Member Info for Tornadotony

Its now 8C in the mountains and the temperatures will soon be dropping further. I am not so sure the conflict is sustainable. Russia and Turkey are in talks and how this could be resolved. Does it become like a small Kosovo with the surrounding territory returned to Azerbaijan with Azeris guaranteed peace afterwards. It can be worked out if the politicians wanted it to be so.

Oil has edged and stored oil drawn nicely. Should be going up.

This will be 300p when the penny drops.

Could take quite a bit of time to sort out.

Aussie market edges up a little and share finds a base.

Likely to be saturated at 175p so do not expect it going any lower. The discount is quite reasonable considering its funding stage 3 trials in 20 countries. We are now beyond the peer review phase. I rebalanced my holding from a major overweight on the last drop to 150p where I wanted it to be after taking some off over the last two days. Certainly not selling what I hold to get it back at 175p and happy to reload at 175p if I can get some back. If this is reported in the news tomorrow , everybody and their pets will want a slice of the action.

On top of all that 20% of the share price is what they have as cash in the bank and that will be 25% in a few months time. I have a target range of 175-185p for the share when a peace deal finally takes hold that solves all the issues and they have all their new resources and reserves announced.

Certainly little evidence of profit taking in LSE UK. This got dumped on the Australia market big time and left UK seriously gapped down. All the trading side appears controlled by Aussie market with UK being the investor base. Hopefully it will go back up next week.

If it breaks this level a few BP holders will have an outbreak of Tourette's.

Yes this has got another kicker from somewhere.

This SP is getting so bad its beyond a joke.

Now running out of puff. Probably still close in the blue.

My alternative strategy of taking some monies off Tullow a month ago and investing elsewhere, has recovered losses on 25,000 Tullow shares all from trading Synairgen volatility. It has at least removed shares I bought on the Tullow retreat down from 30p. I have a large investment in Tullow but it has completed the first stage of a diet.

I topped up at 109p for 3p average down.

Q4 likely to be similar to Q3 or slightly better. Instead of being worth £2 a share without a conflict it may be just £1.75. This is well and truly priced in already. Company is $34.5M cash heading towards $40M cash.

To note- Average long term gold price was taken at $1700 per ounce. I am not sure if the rest of the industry is using such a high gold price in their economics for mine EBIDTA etc. It would be helpful to have financials for $1400, $1700 and $2000 gold price figures.

My best perfomer is Pensana. The RNS today was significant. Re-entered in the high 50's.
I have a little HZM and most people on that board think it will move to high 7's to round 12p.
Once a truce hold in Azerbaijan AAZ is likely to rocket up plus 70% with a special divi on top.
As for Synairgen 150p was bargain basement. If the right news hits it could break 250p this week.

Yes he does nickel. This is the only forum on LSE he writes on. Before it was Greatland Gold.

Just to let a few of you know that the Academic Stephen Holgate one of the Directors of Synairgen got a knighthood on Saturday. This is a huge week for that company. We have reason to believe that France may decide on 15/10 whether to be the first European country for their nebuliser interferon therapy. The relevance to oil is that if the therapy works against Covid-19, things will get back to normal a lot quicker. I will let folks know what actually happens.

1. Legal action against Ghana is no. The World Bank and USA Government forced the Ghana government into a deal with Eni. I am not sure if the off take agreement has a binding contract. Arrangements are reviewed probably twice a year. The Ghana government has also allowed flaring when absolutely needed to do so. Litigation gets in the way of working to a best outcome under prevailing circumstances.

2. Uganda is also no. All parties agreed to meet is the fall back as to why Uganda government is not proceeding. The only issue is whether the Uganda government is becoming insolvent to meet its project costs. If it becomes insolvent the Uganda asset is retained by Tullow oil on default and all those oil trucks in Kenya also return to Tullow ownership. The chances of tis happening must be highly remote.

In Government having a Sir coming to see you opens up a lot of doors, where as the common visitor people swim in the treacle of governance procedures and wait for ages.