Member Info for TrekMadone

It was NT to buy just before they dropped the SP. Obviously to encourage sells.

MM just creaming the volume here making money off the spread!

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Trek

Thanks JDCBC forgot it’s just a TU as the said results but obviously they meant a TU.

Trek

SFOR on move at last!

How’s your he1 Tro,

I am 140% up this second time around! Mind you I only have a small amount in there. First time was substantial winnings!

Been a good week this one especially at Dec. I only dipped out on 1 trade from like a dozen!

Trek

The ABB and placing is closed. Obviously the deal was agreed beforehand and those investors won’t loose at any sp!

Next is the Riverfort extension and increased borrowing.

There should be enough working capital from the ABB to make the Riverfort payments. Revenues atm from royalties are minimal.

It’s gonna be a case of juggling debt to pay debtors until first pour.

However, they could always raise more equity. That imo would be very sensible once they finalise the debt. There’s plenty of headroom for that and stock can always be bought back later.

They have been anal about avoiding dilution but there is good dilution and bad dilution. A raise to make the initial coupon payments would be good imo. It may even be insisted upon by the bond holders and that should by then be at a higher sp.

See there are ways around this. They either haven’t figured it out, unlikely imo! Or they are just sat in a pool of hubris and consequently sht comms which hasn’t helped anyone!

I will watch and wait. Tbh the sp isn’t what’s important when factored in with the news. It’s the news and more certainly which is worth paying for especially given their track record.

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Trek

This will really motor into the close imo on lots of smallish buys.

Peeps will know that just a couple hundred quid could more than double next week so a good gain with a relatively small stake!

Chuck in any trading money or profits from the week.

It’s never a sure thing but the odds look pretty good!

Also for those sticking around buys now should be below the next placing price if there is one.

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Trek

And the unit costs are below 1.9 and that’s allowing extra for plugging!

Imo this is going back above 1000p now. Any momentum and some shorts may close causing a little rally like what happened when TT closed. But remember shorts don’t have to close unless there are agreed terms. But then having to cover the divi is sure an incentive!

The results are due next week and I expect they will be accompanied by detailed costs on plugging and emissions.

The plugging is easily done by showing the number of wells v total spend. They will also show how unit costs have improved following next lvl and bundling work.

The company completed a LiDAR survey of their assets and have bedded in the smarter asset management. There will be loads of data to show how emissions are better managed under the Dec umbrella than they were before and compared to other operators.

Heck they may even announce a small increase in the divi in line with their shareholder ethos!

I would like to see an employee scheme announced as I don’t think they have one and at this price there should be a good take up!

My only concern is if they announce an acquisition as even if it’s funded by the RCF and debt it doesn’t sit well at this SP. It would have to be a very good deal bordering on a giveaway! Even Tanos was a good deal yet the market didn’t think so albeit there were other macro factors at play at the time.

Not long to find out!

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Trek

Sorry accelerated bookbuild

Trek

Unlikely bond holders would buy, they are a different investment class.

The ABB is already done, it closes today. It’s possible that some of the stock has been forward sold and some has been shorted. Those funding the ABB will be guaranteed to make money, even at 9p!

It’s possible that the lower it goes the more they make. That’s how funding works on AIM and also for smallcaps on the main market.

It’s the PI’s that pick up the tabs!

People investing in fledgling miners, O&G or biotechs should know that. These are trading stocks. Only a small percentage if any is to hold and hug in the hope of dreams coming true!

There will be a time to buy in here just like over at HE1!

The ones that do well will be those that get their timings right and that requires as much luck as anything else!

I am very likely gonna buy back in as I have a good feel for things here now and the likely cash burn. But just not yet!

Good luck to all!

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Trek

Well I did say there would be a placing and a retail offer to ‘appease investors’.

I also said that they would need to increase the Riverfort lending facility as they would need a significant amount of cash to pay the first coupon on the bond unless they were permitted to use the Capitol from the bond to hold an amount on account.

8%-12% interest or whatever they agree when no copper is produced is quite a bit of money when lending 80m!

Don’t get me wrong all things are still possible but that ‘by Jan 2nd RNS’ was the final clue!

And there were plenty of clues. The smart money here either stayed away or used the volatility to trade down and out.

All things are still possible and the asset here is amazing but I think even at 11.5p one would be better sitting on the sidelines until the finance terms are revealed.

Even if that means paying more or at least taking a small position and then averaging, hopefully up! when they get the bond sorted!

Good luck all.

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Trek

“ I reckon there’ll be a fund raising soon; maybe March/April or something.”

Why? How much do you think they have left?

Coz LTH’s here know

I reckon they are fine until H125 26 or something!

Trek

Hands up bggered the last trade up here. Sold a few around 920 expecting it to go much lower today. Watched it hit 902 and then it bounced! Bought back my shares lost £1.20 on the two trades but bggered my low average up!

Thankfully I only traded 25% of the pf! And He1 has made up for it from 0.19p there!

Think I’d better sit on my hands now though as one can ride one’s luck too much!

Trek

Hi SeaTank

I see Nigeria as far more investor friendly than the UKCS! For those reasons that you point out and sold UK oilies a long time ago in favour of SEPL and SAVE. I sold Save, fortunately after a multibag before the last suspension and put it all in here!

The biggest risk imo is the bandits/local mafias but these are being onboarded with community employment, investment and local security.

On the global stage everyone wants to be Nigeria’s friend with its youthful demographic and high growth economy! Russia, China, The West and India. Nigeria seem happy to play all sides and none at all!

A good SP rise today now through 140 as predicted!

Could well see a gradual 100p rise from here and a 100% increase in the dividend if that divestment lands.

99%! lol!

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Trek

“ anyone knows another fantastic Stock to put my profits in!?”

IQAI…. DYOR!

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Trek

It’s pretty much impossible to tell buys from sells as volatility and price moment is within the 10-15min ALGO run.

Most of the red trades are likely buys as since the real time trade they are now below the mid point when the ALGO ran and printed the trade so they now look like a sell, as below the new mid, when they were a buy.

But it doesn’t matter. It’s all about volume.

For each sell there’s mostly a buy. The price will then move once the sellers and profit takers dry up.

Will that be 0.5p 1p or whatever, I have no idea but as I posted before the odds from 0.3p to making money look pretty good.

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Trek

Don’t understand peeps saying it’s not commercial. No one says it is yet. Even the RNS!

It’s just a big step closer on a long journey still.

But it’s a huge step and that step is worth more than 0.2p in the SP. I may well be worth 0.5p or an even a penny. The market will decide.

But you could have bought under 0.3p at the bell, even a couple hundred quid and still have a good chance at a meaningful multibag from there.

And if it’s not commercial. You loose £200.

I tend to focus as much on the odds and momentum as anything else.

Atm 0.3p has a big tailwind imo. Commercial or not!

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Trek

Was NT for a while at .31. Waiting for profit takers before it can go to 0.5.

Imo it should get there.

Will have the biggest run up to dst results.

Then the commercial dilemma raise and go alone or raise a bit and sell.

Either way I think sp heads way north from here!

And at last we’ve had a bit of luck on our side weather & mechano wise!

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Trek

Looks v promising.

Well done tro for your last throw there.

It’s a pity the climb will be from the basement of 0.2p!

Don’t underestimate the value of the hydrogen there and imo as soon as the dst results come out and a nice rampy commercial RNS sell a load and re-invest below the next discounted placing.

For sure they could sell the lot but either way they will need cash.

Just try and box clever and don’t chase the SP.

If you are already up it’s a hold. If not good chance to trade back to profit imo.

There are of course many other ways to play it and only hindsight will tell. But so far I haven’t been caught the wrong side of any of the placings!

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Trek

I was in the process of writing on DEC already and was analysing the letters to and from the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce which had been started following letters received from four members of that committee who had requested information.

Assessing those letters and more importantly how and why the company decided to reply is of significant interest. Even though by nature of the letters coming from a few individual members, who are also not in the majority on the Committee, DEC didn’t have to respond at all, the fact is that they did and to a great extent put to bed the Asset Retirement Obligations that were put to them.

I have to say that this virtually unknown organisation who have taken this shot at DEC and a shot that is at a very easy target given the current malaise of the energy sector and one where the yield has got to a level at which even the company would be considering the best way forward in terms of internal funding and shareholder rewards.

The reason for this in most cases in the sector has been a degree of forced selling by income funds who have seen a great number of redemptions and consequently the high yield is sometimes largely affected by the long-only income funds who are restricted to balancing the books.

On a day to day basis DEC is going about sorting out the ARO’s, continuing to look at both acquisitions and disposals as part of normal portfolio and in fact current restraints are more than likely to enable the company to find new ways of funding these M&A activities which have always added value to the assets.

Whilst it may be on the back foot from this attack I think that the overall strength of the portfolio and valued at well above the current market cap will ultimately mean that the exceptional management of DEC of a portfolio that with healthy oil and gas prices will mean that the short-term nature of rifle shot short trading is unprofitable and more importantly short lived.

The bottom line is that the management, who are major shareholders will always act in the best interests of the owners of the business and act accordingly. Finally for a company that is well hedged it correlates with the US natural gas price closely and that has fallen recently and I happen to expect a significant rise.

https://www.malcysblog.com/2024/01/oil-price-dec-genel-afentra-and-finally/

Trek

Hi F79,

Yes I see what you meant now. My apologies I got the wrong end if it!

Trek

“ It's all about market cap, the shareprice is largely irrelevant if it's tenth of pennies of pennies.”

I disagree when 100k shares cost 80k at 80p and now at 13.5p you get 590k shares for the same capital outlay!

This game, especially in the small cap world, is about timing and of course a bit of luck as it works both ways. If one is on the sideline’s and an RNS lands sending the stock to 100p and NT then you may gain zilch!

Timing is one of the most overlooked factors in this game. That can be mitigated somewhat by holding some and trading some. But as for hold and hug. Most of the charts show you gotta be very astute or very lucky for that one to pay off!

Good luck

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Trek