Member Info for TrekMadone

Dow falling - was surprised London opened up today.

Anything related to bonds down again now. Insurers banks etc…

I should have followed my nose sold and bought back but I am hoping it will be just a small drop and bounce.

Us economy is amazing the beats ATH and high rates, us consumer is king!.

No way fed will cut for a while now or could overheat economy and inflation come back.

They will stick for ages imo until jobs data slows or electioneering!

Usual caveats

Trek

Peeps buy high and sell low!

So spike price peeps buy.

Drop price peeps sell

Spike price sell it back to em and repeat.

MM’s win coz we are emotional!

Usual caveats

Trek

They had sell books closed from off. Could only buy. NT any sell.

Just got a sell price now for 100k at 2.3!

You know what you can do with that! lol!

They sold stock at +3p and now want to buy more back off punters at 2.3p!

lol

Usual caveats

Trek

Just got a sell price now for 100k at 2.3!

You know what you can do with that! lol!

They sold stock at +3p and now want to buy more back off punters at 2.3p!

lol

Usual caveats

Trek

MM’s closed the books on sells. Just allowing buys through.

Can buy at 3p now but still NT to sell.

Anything below 3p is a screaming buy imo and will have plenty of time for 6p!

Usual caveats

Trek

3p is only 100m mcap. I wouldn’t even look until 6p. Whilst 6p may not land this week. There’s a pathway to it. That’s only 200m mcap. That’s peanuts for what we have!

Like I said get that data room set up

Attract sealed bids

Get a free carry

Live off the dividends!

I don’t think folk can see past a short term gain sometimes.

Usual caveats

Trek

It’s in line with guidance. Mobile churn if anything isn’t as bad as feared.

Overall cashflow nets out where they said.

I think it’s a dip and then a relief as folk realise the numbers are what is already in the sp.

Usual caveats

Trek

Rise 2m at a premium.

Set up a data room

Sealed bids for JV

Give away a % at zero cost to us.

Live for ever off the profits and dividends!

It’s not difficult LB.

Just need a hard nose now!

Usual caveats

Trek

This is huge!

Imo they will need to raise soon for working capitol. Just a couple mill at a premium sp!

After that they set up a data room and charge folk a ticket.

Anyone wanting in pay HE1. Sealed bids almost.

This is so good if they play their cards right it’ll be free lunches for ever after getting a one way bus ticket!

Now we will see how good LB is!

Usual caveats

Trek

It’s huge mick!

Imo they will need to raise soon for working capitol. Just a couple mill at a premium sp!

After that they set up a data room and charge folk a ticket.

Anyone wanting in pay HE1. Sealed bids almost.

This is so good if they play their cards right it’ll be free lunches for ever after getting a one way bus ticket!

Now we will see how good LB is!

Usual caveats

Trek

This is so big a small working capital raise is all that will be needed imo.

After that anyone will have to pay HE1 just for a look at the data room and much more beyond!

Sealed bids imo!

Usual caveats

Trek

They said 80m of a potential 300m not me. If it comes under it will likely affect the 300 not necessarily the 80. Or the 80 could be 10! Who knows. But it’s all the bond holders fault for not signing over the cheque even though now you say they don’t know how much it’s for.

Still we will find out by march…

“ The Directors remain confident that the Bond Financing will be closed and that the Facility will be rolled into a new and larger facility. At this stage, however, there can be no certainty that the Company will receive the Bond Financing or that the Facility will be rolled into a new facility.

In the event that the Bond Financing does not complete and a new facility is not put in place before 23 March 2024, the Company will be required to seek alternative sources of funding to fund the future working capital and capex requirements of the Company, and to repay the Facility. ”

Usual caveats

Trek

Asia sell off ……

‘ A sizzling U.S. jobs report and an interview with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have quashed any lingering expectations of early rate cuts by the Fed, triggering a broad-based stock sell-off in Asia and leading bond yields higher.

In an interview with the CBS news show "60 Minutes", Powell said the U.S. central bank can be "prudent" in deciding when to cut interest rates, with a strong economy allowing policymakers time to build confidence that inflation will continue falling.’

Reuters

Trek

If you don’t think gas has a place as a long term energy solution for heat in the winter and aircon in the summer read at least the first half of this. A good w/e read by AOTH

https://aheadoftheherd.com/how-global-warming-will-drive-conflict-and-worsen-inequality-richard-mills/

Trek

the past dozen years have seen a rapid rise of leaders and prominent candidates who have threatened or outright abolished many of those foundations of democracy – despite continuing to hold elections. as such, 2024′s torrent of ballots is being anticipated by informed observers not with celebratory toasts, but with deep anxiety and ominous foreboding…

the article quotes the international institute for democracy and electoral assistance, which in its 2023 report, described 2022 as “the sixth consecutive year in which more countries have experienced net declines in democratic processes than net improvements.”

examples of democratic reversal include a wave of military coups, often with apparent russian backing, that swept across africa in 2022 and 2023, turning erstwhile democracies including gabon, niger, burkina faso, sudan, guinea, chad and mali into military autocracies. the military has similarly seized control, at least until february’s election, in ****stan, and effectively controls egypt…

march’s “election” in russia will be a coronation of president vladimir putin, who veteran globe and mail reporter doug saunders notes has killed or imprisoned all credible opponents. mexico’s president has vowed to shut down democratic oversight agencies and end freedom of information laws, ahead of the june election.

the article observes that the biggest reversals of democracy have not come from outrights coups, shifts to dictatorship, or revolutions. rather, they are instances of “democratic backsliding”, meaning things like centralization of power by presidents and prime ministers, manipulation of the elections and courts, and use of police and the military to maintain a grip on power.

the number of “electoral autocracies” has risen from 35 in 1978 to 56 in 2022. saunders describes these as countries with elections but with one party or leader more or less permanently in power, such as russia. they are now the second most common type of regime, with the most common being “non-liberal democracies”, which are countries with elections but without the institutions and rights of democracy.

https://aheadoftheherd.com/how-global-warming-will-drive-conflict-and-worsen-inequality-richard-mills/

good read

trek

“ In the meantime, I’m positioning myself for the coming interest rate cuts, and the subsequent weakening of the US dollar, by purchasing the shares of junior gold and silver companies, which offer great leverage to rising metal prices”

https://aheadoftheherd.com/want-to-know-when-the-fed-cuts-rates-watch-the-consumer-richard-mills/

Trek

I understand what DP is saying and I agree with the rational for raising capital to grab the kit.

My question remains is how do they make the new increased Riverfort payment (4%+ xtra) when the loan extension increases and pay the bi annual coupon on the $80m bonds at 8.5% -20%.

Revs for the last period were $310k positive but a run rate loss of $0.63m

Taking an optimistic 10% apr on the $80m means $4m in cash for the first coupon.

The debt terms of this nature often require cash for the next coupon on account. Another $4m. Thats to protect tier one lenders. Any breach of terms could result in a call on the bonds which would equal handing over the mine as they have no cash leaving shareholders with zilch!

I asked the Bod to outline the principles of payment even if they can’t give the details. Not had a reply and yet they have replied in the past.

A gradual bond draw down will help but once money finds another home it’s often not as easy as just moving it on a whim.

Using Riverfort to raise additional working capital may have prohibitions for using the money as debt payments. Like paying one credit card off with another… it’s not normally permitted.

Likewise you can’t get a mortgage to pay your mortgage, so why would bond holders want you to use their cash, which is for development of metals, to pay them back their own money.

Options are possible but we aren’t told.

That potentially leaves an asset sale to fund the deposits. Konnex the subsidiary that owns the mine will be used to underwrite the bonds, so that’s not realistically an option.

They have assets in KPX whether that is saleable I don’t know. The asset structure overlaps to offer layers of regulatory protection which is the norm.

The landscape now is completely different to what it was in May 21 when they announced..

“ our economic model … increases the NPV to $419 million. This is at the Empire starter pit alone. The $50 million capital required for construction would be repaid in less than one year in such a scenario, and we are already in discussions with several project finance funders with a view to providing this, with no further recourse to the equity markets.

Now it’s an initial $80m.

So many unanswered questions and not a track record of trust now. But if DP says they have the kit and all must be well he must be right again!

Usual caveats, from the sidelines.

GL

Trek

2.2m share trade.406k at 18.4545. Above mid.

Don’t see many of them here.

Usual caveats

Trek

“ Phoenix Group (PHNX) - is this the ultimate share to own for those approaching retirement?

Thu 11:03am by Sanjay

10 comments 350 reads

If you bought 1000 Phoenix group (LON:PHNX) shares now for £5.15 with yield of 10.2% - if you assume the dividend never goes up (it does) then your shares would be free after 7 years.

*** Correction**** From the 8th year onwards you would have an income of over £1K per year (compounded and growing) which if you bought an annuity would cost you £20K to achieve.

Additional bonus when you die that asset would be passed onto your children unlike an annuity.

Obviously this assumes the company continues to pay a dividend, but you would have hopefully capital gain as well.

Isn't this the ultimate share for those within 5-10 years of retirement?”

My thoughts exactly!

Trek

I sold in the 60’s as I figured the market would interpret the RNS as delays and is pretty brutal. I figured that as nothing was about to happen then sit on the side and buy back later getting more shares.

I expect others thought the same and are probably looking at the previous lows, as 50p has gone now, before averaging back in.

As far as the Bod and LTH’s are concerned there’s potentially much more value in the RNS just takes a bit longer.

I just spotted an opportunity, doesn’t change my views on DEST.

Usual caveats

Trek