Member Info for Tornadotony

I am hoping that both sides respond positively and constructively to the Iran peace proposal.

Thanks or cheering me up on what is an awful day in the markets. CD and viable. Credit BB for calling it yesterday although there was not that much I could do about.

I certainly feel like an idiot for buying just over 16.5p. Last time I buy in a placing - new golden rule.

Looks like a gap has been closed this side. Do we get back to 77p for the Aussie open?

We all voted in the summer to have the Uganda sale resolved by 23 October. The RNS last week said a few days and a week has passed. Tell the legal teams on both sides to get on with it.

Happy100

I agree on not going for 100% lock downs. To correct your statement the mortality rate on Covid-19 depending on demographics in any given population is 0.8% for the UK in first wave. Second wave should be 0.4% if health services use appropriate treatments. The mortality rate of influenza is 0.09-0.17% so its 2.5 times worse than the flu in UK. The mortality rate of non-Covid 19 health causes that are neglected as a result of a lockdown and not having adequate access or mental health mortalities is around 20,000 access deaths in the UK which is equivalent to those lost in an average influenza outbreak. So the net benefit is actually less than 0.06% on mortality. Far better to have a good advert campaign to keep everybody making best efforts not to spread.

Far more relevant than USA intervention. Both sides should take their effort seriously. Armenia need to smell the coffee and look for a deal rather than continue with a fight. Azeris need to think long term for genuine peace. Time to hammer out a deal please.

If gold price dips they probably still have 9,000 plus ounces of hedge to sell. I would have expected a hold here. The Barrack Gold shares must have changed hands by now. Where is the TR1.

I would say that I have applied BBs strategy to 1/8 of my portfolio so far. I can see that extending to a quarter but that is about it. A lot of my positions including Shanta are long term holds and I suspect the value of the pound or for that matter 16.1p is going to be far less in a few years so I am not sure actually matters trying to time the market.

I question if the public will be so compliant with future lock down strategies. First they are extremely fed up with it. We are losing far more lives on a daily basis on the impacts of Covid-19 rather than the virus itself. The number of suicides on London tube transport for example is very high from those who I know work in that sector. There is a health versus health conflict on top of economic arguments. The most popular adverts on the television during the day appear to be for funeral plans and to save the lives of donkeys which suggests proper advertising is on the back burner for many companies. The upshot is that who will police everybody's Christmas in a few weeks time and how many will try and find a flight somewhere to escape and who will police their return on the obedience to self isolation. In the end a lot of best efforts may be made and folks try to carry on living. The extensions etcetera to houses get built, that fancy Dyson vacuum cleaner gets bought by those with cash to spend. Somehow throwing in the towel just now and seeing everything crashes and we descend into what we have seen happening in Nigeria of late is the immediate direction we are heading. Thankfully here in Britain spitting image is making a comeback and that is the kind of spirit that may get us through a lot of idiocy. So whatever investment decisions one takes be sure to evaluate your risk tolerance and time scales to manage it. Its helpful to see Eva's views and BBs as they show active management strategies.

CD

Its a volume issue. Daily volume is 1/3 of normal for the past 4 sessions. The sell volume is not abnormal. Quite often we get 7p spreads between buy and sells and it can put the buyers off. Quite often the spread narrows late in the afternoon and what little buying occurs then happens. Overall we are waiting for a confirmed bottom an if we can close at 114p on the sell it would give a better chart. Sideways consolidation also helps.

The company surprised the market with a $180M better performance, retains dividend and pays back $500M of debts and the response is to tank it further. Bloomberg went on to trash BP early this morning despite those facts.

There are reasons why bone marrow transplants are not donated by the over 50's in the UK. The USA takes donors up to age 60 as they do not have an issue of only a 3% efficacy in the outcome for recipients where as the UK does see it as a waste of time. The bone marrow produces B cells which generate the antibodies and as we age some of the youthful hayfever and other over responsiveness disappears as the bone marrow is just less efficient. So having antibody waning in responses for older patients is to be expected. The key is what I mentioned before and that is having immunological memory. So a B cell with IgG4 receptors probably hidden somewhere in the spleen may hold the immunological memory and once exposed to the Covid-19 virus again that B cell multiplies and then repopulates the blood stream with a new concentration of antibodies. So overall the waning antibody concentration is not so much the issue, but the ability to retain immunological memory and replace it is what really generates the efficacy.

Needs to form higher low in the chart. Anything pushing us up from 112p would do it by close of today.

Lefty

I do feel a process has to be worked through with the Kenya Government. They will soon see the result of what will now happen in Uganda oil market development. Tullow should have someone from Kenya at CMD and also at some meetings with their Kenya project advisors and some minutes shared on what is economically possible with the asset. I suspect Kenya Government will then realise it has a major role in attracting inward investment and that large international companies have quite a major capacity to make future developments a reality. If they support Tullow's departure to a big major it has a win win outcome.

Once Tullow can deliver what is possible by a major oil company and what Kenya Government will do o heir side of the bargain and what the long term tax arrangements would be, Tullow would get an offer that is attractive enough to leave. I certainly believe $300M tax free is a good enough result. With $75M FID from Uganda it leaves $125M to find on future exploration block farm downs. I am sure if Tullow struck oil in Suriname, Shell or someone like it would offer a deal that would hit the $1B target.

Lefty

I do feel a process has to be worked through with the Kenya Government. They will soon seethed ad bad of what will now happen in Uganda oil market development. Tullow should have someone from Kenya at CMD and also at some meetings with their Kenya project advisors and some minutes shared on what is economically possible with the asset. I suspect Kenya Government will then realise it has a major role in attracting inward investment and that large international companies have quite a major capacity to make future developments a reality. If they support Tullow's departure to a big major it has a win win outcome.

Once Tullow can deliver what is possible by a major oil company and what Kenya Government will do o heir side of the bargain and what the long term tax arrangements would be, Tullow would get an offer that is attractive enough to leave. I certainly believe $300M tax free is a good enough result. With $75M FID from Uganda it leaves $125M to find on future exploration block farm downs. I am sure if Tullow struck oil in Suriname, Shell or someone like it would offer a deal that would hit the $1B target.

Should in theory remain above 19.25p. Fib lines tightened up from 20p to 20 .7p and without news the stochs descended to zero and Tullow bounced off a new support line. Overbought indicators from last week have worked through. Ready for a news SP rally if we get one.

Overnight Lynas was up again long with NdPr. This could finish the day on 72p on the buy imop.

Need a couple of pennies up today to stay on track.

Should be over 300p for 2021. In fact the correct valuation is around 340p after all the restructuring.

C1 and C2 early classification of reserves. P1 is a resource classification. What the RNS highlights is a need f r a negotiated peace at the end of the day so that everyone can have a better way of life.