. It’s about protecting one’s capital and not have it all locked in!

There’s always plenty of opportunities to buy back in later!

There that’s the plan today will probably have another one on Tuesday! Lol!

Usual caveats

Trek

Lol Bankrupty!

I have pages and pages of trades on some of my positions. Likewise I also keep a core and work my average. My last sales here were sold at 44p and some in the late 20’s. Been buying again sub 20p but I did sell a few 10k’s at 22p for no other reason than to switch some cash short term to elsewhere.

Just make sure you keep an eye on the bottom line as one of my PF’s is up over 400% and yet it shows down 8% on ii due to all the buys and sells! Lol!

Been some good vols here. Can hear it creaking ready to pop soon!

Usual caveats

Trek