Member Info for TrekMadone

AGFX had a bad year Tro - hedging strategy is good. They dipped on costs overrun. Now got new cfo and costs were one offs as tech and people cost more.

59p was way oversold imo. But then isn’t everything!

DEc that was a pretty good interview by Rusty- company been going for over 20years. They can’t see better value now than their own stock!

Vod - I was a tad worried but it’s picking back up. My trading hat says won’t be long before sticks over 70. If divi held then that’s a nice yield.

Mng been so strong of late. Recovers any retrace pretty quickly

Phnx - anything near 500p if I hadn’t already I’d throw the kitchen sink at it. Has to be in the crosshairs of a big euro annuity player at that sp after those results. For the sake of changing a few letter heads there’s huge savings potential from synergies and AI to be had imo.

Good to see some better news at ITM.

HVO heading above 30p imo. Traders likely selling around there atm.

He1….. drum roll for next week. Buy now sell at 4:29 if ya fancy a day trade lol! Mind you the MM’s have been crafty. Several times they NT sells and just allow buys so they can offload big blocks. Like at the last rise through 2p.

They shut the sell books, punters see the rise and the fools pile in thinking Christmas has arrived only to later find that they have just cleared a load of placing stock as the price crashes.

If you don’t have L2 you must look at what dummy sell liquidity there is as well as buy side liquidity.

I offloaded my DEST earlier in small chunks as there was no sell liquidity following their delay RNS. Will look to buy em back again later.

Hemo doing well good to see esp for LTH’s there

For every bright spark in biotech there’s ten down. I see POLX and SNG on its knees again!

Usual caveats

Trek

There’s plenty of scope in the model to have a year or more of just BB. The debt runs off naturally anyway. That’s the whole point. And with gas prices so low and increasing ESG regs more players will become stressed so better future prospects for us.

Head down drive down costs keep up volumes and bb stock and hold/increase dividends for now imo.

The yield will come down as the bb takes effect and the sp rises and they save cash on divi’s. There actually isn’t that many shares here in float.

Once sp changes momentum buyers wil, return for that yield imo and when we make an acquisition at least there will be less debt and less shares.

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Trek

I am surprised they RNS’d it tbh. One normally picks up on grants in other news.

I think it’s not the grant that they have signalled to the markets but what it is for!

There will be more grants along the way and continued NHI funding that won’t even get a mention.

Market probably thinks we raised 100k lol!

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Trek

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2024/02/01/central-asia-metals-a-real-lesson-in-diversification/

Trek

About time - hope Phnx sees sense!

I note wsbn have now invented a new type of placing - just a top up!

Paf results up 40%!

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Trek

He probably will after the close period.

As you know as well as being a long term investor trade some and hold some here to work my average.

From a trading perspective there are a few organic buy signals now

-900p supp establishing

-Pattern of BB’s emerging albeit still early days

-TU has guided us towards good finals.

-XD end of month and associated threat to loan stock having to cover the divi

-Finals which will include catalyst of ARO costs based on a year’s hard data. Excelling ESG regulations, debt repayments. Volumes and unit costs.

-End of close period poss director buys

-end of fiscal year balancing off loosing positions with winning positions.

If the short sellers fear any of this narrative then we could see a closing of positions which would result in a pretty rapid increase in sp. Yoh wouldn’t want to be the last short to close!

Of course there are numerous other events and potential events. These are just the ones I would be looking at esp if shorting the stock and looking to time an exit in profit.

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Trek

I have always said the dual listing was a step towards full us listing. Who can blame them they are getting zilch from London now other than paying fees!

They listed in uk coz it was easier to get cash, less regs for ipo etc.

It’s a new narrative now. London is a sht show.

Look at pHNx TU today beat all their guidance. Not only that but against a high interest, high inflation macro. That’s the very reasons for pinning the stock back but didn’t matter. They smashed it!

No doubt they will even raise divi above inflation. Yet shares are down today. Crazy!

Dec better off out of London which has fallen apart since Brexit.

Borris was the worse pm this country ever had imo. He was gifted so many open goal opportunities but fkd it all up. If he wasn’t such a snob and pss head and delivered capitalism with a social conscience they’d be heading for another landslide!

Now we will be going from one set of idiots to being run by a bunch of woke social workers!

Dec better off in the US, at least the politics there don’t pretend to be anything other than insane! lol!

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Trek

Absolute bonkers PHNX finished down on a sp that is already low after that update!

They have demonstrated growth in a high interest high inflation macro!

Looks like I will have to dig out the trading 101 again!

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Trek

“ M&G is also no longer at notifiable levels..,‘

Mng are uk issuer so it’s each 1% crossing above 3% see box 7. Total is 4.77% so they have to notify at 3.999% next.

If they dump all their stock then that means someone would have taken them up.

This imo is where the companies broker should use a bb pot for an OTC deal. You want out we will take the lot off you for 800p say!

Then cancel the stock.

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Trek

I guess we shouldn’t complain if the results keep exceeding guidance and the SP gets cheaper and the dividend increases!

Else it wouldn’t be a contrarian buy in terms of the market view.

I will add more if it goes below 500, 490 and 480.

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Trek

SEPL - nuts! Not complaining though as have a decent position there yielding 8.5%. That’s on my second time around!

Gotta be news soon as I posted before!

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Trek

Less than half doh!

Trek

Not sure where you are from Tav but we manage fine on over half that. Walking the moors, doing one’s own cooking and simple things are pretty inexpensive and still get away on a holiday.

I guess it’s all relative.

Trek

Well if your were going to add stock knowing news was due and it was outside a close period wouldn’t you get the other stuff out the way first to get the sp down then buy.

Sp up on what’s netted out as just 200k of buys. Crazy how it moves up and down on low volumes.

That’s what I say though, the mm needs volume to get paid. They earn zilch if folk just hold. Hence they take every opportunity to swing stocks even 10% on just a fraction of a % traded!

Gonna be a good year imo for IQAI and all things AI!

I am just sticking here until it plays out.

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Trek

Sparky,

I agree, but I don’t hold yu atm as I bagged lots here but now thinking of having another go.

AIM has lower reg compliance, esp with prospectus and you have to have a nomad to advise. Full listing you have your own brokers.

https://www.valuethemarkets.com/analysis/aim-listing-vs-standard-listing-main-market-whats-difference

Tbh with lower mcaps. It’s not the listing that’s important imo there just aren’t enough buyers in London atm. Look at Phnx results today absolutely out of the park + growth and yet sp still near all time lows!

You just gotta trade and or tuck away for better times.

Paying a higher divi here may help though. But even then there are solid 10% yielders around that still grow their divi!

It’ll come.

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Trek

That’s more like it +£100k of buys in first hour. There’s something happening somewhere that we haven’t picked up yet imo!

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Trek

Stick with likes of Phnx and mng their divi’s keep pace with inflation and I’d reinvest them at your age. Pick your own stocks if you can to avoid costs and fill up your Isa before a sipp. ISA more flexible.

Also you can hedge your gbp with usd payers like Gsk. Their results were good it’s turning now.

Try and spread your risk as well as age on your side.

Also look to US likes of VISA (V) and CRowdstrike (CRwd) are outstanding stocks to balance income reinvestment with long term capital gain.

If you have disposable income it’s easy. It’s those that don’t that things are virtually impossible!

Always remember the softer side of life. Money should give you time which should give you opportunities to do nicer things like charity work as well as just play golf! So stay grounded! Good luck.

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Trek

AB,

It’s not that simple. I retired with a v small pension at 51 and do this to subsidise my income. I always take cash and am an active investor.

Once Mrs Trek is 60 (who also hasn’t worked for 8 years) she will have a small pension. So between the two of us and with investments we should be fine.

So far I have managed 9 years from trading income and only started with 30k. There ya go!

All things are possible but never taken for granted and it’s not what you gain that’s important but what you give.

Trek

“ The Czech billionaire whose company takes over running the UK national lottery from Thursday is still in business with the Kremlin-owned gas company Gazprom, nearly two years after promising regulators he would sever ties with Russia.

The Gambling Commission awarded Allwyn the lucrative 10-year licence to run the lottery, estimated to be worth up to £100bn in sales, in March 2022.’

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/01/owner-of-uk-national-lottery-operator-still-in-business-with-gazprom?utm_term=65bb51efcd668c7b4b1b7e3a7200e3db&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

Makes one sick! But then folk slurp away on Russian vodka, bank in HSBC the oligarch and dictators bank and the tell us to buy electric cars whose raw products are mined by kids and processed in China! Crazy world!

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Trek

Hi AP,

Yes, I have a these in Mrs Treks ISA. They pay out in May and Oct 50/50.

I have other payers as well to give a lesser payment for 10 of the 12 months of the year.

All stocks no trusts, ETF’s or bonds.

Trek